After one and possibly THE hottest summers in US history, several of you are probably hoping for a change for this Fall and possibly Winter, too, I know I am. I have been working for the last several days to put together my Fall 2012 (August-October) and preliminary winter 2012/2013 (November-February) outlooks. Today, I am ready to release the 2012 Fall Outlook and will follow up within a day or so with the Preliminary Winter Outlook.
Beginning last autumn, the tropical waters of the Pacific cooled to the level in which a La Nina was present. The La Nina conditions existed throughout the Winter of 2011-2012 and continued into the Spring of 2012. Since late Spring and through this Summer, conditions have warmed and have been categorized as Neutral. Warming conditions are expected to continue through the next several months and continue right on through both this Fall and upcoming Winter seasons. In fact, conditions are expected to warm enough to be classified an El Nino. The El Nino conditions will play a bit of a role this Fall but will become a "major" player for this Winter. I will discuss this further in the winter outlook discussion.