After one and possibly THE hottest summers in US history, several of you are probably hoping
for a change for this Fall and possibly Winter, too, I know I am. I have been
working for the last several days to put together my Fall 2012 (August-October)
and preliminary winter 2012/2013 (November-February) outlooks. Today, I am
ready to release the 2012 Fall Outlook and will follow up within a day or so with
the Preliminary Winter Outlook.
Beginning last autumn, the tropical waters of the Pacific
cooled to the level in which a La Nina was present. The La Nina conditions
existed throughout the Winter of
2011-2012 and continued into the Spring of 2012. Since late Spring and through
this Summer, conditions have warmed and have been categorized as Neutral. Warming conditions are expected to continue
through the next several months and continue right on through both this Fall
and upcoming Winter seasons. In fact, conditions are expected to warm enough to
be classified an El Nino. The El Nino
conditions will play a bit of a role
this Fall but will become a "major" player for this Winter. I will
discuss this further in the winter outlook discussion.
