April 27, 2011 Tornado Outbreak: A Personal Look Back

On this anniversary of the largest tornado outbreak since the Super Outbreak of April 3/4, 1974, I wanted to reflect back to remember those that lost their lives (322), were hurt and lost property. I also wanted to take a moment, the first since the event, to write down my remembrance of the events of the day.  I will highlight some key events but for more specific details of the event that I may not mention here please be sure to visit the National Weather Service Huntsville Forecast Office's special look back page. Additionally, I will look at some of the education we received and what we should all have learned and be doing going forward.

One thing about this tornado outbreak that was a positive was the fact it did not occur as a complete surprise. As a meteorological community, this event was something initially detected as a possibility about a week in advance in some of the long range forecast models. As we drew closer and within a couple days, it was becoming clearer to the likelihood of a dangerous weather event in the near future. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), began to issue Moderate Risk of Severe Weather for a large area of the Southern Plains beginning on April 25th with the highest risk centered for the 25th over Arkansas. On the 26th, the risk was shifting eastward and was centered across the Mid-South. And on the 27th, a "High Risk" was issued, centered over the Tennessee Valley. The risk for tornadoes was also shown as 30% and later increased to 45%!

Snow for the Appalachians, Frost Possible into the Southeast

A late season NorEaster has already brought abundant rains to much of the coastal East Coast and now it is delivering a late season punch of snow and cold! The storm brought heavy rains to the I-95 corridor, Sunday, from Washington DC to Boston with a swath of 1"-3" falling. Now the cold is being entrained into the system and heavy wet snow is already falling across western Pennsylvania and western New York. 6"-12", isolated higher pockets, of heavy wet snow is likely across from northeastern West Virginia into western New York. This band includes such cities as Buffalo, NY; Altoona, PA, Morgantown, WV, Dubois, PA and Dansvill, NY.

The storm will be heaviest through this afternoon, however; some lingering lake effect snow bands will impact western New York through Tuesday morning. The bigger concern for Tuesday morning with be a late season frost potential. Patchy frost is possible as far south as Alabama and Georgia as temperatures will dip into the mid and upper 30s. A freeze is possible as far south as western North Carolina.

A gradual warming trend will then set in for much of the eastern half of the U.S. through the remainder of the work week. By the weekend, attention will again shift northward as another strong cold front is likely to sink south out of central Canada and into the central and eastern U.S. for early next week. At this time, it doesn't appear as cold as this shot but still chilly.

A Perfect Reason Why You Should Have Weather Call!

KWTV

Please read below for a sad story from this weekend's tornado outbreak in Oklahoma. Had these individuals had WeatherCall their lives may have been saved!

I have been urging my readers for three year's to subscribe to WeatherCall in order to receive timely and precise warnings of impending dangerous weather conditions. I have also spoken several times on how you can rest more comfortably when you have WeatherCall as you will get the notification you require even while you sleep. Now, many would say you get the same with a NOAA Weather Radio or the Tornado Sirens but how often have you been warned for a warning tens of miles away that has no impact on you? When that happens multiple times it is known that many users of Weather Radio tend to ignore issued warnings more often or simply turn their radio off when they go to bed.

If you are one that relies on the Tornado Siren to awake you to alert of a possible or impending tornado please be sure to read below.

Dangerous, Life Threatening, Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Later Today

A very dangerous situation is setting up for later this afternoon and evening across the Plains. Storms will develop rapidly along a cold front/dry line that will push out of the eastern Rockies and through the Plains. The most dangerous weather will exist over Oklahoma and Kansas where life threatening, large, long track tornadoes will be possible.

IT IS IMPERATIVE, that if you live from north Texas to southern Minnesota and especially from the Red River north to southern South Dakota, that you stay weather vigilant and aware. YOU NEED to have your severe weather preparedness plan in place and that should include:

• KNOW WHERE TO GO TO YOUR SAFE PLACE
• MONITOR LATEST WEATHER WARNINGS
• HAVE A WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WARNING NOTIFICATION SYSTEM (I RECOMMEND WEATHERCALL!)

Additional information and being severe weather prepared may be found in this previous post

FYI, some of you may notice some new wording today in your Tornado Warnings. This is a new method of highlighting a specific danger within a particular storm and is being test implemented in a few locations such as Topeka, Wichita and Kansas City. Below is a sample of what you could see or hear (the bolded information is the new text being test implemented):

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1057 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

 UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

AT 1052 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOUISBURG...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELTON...CLEVELAND...BUCYRUS...STILLWELL AND STANLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

New Tornado Emergency Warning:

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.


HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.


SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO.


IMPACT...COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS. TORNADO MAY BE UN-SURVIVABLE IF SHELTER IS NOT SOUGHT BELOW GROUND LEVEL.


TORNADO...OBSERVED


TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC


HAIL...2.50IN


I have already supported and endorsed WeatherCall for several years now but another reason to do so is they are working with the NWS to implement the new additional tornado warning information into the phone notifications to make sure you get the most accurate, precise and life saving information possible.

Please, Please, take all warnings very seriously today and GET WEATHERCALL!

ENTER TO WIN A YEAR OF WEATHERCALL FOR FREE BELOW

(A winner will be selected at NOON CT, Saturday, April 14, 2012 and will be notified via email. A response to the email will be required to obtain the gift certificate which will then be immediately available for usage)

Very HIGH Severe Weather Risk Saturday: NEW Exclusive WeatherCall Offer Can Keep You Safe

I am so proud of my newest partner because it is not only a Deal and a Steal but it can SAVE YOUR LIFE! For those who have been following this site for quite some time you know I have been discussing and promoting WeatherCall.  That is because I know how well it works and how it can SAVE LIVES during the most severe of weather conditions.  WeatherCall is an advanced weather notification system that provides you with timely, reliable and accurate weather warnings through multiple modes of notification.  From phone call messages to text messaging and email, too, you will never have to worry about missing a weather notification for your location.

Now, WeatherCall , The CouponCentsation and Doppler Dale are teaming up to provide you with this service with an added BONUS for just $9.95 a year. This new packaged deal, WeatherCall @Home, will not only provide you with the standard WeatherCall service (see below for additional details)  but also WeatherCall Wx Text, an additional $10 value. That is right, you will get both the standard WeatherCall service plus the WeatherCall Wx Text service for ONLY $9.95 a year!

This package deals is a BRAND NEW service and will provide you with additional warning notifications via text notification for three additional locations in addition to your set primary location, utilized for the standard WeatherCall service.  These additional locations can be your child's school location, your work location or a specific driving route. You will be able to set a central point. Around the central point you set,  a 5 mile warning monitoring box will then be drawn. When a warning is issued that crosses through the monitoring box a text notification will be issued to provide you with the notification you need to be safe. This service is so new that it will officially be rolled out early next week.

However, due the very "HIGH RISK" of severe weather from Oklahoma through Kansas and into Nebraska for Saturday, we have decided to offer the service now so that you can already get your primary service set up and implemented NOW to be safe for  any severe weather that may occur. Then, early next week, an email notification from WeatherCall will arrive in your inbox urging you to set up your BONUS service, WeatherCall Wx Text. At that time you will be able to set up your three additional warning locations.

As a meteorologist, I can attest strongly to the accurate, timely performance of WeatherCall. It is how I keep my family safe and I strongly encourage you to get  WeatherCall and keep your family safe. Jennifer and I can sleep at ease when severe weather is in the forecast because I know my phone will ring when a critical weather warning is issued for our home. That is how comfortable and confident I am in this service.

Standard WeatherCall Service Details

•        Valid for (1) Location (You Define the Location Precisely to a Physical Address)
•       Register Up to (3) Phone Numbers to Receive Warning Notification
•       Register Up to (3) Email Addresses to Receive Warning Notification and/or SMS/Text
•       Choose the Warnings To Be Notified for (Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm and/or Flash Flood)

WeatherCall  WxText Service Features

• Register An Additional Phone Number (Total of 4 numbers Weather Call + WxText)
• Choose (3) Additional Location Points to Set Warning Notification Monitoring Box
• Receive Text Messages for ALL National Weather Service Warnings

Severe Weather in the Southeast for Thursday

Already starting out the day with two tornado watches in effect and likely additional watches will be issued later today. A large area for potential severe weather exists over the Southeast and includes: Atlanta, Huntsville, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile, Tupelo, Jackson, Memphis, Nashville, Chattanooga, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa and Charleston.

As has been the case for most of the week, the main threat is for damaging winds and large hail; however, an isolated tornado is possible.

Stay weather aware through the day and as always advised, GET WEATHERCALL.

Record March Warmth to Give Way to April Storms/Rain Followed By an April Chill

March 2012 set records across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Plains and Rocky Mountain regions. Several locations saw the warmest March on record including: St. Louis, MO; Colubmia, MO; Springfield, MO; West Plains, MO; Vichy, MO; Kansas City, MO; St. Joseph, MO; Kirksville, MO; Sedalia, MO; Omaha, NE;, Lincoln, NE; Norfolk, NE; Cheyenne, WY; Goodland, KS; Burlington, CO; McCook, NE; Grand Island, NE; Hastings, NE; Kearney, NE; Loup City, NE; Sisseton, SD; Wheaton, SD; Pierre, SD; Kennebec, SD; Mobridge, SD; Timber Lake, SD; Rapid City, SD; Lander, WY; Casper, WY; Rock Springs, WY; Riverton, WY; Billings, MT; Miles City, MT; Sheridan, WY; Fargo, ND; Grand Forks, ND; Duluth, MN; International Falls, MN; Marquette, MI; Sault Ste. Marie, MI; Houghton Lake, MI; Alpena, MI; Traverse City, MI; Gaylord, MI; Detroit, MI; Flint, MI; Saginaw, MI; Grand Rapids, MI; Lansing, MI; Muskegon, MI; Milwaukee, WI; Madison, WI; Minneapolis, MN; St. Cloud, MN; Eau Claire, WI; Des Moines, IA; Waterloo, IA; Dubuque, IA, Moline, IL; Chicago, IL, Rockford, IL; South Bend, IN; Ft. Wayne, IN; Jackson, KY; London, KY; Bowling Green, KY; Lexington, KY; Louisville, KY; Cincinnati, OH; Columbus, OH; Dayton, OH; Indianapolis, IN; Nashville, TN; Memphis, TN; Jackson, TY; Tupelo, MS; Jonesboro, AR; Paducah, KY; Evansville, IN; Springfield, IL; Tulsa, OK; Ft. Smith, AR

WOW! In most of these locations did not just set new records they shattered the old ones!

Now for the changes that are on their way. First, let me discuss the expected changes towards more rain and storminess through much of the Midwest, Delta and into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley. Currently, an upper level storm system is slowly heading east out of the Four Corners region. This is easily seen in the latest water vapor imagery.

In advance of this system is a stiff southerly flow that has continued the record warmth of March right into April with more record highs being set, Monday. However, it has also drawn northward a separate piece of energy that has spawned strong to severe thunderstorms across northeast Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. The area of rain and storms is weakening as it lifts east and northeast through Mississippi and some of the rain will hold together to creep into western Alabama, tonight. Additionally, showers will continue to wrap around the center of the energy across Arkansas, too.

Back to the main storm system. Along the front edge of the upper system, a cold front is located that stretches from Minnesota into eastern Kansas and then into northern New Mexico. The storm system is firing a second area of strong to severe storms across southern Kansas into the Panhandles of TX and OK.

TUESDAY
The entire storm system will slowly progress eastward, Tuesday. The fastest progressing portion of the entire system will be the northern edge of the cold front which will move into the Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley. The main core of the system; however, only tracks into the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma with the cold front making it into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Quite a bit of showers and thunderstorms will take place along and south of I-70 from Missouri to the Gulf Coast and as far east as the Tennessee Valley. Severe weather will also be a possibility near to and ahead of the main storm system across eastern OK/TX.

SNOW...Yes, snow, will be possible on the back side of this system across the Rockies of Colorado.
Some of the eastern slopes, especially south of Denver, could see a fresh 8" to 10".

As you can already see, some colder air is once again intruding back into the lower 48 and into some of the same areas that saw record warmth in March and this is just the tip of the iceberg.

WEDNESDAY
By Wednesday, the main core of the storm system begins to open up and that means it will begin to progress eastward faster and will also not draw the cold air as far south and east. The cold front will stretch along and south of the Ohio River back into the St. Louis metro area and then southward through east Texas into Louisiana. Again, widespread rains and thunderstorms are expected from Missouri to the Mid-Atlantic with activity become more scattered further south towards the Gulf Coast.

REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK & EASTER OUTLOOK
The storm will finally exit of the southeastern U.S. coast by Saturday morning; taking with it the rain. High pressure will build in behind it and sunny and pleasant conditions with cooler, more seasonal temperatures can be expected for Saturday. On Easter Sunday, another storm heads out of the Plains and into the Midwest with a stronger cold front associated with it. A line of showers and storms will likely accompany the front. The rain will spread into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes by late on Easter.

Behind this system temperatures will hold much closer to normal. Yet another storm is likely to follow digging southward out of central Canada, late next week. This should help continue a trend of flipping the weather pattern that we have seen since February with a warm ridge over the central/eastern U.S. and a trough in the West and instead set up a cool trough in the East and a ridge over the West.