90s Arrive Early, No It's Not An April Fool

If you think it has been warm to hot already this Spring you have been correct. March 2012 is on pace to be one of, if not the warmest, March on record for several locations and as we head into April the early warmth won't let up. In fact, 90s are on their way!

As we head through this weekend and into the start of April, a ridge, located over the Rockies, will begin heading east into the Plains and the Midwest as a powerful trough pushes through the West Coast. The ridge will contain some of the warmest temperatures we have seen yet this season. This will be due to nearly perfect conditions setting up. A strong cold front along the edge of the trough will be pushing eastward and compressing air in its advance. The air will be dry and able to warm easily and a general southwest flow will be present.

The end result, temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and even to 90 degrees across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Sunday and Monday.

Isolated Severe Storms Possible Across Illinois and Missouri, Tuesday

As a cold front slides southeast out of the central/northern Plains later this afternoon and tonight a few thunderstorms will fire in its vicinity. A few of these storms may become severe with gusty winds and hail the main concerns; however,  an isolated tornado is possible, too.

This front is weak and as a result, little in the way of cooling will occur behind its passage. The front will make its way into the lower Ohio Valley and upper Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. This will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms near the front, once again. And again, a few of these thunderstorms may become severe with wind and hail remaining the main concern.

A second area of potential severe weather will be possible, Wednesday, across the Southern Plains. Here a surface low will be found and it will be lifting a warm front back northward and a complex of storms are anticipated along and ahead of the warm front. A few additional storms could fire south of the warm front in the more moist and unstable air.

Rain, Rain and More Rain

Estimated Tuesday Rainfall

Slowly east goes the system that has been plaguing the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley for the last several days. This evening, the rains have progressed into Mississippi and slowly the entire mass will shift east while the individual rain pockets and storms lift northerly. As of this writing, 6:30 pm CT, already 2" to 4" of rain had fallen across much of Mississippi and another 2" to 4" is likely to fall across the southeastern quarter of the state. With up to an inch of rain falling as far north as the mouth of the Ohio River.

System Slows Down to Crawl: Leads to Abundant Rain and Flooding

The storm system of change is slowing down to nearly just a crawl and that means more heavy rains for areas already seeing plenty of it across Arkansas, east Texas and Louisiana.

Already 3" to 6" or rainfall has fallen from south and east of the Dallas-Ft.Worth Metroplex northeastward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

On Wednesday, more heavy rains are expected across much of Arkansas and through Louisiana and when it finally winds down early Thursday some portions of western Louisiana could be pushing close to 10" in total!.

Slow Moving Storm Finally to Bring Change in the East

Weather.com

The weather pattern has not changed a whole lot in about a week but it will gradually change as we head through this week. Currently, a large trough is situation over the Rockies with a cold front along its eastern edge stretching through the Plains from the border of the Dakotas/Minnesota into central Oklahoma and through the heart of the Lone Star State.

In advance of the cold front lies a dominating ridge that is in control over the eastern U.S. It is strongly responsible for the abnormally warm temperatures that those of us in the East have experienced since late last week and will continue to experience for a few more days.

Unusual March Warmth Continues; Will Lead to Sct'd Strong to Severe PM Storms

No significant change in the weather pattern is in sight for the near term. In fact, likely no significant changes will take place until the middle-end of next week. At that time, it is possible that not only a change will occur by one of notice.

Until then, though, the unusual warmth for March will continue for the eastern half of the U.S. This warmth will help to fire off daily afternoon thunderstorms and a few of the storms will become strong to severe with gusty winds and some hail. Today, the highest chances of this occurring is from the Ohio Valley back into the Mississippi Valley.

Little Change in the Weather Pattern for the East through the Week: Stays Very Warm

Records Set in the Last Week

An unusally warm weather pattern will persist through the remainder of the week for the eastern half of the U.S. Temperatures have already been well above normal with hundreds of records being already set and they will continue to remain well above normal and additional records are likely to be set in many locations. Here is list of some of the notable high temperature records from the past couple of days courtesy of AccuWeather.com 

Slight Risk of Storms for the Great Lakes and TN Valley, Today

A piece of upper level energy will be swinging through the Great Lakes, today, and will interact with a warming surface to help develop thunderstorm activity this afternoon. A few of these storms could become severe with strong damaging winds and a few widely isolated tornadoes. The highest threat will exist during the mid afternoon  through evening hours from the Chicagoland region through much of lower Michigan.

Another region of potential severe thunderstorm development will stretch from western Tennessee into northeast Mississippi and northwest Alabama for this afternoon. Again, strong damaging winds is the main concern.

Winds Howl, A Warm Up & Then More Storms

Oh, the wind will be a howl'n through much of the eastern U.S. on Wednesday. From the Mississippi river eastward through the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, over to the Mid-Atlantic and up into New England the flags will be flapping and many of you will have to hold on to your hats. Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts likely can be expected.

The wind and the upper level weather pattern of a ridge will provide for mild conditions over the East with temperatures spiking into the 70s as far north as the Ohio River.


A cold front will begin knocking on the western edge of the warmth across the Plains, Wednesday, and will continue to push east-southeast through the remainder of the week. This frontal boundary will become the next focus for another round of storms. Scattered storms will develop along and ahead of the front from Kansas into the Great Lakes, Wednesday PM. The storminess will spread into New England and the Ohio Valley by Thursday PM. The good news is that severe weather is not expected but some heavy rains will b possible

The front will also usher in noticeably cooler temperatures, one again. With temperatures, behind the front about 20-25 degrees colder than at the peak of the warm up this week.

Quieter and Milder Weather For Storm Ravaged Portions of the Nation

For the next several days a much quieter and milder weather pattern will be setting up along and east of the Mississippi river. The only negative weather feature will be increase southerly winds that will make it breezy. The breezy conditions will first impact the Plains, Tuesday, with winds 20-30 mph possible, especially over Kansas and Western Missouri. The breezy conditions will push east and south on Wednesday, with winds 15-25 mph possible from Oklahoma into Illinois.

The positive is that the wind will blow in much warmer temperatures. Afternoon highs, Tuesday, will climb into the 70s as for north as northern Nebraska with 80s possible from southwest Kansas through eastern New Mexico/western Texas. The 70s spread east into the Mid-Mississippi river Valley, Wednesday; into the southern Virginia, Thursday.



Unfortunately, the quiet weather will only be for a few days as a cold front will be pushing south and east, again, through the second half of the week. This will bring back the storminess with some strong storms possible but lets enjoy the next couple of days first.

Tornado Ravaged Ohio Valley To Get a Coating of Snow

Intellicast.com

Just two days after being ravaged by intense tornadoes, the same portions of the Ohio Valley will be visited by winter, once again. A "Clipper" system will be diving southeast in the jetstream flow, Sunday. As it exits Illinois and begins to enter into northwest Kentucky, it will begin to tap into moisture. With temperatures and atmospheric conditions plenty cool the precipitation will fall in the form of snow!

WxCaster.com

The snow will move out of Iowa and into northwest Illinois by late Sunday morning. By evening, the snow will begin to fly along the Ohio River and continue to streak southeast. The snow will intensify over southern Illinois and into Kentucky where a swath of 1" to 2" of accumulation is possible.

Unfortunately, this will just add to the harshness many in the region or already having to deal with and will make putting lives back together a bit tougher to do.

Dangerous Severe Weather Situation for Friday: Tornado Outbreak Possible

A significant and dangerous severe weather outbreak is likely to occur, Friday, across the lower Ohio Valley and northern Tennessee Valley. The conditions will be becoming favorable for rapid storm development during the late afternoon hours and continuing through the evening. Several of these storms will become severe with winds in excess of 65 mph, large hail. I also anticipate several storms to include tornadoes with some of these becoming large and long track, the most dangerous. To help you be more prepared with this dangerous situation I want to break it down into regions. Please review further for your location.

Significant Severe Weather Expected Friday OH Valley/MidSouth/TN Valley

Not going to go into much, right now, as thoughts from last night still look good. As mentioned, though, in the previous post, I expected a Moderate Risk to be outlined by SPC for Friday and that is the case, this morning. Still believe the highest threat is going to be through Tennessee into southern Ohio but don't let your guard down in Mississippi, Alabama and southern Indiana.

I will provide an updated detailed discussion later this evening.

Be Safe and Be Ready