Repeat Severe Weather Event: Friday

Harveyville, KS (AP)

One storm system is pulling up and out but behind it is destruction in several places. Some of the worst damage occurring in Branson, Missouri, Harrisburg, IL, near Smithville, TN and in Hardin County Kentucky south of Elizabethtown.

There will not be much time to do clean up and get settle back in as another storm is already on this first one's heels. It is easily seen on the water vapor imagery spinning over northern Idaho. A second piece of energy and the one that will become the focus for Friday will be diving southward behind this main piece of energy. Through Thursday, the main system will lift eastward along the U.S./Canadian border while the secondary energy will be diving through Nevada and into southern Utah. This will allow for more snow to fall in the mountains of Nevada and Utah.

Be Safe In Times of Severe Weater: Have a Severe Weather Safety Kit

Tomorrow is the meteorological beginning of Spring but already we have seen several rounds of severe weather across portions of the nation. As we continue through the Spring severe weather occurrances will increase so I wanted to take this opportunity to help provide you with some ways to stay safe and to recommend to you a severe weather safety kit.

Storm Safety
Here are a few procedures you should take in the event of a tornado. This information was obtained from the National Weather Service. You can read their full safety guide for staying safe in all kinds of severe weather including thunderstorms, lightning, flooding and tornadoes here.

Tornado Safety Tips

• Get below ground if at all possible or into a storm shelter/safe room
• If you can't get below ground and/or no safe room is available get into a small, windowless, interior room such as a hallway or closet on the lowest level of the building
• If you are outdoors, seek shelter immediately. 
• If shelter is not easily available drive to nearest shelter
• While driving, if debris becomes present do one of the following:
• Pull over and park and stay in vehicle with seat belt on. Put your head down and cover with your arms and hands and a blanket if possible
• If you can get safely into a culvert or below the level of the roadway, exit your car and lie in that area and cover your head with your arms and hands

Moderate Risk for Severe Weather Across the Southern Ohio Valley & TN Valley

Harrisburg, IL: KMOX (St. Louis)

A strong storm system continues to assist in firing dangerous thunderstorms this morning from Kentucky into northwest Tennessee. The storms from last night and earlier this morning were powerful from southern Missouri into southern Illinois where at least 10 people were killed in a possible tornado in Harrisburg, Illinois, southeast of St. Louis, and at least another 2 were killed in the Missouri Ozarks. A likely tornado also struck the recreation center of the Ozarks, Branson, Missouri. Damage is reported to be extensive in both locations with even some of the famed theaters of Branson being impacted.

Severe Weather Spreads into Ohio/TN Valleys Wednesday, Another Round Friday

weather.com

Active Springtime weather will continue through this week with another round of severe weather likely, Wednesday afternoon and evening. as a cold front continues to progress east out of the Mid-Mississippi River valley. The storms will begin firing over central Tennessee and northwest Alabama near lunchtime and spread eastward through the afternoon. By sunset, the storms will be nearing the western Appalachians. Main threat with these storms will be gusty winds.

Severe Weather To Take Place This Evening and Tonight: Mid-Mississpi Valley and MidSouth

Already seeing some initial rain and thunderstorms in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, this afternoon, associated with a lifting warm front. This will continues to lift north-northeastward through the afternoon and evening allowing warm and more unstable air to ride northward. This area of rain and a few storms will also lift north-northeast. As it does a few of the storm may briefly become strong to severe with gusty winds. The bigger threat for severe weather arrives with an approaching cold front. Currently, the cold front is exiting the Rockies and will be crossing through the Plains. This will become the focal point for storm development across central Kansas southward into Oklahoma between 6pm-8pm this evening. The storms  could become strong to severe with gusty winds but as the line moves into Missouri and Arkansas late tonight the threat for isolated tornadoes will be there, especially along and north of I-40 and through the Missouri Ozarks.

AccuWeather.com

The system will spawn more thunderstorms that could become severe, Wednesday PM, east of the Mississippi river into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Will discuss this further later this evening

Three Rounds of Severe Weather Likely Before the Week is Done

Talked last evening about the strong system poised to eject out of the West and as it does it sets up for the potential for severe thunderstorms in the Plains eastward into the Mid-South and Mid-Mississippi River Valley,  Tuesday PM. This still looks on track and little in my thoughts have changed.

At this point, it appears the storms may peak a bit later than earlier thought, more in the time frame 10pm-2am with the highest concern occurring along and north of I-40 in Arkansas, northward into southern Missouri. A few tornadoes will be possible so if you live in Arkansas and southern Missouri you need to be weather aware. Night time, especially during these hours is horrible for severe weather as many individuals become less aware of the ongoing/approaching dangers. For this reason be sure to have a weather radio, or better yet, GET WEATHERCALL!

University of Missouri's Dr. Anthony Lupo Release Midwest Summer Outlook

I can't disagree much with what Dr. Lupo, University of Missouri Doctor of Meteorology,  has to say here in this outlook for those of you in the Midwest. I will release some of my own detail thoughts from the Midwest into to the TN Valley, soon,

Watch the video below for his outlook for this summer:

Trough To Swing East: Will Bring Storms, Some Severe to Nation's Midsection

WeatherBank

In general, the jet stream pattern across the lower 48 this Sunday is a trough along the Pacific Coast with southwest flow over the center of the nation and a ridge poking up along the Appalachians. As we head towards midweek, the trough in the West will begin swinging east and deepening. By Tuesday morning, the main energy will be ejecting through the Four Corners with an associated surface low in eastern Colorado. A warm front will stretch east from the low through the Plains with a cold front trailing southward into West Texas.

Rare Night Time Viewing Opportunity: See 6 of the Night's Brightest Objects At Once

Several neat viewing opportunities will be taking place in the night sky. Right now, through the 26th, head out in the evening shortly after sunset, look west and you will see the crescent moon, Venus and Jupiter all in alignment. You will be able to easily identify Venus and Jupiter. Venus will be the brightest object besides the moon. The next brightest object is Jupiter. As the next few days pass the moon will be passing Venus and climbing higher into the sky.

Another unique viewing opportunity will be seeing six of the seven most brightest objects in the night sky all at the same time! Through the first few days of March, head out 30-60 minutes after sunset and look upward. You will see, in order of brightness, the Moon, Venus, Jupiter, Sirius, Mars, Mercury and Canopus.

For more information on these viewing opportunities be sure to visit skyandtelescope.com

Severe Weather Expected for Ohio & Tennessee Valleys, Today (Thursday)

A strengthening storm system in Missouri will be heading east into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. As it does so, it will encounter a warm airmass with temperatures rising up into the mid 60s as far north as the Ohio River and 70s up to the I-40 corridor.  Behind the front, sharply colder with snow, some heavy, expected to progress eastward with the system along the I-80 corridor.

This mix in airmasses plus the dynamics associated with the strengthening storm system equals the potential for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms late this afternoon through the evening hours, today, in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Severe Weather Remains Possible Thursday: Ohio/Tennessee Valleys

Just finished looking over the newest model guidance and still believe a threat for severe weather exists for Thursday afternoon through midnight Friday. As mentioned in the last briefing, a strong cold front will be exiting the center of the nation and progress eastward into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley through Thursday. In its advance, warm and somewhat moist air will be found. Behind the front sharply colder with snow to the north.

This combination plus additional atmospheric forcing will set the stage for storm development beginning late afternoon, Thursday. Initially developing across the Bootheel of Missouri and northeast Arkansas and explode further and form a line as they cross over the Mississippi River into Tennessee, Kentucky and Mississippi.

Live Weather Briefing at 1:30 PM

Stay tuned for the live weather briefing that will be held right here at 1:30 pm CT Wednesday.


Streaming video by Ustream

Severe Weather Possible Today and Thursday

Last night, I discussed the possibility for severe weather on Thursday but there is also a threat for portions of the Southeast, today. This includes the Tennessee Valley, eastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas.

A trough is moving eastward through TN/KY today and it has had showers and t-storms associated with it. The winds flowing out from this area of precipitation will create a new boundary that will sink into northern Alabama and northern Georgia this afternoon. As it does, it will enter into an environment that is likely to become more unstable as the day progresses.

Currently, there is abundant cloud cover over much of the TN Valley; however, a few breaks in the overcast are likely and that will help to warm the surface and destabilize the atmosphere. In addition, surface winds will be increasing, today. As a result, enhancement and new development of storms are expected this afternoon.

Stronger thunderstorms are expected to begin developing from northeast Mississippi into northwest Alabama between 2-4 PM. These storms will reach the I-65 corridor by 6 pm and enter into northern Georgia by Midnight. These strong storms could reach into central Alabama and affect the Birmingham metro area in addition to the Tennessee Valley. The main threat for severe weather with these storms will be gusty damaging winds but a few isolated tornadoes are possible, mainly along and south of the Tennessee River.

Still expecting a BIGGER widespread threat for severe weather on Thursday. I will discuss in more detail plus  discuss a few recommend ways to stay save during severe weather, right here, live at 1PM CT, Wednesday afternoon. Please join me.

Severe Weather Potential Thursday PM from Ohio Valley to Gulf Coast

A powerful storm system will spin out of the center of the nation and through the Ohio Valley, Thursday, with a trailing cold front. In advance of the cold front, temperatures will climb into the 70s from the Carolinas, through the Southeast with 80s into Texas. Mid 60s will even be possible as far north as the Ohio River.

Air behind the cold front will be sharply colder and highs are Friday will be down into the 50s for portions of the Southeast with 40s back into the Ohio Valley. A one day difference of up to 30+ degrees. This plus additional atmospheric dynamics will lead to the potential for severe weather Thursday late afternoon into early Friday morning from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. The threat will include all of the major variables: hail, strong damaging winds and even some tornadoes.

Fine tuning of the forecast will take place over the next 24 to 36 hours; however, it is advised that you have your severe weather preparations in place if you live in the shaded zone in the graphic at right. This means knowing where to go in the event a warning is issued for your location and to have proper means to being notified. I will talk about some of these items in a special live briefing to discuss specifically the forecast and WeatherCall and NOAA Weather Radio, Wednesday afternoon at 1 pm. If you can't make it here at that time I will be sure to post a recorded video of the briefing.

Winter Returns to the Mid-Section and Southeast

Definitely a change has returned with temperatures struggling to climb above freezing in the TN Valley and stuck into the 20s up into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The next change will be the return of winter precipitation Monday-Tuesday.

Along and north of the Ohio River, the precipitation will be in the form of snow. Further south, a wintry mix and finally just cold rain is anticipated. Could be a bit interesting for a period of time in portions of the TN Valley, Monday night into Tuesday morning, as precipitation could begin as snow transitioning to all rain with some icing possible, too. At this point, still too far out to nail down the specifics but something to monitor.

Right now, appears the heaviest snowfall will streak out from the Ozarks into western Kentucky with 2" to 4" possible. Further north, up to the I-70 corridor, the snowfall will be lighter, generally 1" to 2"

Follow me on Facebook for the latest details and thoughts on this event.

Groundhog Day 2012 Outcomes

It has been a mild winter for many of us this year. This has gone against my prediction for the winter season and now I am beginning putting together my Spring/Summer and Hurricane Outlook but several furry prognosticators have beaten me to the punch with their outlook for the next 6 weeks.

So will Spring be springing up early this year where you live, already feels like Spring here in the Tennessee Valley with daffodils and some trees in bloom, or will winter hold on? Here are the predictions our groundhog forecasters have made: