The Perfect Storm Brewing? Damaging Winds, Flooding Rains, Coastal Storm Surge and Heavy SNOW

I briefly eluded, earlier this week, the possibility that Hurricane Sandy could become a concern for the East Coast of the United States and now I am convinced that this will be the case.  Sandy, still a hurricane as of 5pm ET (10/26) with minimal hurricane force winds of 75 mph. She is moving to the north at 7 mph and the minimum central pressure is rising based on hurricane hunter observations. This is good as it shows Sandy is beginning to weaken but don't let that fool you as she is still going to provide for quite a punch.

Model Forecast Tracks for Sandy

Over the next couple of days, Sandy will track to the north-northeast in response to an approaching trough and cold front over the eastern half of the U.S.  She will predominately hold the strength of a category 1 hurricane but may briefly weaken into a strong tropical storm. That means winds will be generally between 65 to 80 mph.  As a result of this track, the worst of the weather, strongest winds and heaviest rains, will remain just off the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend.

Model Forecast of Potential Storm Surge

That will change as we head into Monday. At that time, Sandy will be drawn westerward into the base of the trough and she will merge with a piece of secondary energy diving southeastward out of Canada. This is when Sandy will morph into a potential PERFECT STORM with winds of 70-90 mph, flooding rains and a coatal storm surge of more than 6 feet whipping the coast. The precise track of Sandy will determine the exact location of the worst storm surge. As of today, the track is likely to cross southern New Jersey and head inland into Pennsylvania. This would push the worst surge up to Long Island back into the Hudson River basin and northern New Jersey.

Additionally, some heavy, early season snow is possible across the Appalachians of West Virginia and Pennsylvania with the potential for snowfall in excess of 12".