Tropical Depression 7 Should Soon Be TS Gordon

Tropical Depression 7, located about 700 miles east of St. Lucia (as of 2:30pm CDT) and continues to progress westward at about 23 mph. As of the last report from the NHC, 11 am AST, they were estimating winds of 35 mph, just below tropical storm strength. Current satellite estimate, 12:45 CDT, indicated maximum estimated winds of 54 mph. I believe this estimate is too high but it is likely that TD7 is nearing or already at Tropical Storm, which would be Gordon.

 Convection near the center of circulation is well defined and good outflow is also present. With that being said and the fact that the system will continue to move into favorable conditions, it should slowly continue to intensify.


This system will continue to track west and will pass through the Lesser Antilles, as a Tropical Storm, Saturday afternoon and evening. The track of the center of circulation should pass near Martinique and St. Lucia. The storm will then continue to track west at a fairly quick clip, similar to that of Ernesto before it. It will pass south of Puerto Rico, Sunday afternoon and then south of Jamaica Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Beyond Tuesday, the track will strongly be dependent on the strength of the area of high pressure  to the north over the central Atlantic. If it continues to hold its strength, this storm will track again towards the Yucatan of Mexico. If it weakens some, the storm will be allowed to curve northward and into the Gulf of Mexico.

As mentioned last evening, a second tropical wave was moving off the west coast of Africa and likely would also intensify into a tropical storm. This doesn't appear as likely today as it will be moving over colder waters and likely not intensifying much. That could change in about 3 to 5 days when it will be in more favorable conditions.