Isaac Nears Key West, Eyeing Landfall Along Northern Gulf Coast (Next Live Update at 8pm CT)

Isaac has done little in the way of intensification since last evening. As of 2pm EDT, the center of Isaac was located about 50 miles SSE of Key West, Florida with a movement to the WNW (300 degrees) at  18 mph. Minimum central pressure has dropped 3 mb since last evening and now is down to 994 mb and the corresponding maximum winds are 60 mph.
(Update due to current hunter mission (2:20pm CT: Pressure 992 mb abut 38 miles south of Key West)

Isaac is rather large with a diameter of about 700 miles and with tropical storm force winds extending out 205 miles from the center. Widespread steady, occasionally heavy, rainfall extends from Orlando, Florida southward to the Florida Keys, total encompassing the lower half of the Florida peninsula. Winds have been gusting to up around 40 mph across southeastern Florida, in and around the Miami metro area. The main concern for the Florida peninsula will be the potential for a few embedded tornadoes. A tornado watch is in effect until 5 pm EDT and could potentially be extended through the evening hours until Isaac begins to pull away, overnight.

Hurricane Models and DD Forecast

Isaac will remain a tropical storm as he pass near the southern Florida Keys, this afternoon, around 4:30 pm. He will then continue to track to the WNW and eventually generally NW tonight and continuing into Monday. As they did yesterday, the models continue a trend further to the west and the consensus now point to a landfall near the Mississippi Delta of southeast Louisiana, late Tuesday/early Wednesday, as a potential strong category 2 hurricane or minimal category 3 hurricane. The forecast is still uncertain, though, as some of the models track the "eye" as far west as Lake Charles, LA and as far east as Pensacola, Florida. Because there is such differences in the guidance, I am chosing to leave my forecast alone, for now. Part of this is the drastic difference in between the 12z GFS and the 12z ECMWF. The GFS, as mentioned, tracks Isaac towards southwest Louisiana while the European tracks it towards Mobile. A difference of over 300 miles. Until better agreement can been seen persistance is the best idea. Please, though, if you live from near the TX/LA border to the western panhandle of Florida you need to be prepared to take action for the possibility of a strong Isaac arriving.

I will provide another "LIVE" video update this evening but a bit earlier than the past few nights due to prior other engagements. As a result, the time will be at 8pm CDT.

Thanks and be safe

Dale