(Update due to current hunter mission (2:20pm CT: Pressure 992 mb abut 38 miles south of Key West)
|Hurricane Models and DD Forecast|
Isaac will remain a tropical storm as he pass near the southern Florida Keys, this afternoon, around 4:30 pm. He will then continue to track to the WNW and eventually generally NW tonight and continuing into Monday. As they did yesterday, the models continue a trend further to the west and the consensus now point to a landfall near the Mississippi Delta of southeast Louisiana, late Tuesday/early Wednesday, as a potential strong category 2 hurricane or minimal category 3 hurricane. The forecast is still uncertain, though, as some of the models track the "eye" as far west as Lake Charles, LA and as far east as Pensacola, Florida. Because there is such differences in the guidance, I am chosing to leave my forecast alone, for now. Part of this is the drastic difference in between the 12z GFS and the 12z ECMWF. The GFS, as mentioned, tracks Isaac towards southwest Louisiana while the European tracks it towards Mobile. A difference of over 300 miles. Until better agreement can been seen persistance is the best idea. Please, though, if you live from near the TX/LA border to the western panhandle of Florida you need to be prepared to take action for the possibility of a strong Isaac arriving.
I will provide another "LIVE" video update this evening but a bit earlier than the past few nights due to prior other engagements. As a result, the time will be at 8pm CDT.
Thanks and be safe