Monday, August 27, 2012
Hurricane Issac Tracking West: May Not Be As Strong
Looking at the current intensity and speed and general forecast, Isaac will likely have a tough time, now, strengthening into a "Major" hurricane, good news for Louisiana. As a result, the biggest difference in my current forecast versus that of last evening is the change in intensity and the speed of arrival. I am now going to forecast a strong category one to a weak category 2 hurricane with winds 90 to 100 mph when making landfall along the central Louisiana Gulf coast around Midnight (CDT), Tuesday night. It will track near Timbalier Bay and through Terrebonne Parish. The track will then continue off to
the northwest with a heading near Morgan City around sunrise, Wednesday and then to near Lafayette by Wednesday evening. The item of concern is the speed of the storm as it nears the coast. Majority of the modeling data suggests some slowing down of forward speed. As a result, a prolonged period of strong winds and pounding surge is possible.
I am in generally good agreement with the NHC official forecast, however; based on current location and movement I have modified the forecast further to the west and away from New Orleans but now Lafayette lies in the path.