Slow Moving Storm Finally to Bring Change in the East

Weather.com

The weather pattern has not changed a whole lot in about a week but it will gradually change as we head through this week. Currently, a large trough is situation over the Rockies with a cold front along its eastern edge stretching through the Plains from the border of the Dakotas/Minnesota into central Oklahoma and through the heart of the Lone Star State.

In advance of the cold front lies a dominating ridge that is in control over the eastern U.S. It is strongly responsible for the abnormally warm temperatures that those of us in the East have experienced since late last week and will continue to experience for a few more days.


As the cold front pushes east, slowly, it encounters the abnormally warm and humid air and that is leading to a perfect scenario for t-storm development. Storms have been firing along and near the front from the Dakotas to Texas for much of today and that will continue into Tuesday morning. Some of these storms have been and will continue to be severe with a threat for tornadoes remaining in the southern Plains and into Texas.

The front will progress a bit further east, Tuesday, and will stretch from the birth of the Mississippi River through central Iowa and western Missouri and into east Texas. More storms will be found near the front with storms potentially being severe. The highest risk of severe weather will be from the Arklatex to the Gulf coast, encompassing Houston, TX, Shreveport, LA and Lake Charles, LA.  I anticipate a "Moderate Risk" for this region to be issued in the next day one severe weather outlook from SPC. Again, a threat for tornadoes will be possible.

The upper level energy will actually cut itself off from the main flow over the Southern Plains on Wednesday and that will keep the pattern relatively unchanged with the cold front becoming nearly stationary. That means the same areas that see storminess on Tuesday will likely see more storms Wednesday.  A few severe storms will be possible but the overall amount of severity should be less.

The entire system will have a tough time progressing eastward until about Saturday when it will begin arriving into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At that time, the storminess will finally push east, as well.