Severe Weather Remains Possible Thursday: Ohio/Tennessee Valleys

Just finished looking over the newest model guidance and still believe a threat for severe weather exists for Thursday afternoon through midnight Friday. As mentioned in the last briefing, a strong cold front will be exiting the center of the nation and progress eastward into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley through Thursday. In its advance, warm and somewhat moist air will be found. Behind the front sharply colder with snow to the north.

This combination plus additional atmospheric forcing will set the stage for storm development beginning late afternoon, Thursday. Initially developing across the Bootheel of Missouri and northeast Arkansas and explode further and form a line as they cross over the Mississippi River into Tennessee, Kentucky and Mississippi.

AccuWeather.com

The linear nature of the storms will lead to more of a threat of damaging winds and large hail; however, a few individual supercell storms are possible, initially ahead of the main line. These would be the storms of concern for possible tornadic development.

Overall, the highest threat for severe weather will be from northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee and eastward into Georgia and the Carolinas. The window for arrival in these locations is from about 8 pm in the Tennessee Valley to the early morning hours in the western Carolinas. The severe weather threat will continue through Friday for the Eastern Carolinas southward into Florida.

There is one factor that could reduce the severe weather threat and that will be a bit more of a west-southwesterly surface wind verses a more southerly wind. This would allow more drier air to entrain into the system ad reduce the needed moisture. However, with a low level jet near 60 mph I anticipate enough moisture to be present for storms to occur. Will monitor things closely through the day, Thursday.