Severe Weather Expected for Ohio & Tennessee Valleys, Today (Thursday)

A strengthening storm system in Missouri will be heading east into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. As it does so, it will encounter a warm airmass with temperatures rising up into the mid 60s as far north as the Ohio River and 70s up to the I-40 corridor.  Behind the front, sharply colder with snow, some heavy, expected to progress eastward with the system along the I-80 corridor.

This mix in airmasses plus the dynamics associated with the strengthening storm system equals the potential for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms late this afternoon through the evening hours, today, in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.


Additionally, more moist air will be moving northward and dewpoints will climb back into the mid 50s as far north as the Ohio River and 60 degree dewpoints climbing towards the I-40 corridor. This will provide the needed moisture required for the storms. It will also be quite breezy with winds in the lowest levels of the atmosphere climbing up to near 60 mph later today.

Currently, looking at satellite there are some low clouds across portions of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley but for the most part, abundant sunshine should prevail allow for warming of the surface. The cold front is expected to near the Mississippi River and begin interacting with the warm airmass around 6pm this evening. This will allow for the initiating of storm development near the front. Storms may develop in the Missouri Bootheel into northeast Arkansas but better chances for storm development occurs further east into Western Kentucky and Western Tennessee into Northern Mississippi.

As the evening wears on, the storms should expand in coverage; however, I still expect a relatively thin line overall to form from near the Ohio River southward towards the I-20 corridor. A few of the storms that remain individual and not entrained into an expected squall line will have the potential for becoming tornadic; but, I am not expecting widespread tornadic development. The main concern for the day will be for damaging wind gusts.

Forecast Timing For Key Locations

• Memphis: 6-8 PM

• Paducah: 6-8 PM

• Nashville: 9-11 PM

• Huntsville: 9-11 PM

• Lousiville: 8-10 PM

I will provide updates on Storm Prediction Center thoughts on areas of concern and any watch issuances through Twitter and Facebook to help keep you up-to-date. For warnings I recommend making sure you have a warning notification service similar to WeatherCall and/or NOAA Weather Radio available. (Alabama Residents check out SafTNet)