Weather Briefing

Change Is Still Expected for the Start of the Year

I begin to mention that it looks like a true feel of winter is finally in the works for the first of 2012 as the weather pattern does a shift. Took a look at some new information this morning and my thought of a change coming continues on track. In fact, the American long-range model is now beginning to show signs of allowing a shot of cold that was indicated yesterday by the European. I am going to go over specifics and provide a look at the very latest data later this evening during a live weather briefing, here on this site, at 8:30 pm CT. Please join me!

Winter May Finally Be Coming to the Eastern U.S.

It has been on the mild side for much of November and December along and east of the Mississippi river but some signs of possible change could lead to a burst of cold that may hold for a bit during the first week or January. One of these factors is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscilation) which is forecast to finally go negative. If that holds true it would be the first negative tilt in the NAO since mid October.

NAO Forecast

What this means is that a better opportunity for a trough to develop in the Eastern U.S. ad that would allow for cold to sink out of the Polar region. In fact, the ECMWF (European) model is picking up on this and its possible ramification. Below is an image of its forecast for the morning of Tuesday, January 3, 2012. Notice in the upper left quadrant of the image that a deep trough develops behind a strong upper level piece of energy across the center of the nation.

ECMWF Forecast (obtained from Penn State Ewall)

Additional forecasts for the next several following days show this trough translating east and recharging through January 6. This would bring the season's coldest shot of air into the populated east. It also would likely bring the winter's first widespread snow event.

I will take a closer look at this on Wednesday evenings live weather briefing at 8:30 pm, here at dopplerdale.com

Live Weather Briefing

Will be going live around 8:30 pm CT

Main Action Plains into the Intermountain-West, Could Begin Shifting East Around Christmas

I am watching the weather pattern set up for the next week to two and it looks like most of the action will be in the Intermountain West and Southwest. Currently, a trough is ready to swing into the western U.S. and as it does it will bring widespread rainfall from southern California to New Mexico.

Not seeing a whole lot of cold air with the system so only the high peaks (elevation >5,000') of mountainous areas will see any snow.

By Wednesday, the associated surface system with this trough will begin lifting out of the southwest and into the Plains. This will spread rainfall into the "Heartland" with some snow possible across the northern tier of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Again, not much cold around to be entrained into the system and to allow for snowfall. Also, on Wednesday, a second piece of energy will be diving into northern California.

This second piece of energy looks as if it could be a deeper and stronger system. By the first of the weekend, the system will be cutting off across southern California. By cutting off, it allows the northern branch of the jet stream to bend with a trough over the Mississippi Valley and this will allow for a brief shot of cold to sink southward. The two systems will work in tandem to help draw rains into the Southern Plains and much of Texas with some southern Rockies snow becoming possible.

This will be the system of interest for the week before Christmas and could be am impact towards Christmas itself. I will go into more details on Monday (12/12) in the evening at 8:30 pm during my live weather video briefing. Please join me here for that.

Track Santa Right Here

As I continue to add content that I hope is valuable to you I have now added NORAD's Santa Tracker. While Santa is putting the finishing touches on everything and double checking those lists you can still have fun with children on this site. Right now there are new surprises in the Kids Countdown Village. Here you will find a new holiday game to enjoy until December 24th.

Then on Christmas Eve all the action comes to life. You will be able to watch, with your children, Santa's journey around the world. A real treat for your kids.

Click here or the Santa Tracker tab above and watch the video from last year's journey to get a preview.

Merry Christmas!

Doppler Dale's Weather Daily: December 7, 2011

System that delivered snow that accumulated in the grassy surfaces from Arkansas into northern Mississippi is quickly lifting northeastward and will continue to do so through this evening and tonight. That means the back-edge of the precipitation will lift northeast quickly, too. The change over to snow line won't move much the next few hours generally running southwest to northeast from northeast Alabama along the spine of the Appalachians and up into northern Vermont. This will confine the heaviest snowfall with this system from northern West Virginia through western Pennsylvania and upto into south-central New York and continuing into Vermont (includes Morgantown, Johnstown and Binghamton and Albany)where total snowfall accumulation of 6" to 12" is possible.

I-95 Corridor Snowfall (Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston)
Plenty of rain is occurring east of the heavier snow across the I-95 corridor but this area will also get into a bit of snowfall as the system lifts northeastward and allows a rapid intrusion of cold air to flow in changing rain over to a brief period of snow. Where the snow comes down moderately to heavy for a brief period of time accumulation will be possible. Here are some specifics of when I expect the change over to occur and how much accumulation is possible:

Washington DC: (10PM TO MIDNIGHT, ENDING BY 3 AM, UP TO 1/2")
Baltimore, MD: (10PM TO MDINIGHT, ENDING BY 3 AM, UP TO 1/2")
Philadelphia, PA: (May briefly mix with or change to a brief period of snow, Midnight to 2 AM before ending with NO ACCUMULATION)
New York, NY: (May briefly change over to a period of snow between 3AM to 5AM before ending with NO ACCUMULATION)
Boston, MA: (Brief change over possible between 6 AM and 8 AM with minor accumulation possible, under an inch)

Note: More significant accumulation with a band of 1" to 3" will set up to the west-northwest of these cities by only around 20 to 30 miles and accumulations will continue to rise further north and west one travels.

Plains-MidWest-Ohio Valley Snow Chances
A reinforcing shot of chilly air and some upper level support is helping to produce a band of some light snow across portions of eastern Montana into the Dakotas and this will streak into Nebraska and western Iowa tonight and then into Missouri, Illinois Indiana and Ohio on Thursday. Little if any accumulation is expected; however, the best chances of seeing any accumulation will be along and north of I-80 from Chicago to Cleveland where 1" to 2" could fall in spots.

Longer Range
Looking out into the Day 5 through Day 10 period the pattern will try to shift west a bit with the core of the cold and activity closer to the spine of the Rockies while ridging will try to build in the Southeast and that would allow for some mild conditions from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic while cold and snowy from the Intermountain West through the Rockies.

Video Weather Briefing
I will conduct a video weather briefing to discuss the weather pattern and update on the snow in the East and the quick moving system in the Plains tonight, at 9pm CT. Please join me here to catch it.

Thanks for reading,

"Doppler" Dale

Doppler Dale's Weather Daily: December 6, 2011

Cold air continues to filter into the East and Southeast as a strong cold front continues its eastward progression. Still seeing two pieces of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere with the one in the northern branch of the jet stream producing some light snow through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, including St. Louis. The second wave was beginning to round the bend in southern New Mexico and is poised to head east-northeast through the next few days.

Memphis Snow
As it moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley, Wednesday morning, a new area of light precipitation will begin to break out across the Mid-South. This precipitation will likely begin as drizzle and light rain and then mix with sleet and snow and transition to all snow as cold air continues to filter into the region. The precipitation will begin in the Memphis metro area 10 pm to Midnight and begin mixing with frozen precipitation between 1am and 3am and to all snow by 6 am and ending by 10 am. Minor accumulation of upto 1/2" in grass is possible but just wet pavement is forecast due to pavement temperatures remaining warm.

Nashville, Huntsville Snow
This area of precipitation will continue to track eastward along the I-40 corridor through Tennessee and through northern Mississippi and Alabama towards the metros of Nashville and Huntsville. The upper level energy pieces will actually be merging into one stronger system over Mississippi and Alabama, Wednesday. Add in a bit more deeper moisture and the precipitation should intensify some. Again, the precipitation will likely begin as drizzle and light rain for these areas (around midnight) and transition to a wintry mix towards the morning rush hour and then eventually to all snow by mid morning. Minor, mainly grassy accumulation of up to 1/2" is possible in heavier bursts of snow/sleet, mainly closer to I-40 and along the Cumberland Plateau, but again roads stay warm enough to keep them wet.

Appalachia and I-95 Corridor Snow
The winners with this snow even will be locations along the Appalachians from northeast Georgia to into southern New York. The merged and stronger piece of upper level energy will spin up a strong surface low that will lift up along the Eastern Seaboard. This allows for abundant moisture to be thrown into arriving cold air. 6" to 12" of snow will be possible along the spine of the Appalachians, especially from West Virginia into Northeast Pennsylvania The southern Appalachians from northeast Georgia into West Virginia will be hit tonight and Wednesday with the northern Appalachians being hit Wednesday night into Thursday. I do anticipate the rain to turn over to snow in Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. How much, you ask? Here you go:

Washington DC: 2"-4" (Changes Over 9pm-11pm Wednesday)
Baltimore: 2"-4" (Changes Over 9pm-11pm Wednesday)
Philadelphia: 2"-4" (Changes Over 11pm-1am Wednesday Night)
New York: 1"-3" (Changes Over 1am-3am Thursday)
Boston: 3"-6" (Changes Over 2am-4am Thursday)

Late Work Week Snow
We will watch yet another piece of energy dive southeastward in  the northern branch of the jet through the northern Plains and towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This piece of energy could also bring a band of light snow with it for Thursday into Friday, especially across South Dakota into Nebraska. I will hit on this more tomorrow.

I will also be watching for the potential of a northern branch piece of energy and southern branch piece of energy merging again into a bigger system late next week.

Doppler Dale's Weather Daily: December 5, 2011

The weather pattern over the next week to ten days and likely continuing close towards Christmas will turn colder and more wintry for much of the nation east of the Rockies, especially the Northern Rockies, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes as a general ridge will hold up into Alaska allowing for troughing over central Canada into the central U.S. However, there will be some occasional swings of moderation from time-to-time.

Currently, a two part system is helping to push a strong cold front  eastward out of the center of the nation. The first piece of energy has already brought snow to portions of the southwestern U.S. such as northern Arizona and into New Mexico while the second piece will be diving southeast out of the Norther Plains over the next couple of days. The two will merge into a stronger, single piece of energy over the Lower Mississippi Valley, midweek, prior to lifting northeastward. Following in behind this system will be a piece of northern energy that will help to deepen a developing trough over the center of the nation for the late week and into the weekned.

First, the current front has a tale of seasons associated with it. In its advance, it is windy and quite mild with temperatures likely making it into the 70s in the Tennessee Valley to the 80s in southern Alabama and southern Georgia southward into Florida. Behind it, it feels like December with temperatures only topping out into the 20s and 30s through the Plains and creeping into the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley. The front and overall set up with the slow moving piece of energy out of the southwest is allowing for abundant rainfall to occur from Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The rains will spread east into the Tennessee Valley, New England and Mid-Atlantic this evening and tonight. Snow, though, will be hard to find as most of the precipitation will exit prior to the cold air arriving for most locations. Some rain mixed with snow or brief light snow could occur across portions of the Ohio Valley, mainly northwest Ohio, Tuesday. A few snow showers could also occur across Missouri, Tuesday, as the two above mentioned pieces of energy begin uniting. NO Snow accumulation is expected, however.  Some snow will also be possible Wednesday night into Thursday across the Appalachians from east Tennessee into Pennsylvania as the combined energy lifts northeatward and some minor accumulations are possible. Better chances for some accumulating snow will arrive with the northern stream energy across the Great Lakes and into Ohio Friday into Saturday.