St. Louis Metro Area Forecast (October 31, 2011)

Mother Nature May Play a Trick or Treat  A Few Days Late By Bringing the Region SNOW

A gradual warming trend will continue over the next couple of days but then a BIG change arrives and this could be a REAL BIG change. How about SNOW? Well, snow will be possible relatively close to the St. Louis Metro area. Here are some more thoughts concerning the BIG picture of this storm in an earlier post from today.

The storm system will roll into eastern Missouri Wednesday evening and continue into Illinois trough Wednesday night. As it approaches clouds will increase and it will turn windy. Once it arrives, rain will overspread the region and as it begins to pass temperatures will quickly fall. Just to the north-northwest the rain will be quickly turning over to wet, slushy snow with some accumulation possible. For the metro area it is possible, in fact  becoming more likely, that the rain will mix with and change over to a period of snow early Thursday morning. For now, though, believe accumulations will be just north of the Metro area but this will be monitored closely over the next couple of days.

\

12z Monday NAM Model Snowfall Prediction for Thursday AM

The good news is this is a very QUICK shot of chill as by Friday temperatures will quickly turn warmer, again.

Tuesday
Mostly Sunny
Low:44 High: 71 Wind: S 5-10

Wednesday
Clouds Increasing
Rain Becoming Likely Late (80%)
Becoming Windy
Low: 48 High: 70 Wind: S-NW 15-25 (Gusty)

Thursday
Cloudy with early morning Rain mixing with and possibly changing to Wet Snow
Some Minor Slushy Accumulation Possible
Chance for Precipitation (90%)
Decreasing PM Clouds
Windy and Colder
Low: 37 High: 49 Wind: NW 15-30 (Gusty)

Friday
Sunny
Low: 35 High: 62 Wind: NE-SE 4-8

Saturday
Mostly Cloudy & Breezy
Few Scattered Showers Possible (30%)
Low:43 High: 66 Wind: S-SW 10-20

North Alabama, Southern-Middle Tennessee Forecast (10/31/2011)

Turning gradually warmer for the next few days before yet another powerful storm pulls out of the Rockies and through Plains into the Ohio Valley for the later part of the week. This storm will deliver more snow to Colorado but will also streak it to the east into the Midwest. You can learn more in this post from earlier today.

The storm system will roll into the center of the nation, Wednesday evening/night. It will arrive into the Tennessee Valley around sunrise, Thursday. It will likely rain during the morning hours, Thursday and then clear by evening. Temperatures will likely hold nearly steady or slowly fall through the day, Thursday.

Tuesday
Sunny
Low:37 High: 69 Wind: E Light

Wednesday
Sunny, Breezy and Warm
Low:40 High: 70 Wind: SE-S 10-15

Thursday
Cloudy with Rain Likely (90%) through the Morning Hours
Decreasing Clouds in the Afternoon Hours.
Windy and Turning Colder with Potential Falling Temperatures.
Low:50 High: 56 Wind: W-NW 15-20

Friday
Some AM Clouds
Sunny PM
Low:38 High: 65 Wind: N-NE 5

Saturday
Mostly Sunny & Breezy
Low:40 High: 71 Wind: SE 10-15

Kentucky Lake Region Forecast (October 31, 2011)

A gradual warming trend for the next couple of days but then another BIG change with SNOW not too far off to our north and northeast. Details on the snow potential with this upcoming storm can be read here.  The storm will come rolling into the Quad States late on Wednesday. As it begins to near, clouds will begin to increase and it will turn windy. The system will pass Wednesday night and rainfall will become likely and it will turn sharply colder, again.

Windy and chilly conditions with scattered showers are expected for Thursday. Due to the forecast wind on Wednesday and Thursday it is not advised to be on the area lakes either Wednesday or Thursday and I expect Lake Wind Advisories or Warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service over the next 24 to 36 hours.

This will be a quick hit of chill as warmer air flows back into the region within a day or so.


Tuesday
Mostly Sunny
Low:34 High: 70 Wind: S 5-10

Wednesday
Gradual Increase in Clouds
Becoming Breezy
Rain Arriving Late Evening (40%)
Low:40 High: 73 Wind: S-SW 15-25 (Gusty)

Thursday
Early Morning Rain Likely (90%)
Scattered Showers Possible into the Afternoon (40%)
Windy with Nearly Steady Temperatures
Low: 40 High: 48 Wind: W-NW 20-30 (Gusty)

Friday
Sunny
Low:38 High: 62 Wind: NE-SE 5

Saturday
Clouds Increasing & Breezy
Low:43 High: 70 Wind: S 10-15

Here We Go Again, More Colorado Snow But the Midwest, Too?

Two pieces of  upper level energy, one currently approaching the Pacific NW coast and another in northern British Columbia, Canada, will come together as one strong system over Colorado, Tuesday evening/night. At the same time a powerful cold front will be drifting southward along the front range of the Rockies allowing cold air to follow. The upper level support plus the frontal boundary will allow for a surface low to develop over southeastern Colorado and move into the Panhandles of Texas. This combined with the approaching area of high pressure over the Northern Rockies and the set up returns for widespread upsloping snow from southern Wyoming into Colorado, especially the I-25 corridor. The snow will begin to fly across Wyoming on Tuesday and spread southward into Tuesday evening and through the overnight hours. Pockets of heavy snow are likely.

Additionally, this system has the potential for snow to spread further eastward into the Plains than the storm system a week earlier. Snow is likely to spread into the Blackhills of South Dakota on Tuesday and spread southeastward into Nebraska through Tuesday night and through Wednesday. Heavy snow will be possible.

Snow is even becoming more likely into Iowa through the day, Wednesday and could make it as far east as northern Missouri and Illinois.along and north of I-72, Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  Snow showers may even be able to continue into eastern Ohio and Kentucky by Thursday evening.

So how much snow can be expected? Here is a first look forecast through Thursday evening:

And a closer, more detailed look for eastern Colorado:

So now is a great time to be ready to remove that snow as it looks like winter wants to hit early this season. Thanks to a blogger friend of mine, The Coupon Centsation, for alerting me to this deal on a coupon to save on Morton Ice Melt. Make sure to get yours before they are gone and have your ice melt on hand and ready for any snow or ice that heads your way.

North Alabama/Southern Tennessee Forecast (October 30, 2011)

A fast moving upper level wave will pass through the Tennessee Valley Monday morning. As it does a few clouds will be possible but overall a sun filled and dry Halloween is expected. For all of those Trick-or-Treaters, here is what you can expect during the evening hours:



By midweek, another powerful storm system will be impacting the central Rockies and eying moving to the east with briefly colder air to follow. In its advance a couple of warmer days with temperatures rising into the upper 60s and low 70s are likely in the Tennessee Valley.

Monday
Mostly Sunny
Low:35 High: 64 Wind: S-NW 4-7

Tuesday
Mostly Sunny
Low:37 High: 68 Wind: E Light

Wednesday
Sunny, Breezy and Warm
Low:40 High: 69 Wind: SE 10-15

Thursday
Becoming Cloudy with Rain Becoming Likely (80%)
Turning Colder with Potential Falling Temperatures.
Low:50 High: 60 Wind: SW-NW 10-15

Friday
Some AM Clouds
Sunny PM
Low:44 High: 65 Wind: N-NE 5

St. Louis Metro Area Forecast (October 30, 2011)

A fast paced upper level wave has brought clouds and spotty light rain to the Metro area this Sunday but it will exit to the east overnight and we will be left with a very nice Halloween. For those Trick-or-Treaters here is your forecast for Monday evening:



Midweek, another powerful storm system will be spinning up. It will affect the central Rockies with more snow on Tuesday and deliver more rain and colder conditions to the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday.

Monday
Sunny
Low: 42 High: 61 Wind: WNW 5-10

Tuesday
Mostly Sunny
Low:44 High: 71 Wind: S-SW 5-10

Wednesday
Clouds Increasing
Rain Becoming Possible Late (40%)
Becoming Windy
Low: 48 High: 70 Wind: S-SW 10-20

Thursday
Cloudy with Rain Likely (90%)
Colder, Nearly Steady Temperatures
Low: 44 High: 49 Wind: NE-N 10-20

Friday
Some AM Clouds
Sunny PM
Low:40 High: 62 Wind: NE-E 5

Kentucky Lake Region Forecast (October 30, 2011)

A fast paced storm system will be passing through the Quad States, Monday. It will deliver some morning cloudiness that will dissipate through the afternoon hours and by the time the Trick-or-Treaters head out the door it should be clear. Here is a detailed look for Halloween Evening:



Another midweek powerful storm system will be spinning up over the central Rockies and it will move into the Quad States region on Thursday delivering rainfall and colder temperatures, once again.


Monday
Decreasing Clouds
Low: 40 High: 63 Wind: W 5-10

Tuesday
Mostly Sunny
Low:36 High: 68 Wind: S-SW 5-10

Wednesday
Gradual Increase in Clouds
Becoming Breezy
Low:40 High: 70 Wind: S 5-15

Thursday
Rain Likely (90%)
Nearly Steady Temperatures
Low: 48 High: 52 Wind: SW-W 10-20

Friday
Some AM Clouds
Sunny PM
Low:44 High: 62 Wind: NE 5

October Snow for the I-95 Corridor: DC to Philly to NYC

A powerful, multi-part storm system is bringing a real change in the season. On Wednesday, it delivered the first snow of the season to Colorado. Here were some of the snowfall totals:

Castle Pines (Douglas County): 5.3”
Ft. Collins (Larimer County): 6.0”
Loveland (Larimer County): 6.5”
Breckenridge (Summit County): 7.1”
Wheat Ridge (Jefferson County): 7.6”
Aurora (Arapahoe County): 8.0”
Denver (Denver County): 8.5”
Boulder (Boulder County): 10.5”
Evergreen (Jefferson County): 12.8”
Copper Mountain (Summit County): 18.0”
Jamestown (Boulder County): 19.8”

Now, how about snow in October in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles? Well, that is what has happened, today. Here are some of the snowfall totals as of 2PM CT (THU):

Boise City (Cimarron County, OK): 1.0”
Guymon (Texas County, OK): 1.0”
Panhandle (Carson County, TX): 2.8”
Wildorado (Deaf Smith County, TX): 3.0”
Amarillo (Potter County, TX): 4.5”

It is also snowing today in portions of New England from northwest Pennsylvania through the heart of New York state and into New Hampshire. Now the snow is ready to impact further south into the central Appalachians and possibly even the I-95 corridor from Washington DC to New York City.

Even while the majority of the modeling data have been leaning away from the potential for snow in the Mid-Atlantic and into New England, Saturday, as a result of a secondary low pressure system moving norhteastward out of the Southeast and up along the Atlantic Coast, I have been choosing to follow the ECMWF (European) for several days because of the confidence I have gained in this model over the past 15 years and because it has simply made sense and looked correct. Now, guess what is beginning to be shown by the remainder of the models, the potential for snow from DC to NYC.  

As the piece of energy ejects out of the southern Plains, the one that brought the snow to Colorado and the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, it will merge with a secondary piece of energy dipping southeastward out of the Upper Midwest. These two pieces of energy will form one storm over the Southeast, on Friday, and it will lift northeast along the eastern U.S. Coast. The current track thought would take it near the Delmarva, Saturday morning, to the Canadian Maritimes, Sunday morning. This track would produce a band of accumulating snow, Friday night through Saturday night, from northeast Tennessee into New England. The heaviest snowfall, 3” to 7”, will fall across the spine of the Appalachians in Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania and into the Adirondacks of New York.  The southeastern edge of the accumulating snow will edge near the I-95 corridor from Washington DC to New York City. Further northeast towards Boston the chances of seeing snow increase further.  I believe we will see some slushy snow into Philadelphia and New York City and rain will likely mix with and may briefly change over to snow in DC.

Another fast-paced storm system will roll through the center of the nation and off the East Coast early next week. This system will develop a low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and take it across Florida and into the Atlantic bringing rains to the sunshine state and clouds with a few showers for the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

Next week’s headliner wll be yet another powerful storm system that could once again bring accumulating snow to eastern Colorado, Tuesday/Wednesday and then spread colder air back into the eastern half of the U.S. for the latter part of next week.

St. Louis Metro Area Forecast (October 27, 2011)

Another fast moving piece of energy will slide through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Friday. Before it does, it will be clear and cold, tonight. Lots of sunshine to start off Friday but clouds will increase during the afternoon and evening hours.

Another fast paced storm system moves into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Sunday. Rain showers will remain north of the St. Louis Metro area but clouds will be abundant. This could keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler, in the afternoon, compared to the current forecast.

Yet another BIG storm system will move into the region around the 2nd of November. Ahead of it for a couple of days it will turn warmer with highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s but then another marked change to colder behind it.


Friday
Sunny and Frosty to Start
Clouds Increasing in the PM
Low: 38 High: 57  Wind: NW-SW 5-10

Saturday
Sunny
Low: 36 High: 60 Wind: WSW 5-10

Sunday
Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
Low: 40 High: 61 Wind: SW-NW 10-20

Monday
Mostly Sunny
Low: 40 High: 59 Wind: NW-SW 5-10

Tuesday
Mostly Cloudy
Low:42 High: 69 Wind: S-SW 5-15

Wednesday
Cloudy with Rain Developing (70%)
Becoming Windy
Low: 50 High: 68 Wind: SW-NW 10-20

Thursday
Cloudy with AM Rain
Then decreasing cloudiness
Low: 44 High: 52 Wind: NW-N 10-15

North Alabama, Southern-Middle Tennessee Forecast (10/27/2011)

Now that the front is through the Tennessee Valley it will continue to turn colder. A new piece of upper level energy will be diving southeast and merge with an older piece of energy that has brought snow to Colorado and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. The newly formed system will help to bring waves of rain and showers to the Tennessee Valley on Friday. 

For the remainder of the weekend, the weather will be quite nice with abundant sunshine. Frost is likely both Saturday and Sunday morning with some locations dipping below freezing, especially, Sunday morning.

Yet another BIG storm system will move into the region around the 4th of November. Ahead of it for a couple of days it will turn warmer with highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s but then another marked change to colder behind it.

Friday
Cloudy, Windy and Colder
Occasional Showers
Rain Chance (80%)
Low: 48 High: 54  Wind: N 10

Saturday
Mostly Sunny
Low: 35 High: 59 Wind: NE 5-15

Sunday
Sunny
Late Day Increase in Cloud Cover
Low: 33 High: 65 Wind: S 5

Monday
Mostly Cloudy
Isolated Showers (20%)
Low:44 High: 62 Wind: N 5

Tuesday
Mostly Sunny
Low:42 High: 68 Wind: NE-SE Light

Wednesday
Mostly Sunny and Warm
Low:40 High: 72 Wind: SE-S 5

Thursday
Increasing Cloudiness
PM Showers and T-Storms Developing (60%)
Low:50 High: 68 Wind: SW-NW 10-15

Kentucky Lake Region Forecast (October 27, 2011)

A nice end to the week with cool fall temperatures. Widespread frost is likely Saturday morning with some locations dipping down to freezing.  

A quick moving front will pass through the region on Sunday providing for an increase in cloudiness and breezy conditions. The clouds will then decrease on Monday.

Yet another BIG storm system will move into the region around the 3rd of November. Ahead of it for a couple of days it will turn warmer with highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s but then another marked change to colder behind it.


Friday
Mostly Sunny
Low: 43 High: 56 Wind: NE-N 5-10

Saturday
Sunny
Low: 34 High: 59 Wind: NW-SW 5

Sunday
Increasing Cloudiness, Breezy
Low: 35 High: 63 Wind: SSW  10-15

Monday
Decreasing Clouds
Low: 44 High: 60 Wind: NW-W 5

Tuesday
Mostly Sunny
Low:39 High: 68 Wind: S-SW 5

Wednesday
Increasing Clouds
Becoming Breezy
Low:43 High: 70 Wind: SW 5-15

Thursday
Rain Likely (80%)
Turning Colder
Low: 48 High: 52 Wind: NW-N 10-15

St. Louis Metro Area Forecast (October 26, 2011)

Front came through right on schedule and temperatures have fallen off as expected through the day. The one thing that hasn’t transpired is the wide swath of post frontal precipitation development. A few scattered showers have occurred and more are likely to develop through the afternoon, especially south of I-44 in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois. This is good news with regards to the World Series Game 6 potential for tonight. There may be a rain delayed start or a few brief showers may impact the game but I anticipate the game being able to be played. It will be chilly and similar to Game 1 and that may be some additional good news for the Cardinals as we know the outcome of Game 1. 

Clouds and possibly a rouge shower will be present, Thursday morning, but by evening clear sky conditions are expected and that continues into Friday and Saturday. Another piece of energy and associated cold front will slide out of the Upper Midwest and through the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Not much in the way of additional cooling is expected behind the front but the front will increase cloud cover and the winds, once again.

Thursday
Cloudy start
Clouds Decrease through the Afternoon
Low: 45 High: 58 Wind: N 10

Friday
Sunny
Low: 38 High: 59  Wind: W 5-10

Saturday
Sunny
Low: 36 High: 62 Wind: SW 5

Sunday
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 40 High: 61 Wind: SW-NW 5-15

Monday
Partly Cloudy
Low: 45 High: 59 Wind: SE-E 5

Tuesday
Decreasing Cloudiness
Low:46 High: 64 Wind: NE-N 5
Wednesday
Sunny
Low:43High: 68 Wind: WSW 5