Emily Likely to Be Born on Monday

Could Become Season's First Hurricane

Acting like the Heartland, the tropics are heating up as Emily is on her way on the scene. A large area of disturbed weather associated with an organizing tropical wave about 500 miles east of the Leewards, is forecast to continue its trend of strengthening and organizing and will likely be named as a tropical storm by midday Monday.  

The consensus of the modeling data also indicates that Emily may very likely become the season’s first Hurricane in the Atlantic and this could happen as early as Monday evening.In fact, two of the models, GHMI and GFDL, are both forecasting the wave to strengthen to Major category status, winds in excess of 111 mph (96 kts)

The big factor on just how strong this system will get over the next several days will be the track the potential storm takes. I am in disagreement with the consensus of the modeling data which tracks the wave to the WNW through time eventually tracking the wave over Puerto Rico and then into the Bahamas through the next 5 days. The reason the modeling data is doing this is that they allow a large ridge of high pressure, currently over the central Atlantic, to take influence and set up a flow more from the southeast-northwest across the potential track of the storm. However, looking at current upper air data and wind flow and forecast projections I believe the wind flow will remain more easterly and this would help take the future Emily to the west more than northwest and that could take her over Hispaniola and Cuba and that could weaken her before she would redevelop over the Gulf of Mexico. Only one model, currently, is in my court of thinking, the Navy NOGAPS, as well as the overall persistence of the wave. Overall, the track will become better handled by modeling data over the next couple of days and at which time a better forecast will be made.

Tennessee Valley Day-By-Day Forecast

Tonight
Humugidy
Patchy Fog
Low:  74 Wind: NE Light

Monday
Mostly Sunny, Hot and a bit Less Humid
Low: 74 High: 97 Wind: NE 5-10 (Heat Index 100-105)

Tuesday
Sunny and Hot
At Least the Humidity Will be Down
Low: 72 High: 98 Wind NE-SW Light (Heat Index Near 100)

Wednesday
Very Hot, Humidity Begins Creeping Upward
An Isolated Late Day T-Storm (10%)
Low: 74 High: 100 Wind SW-W 5-10 (Heat Index 104-110)

Thursday
Partly Cloudy, Hot and  Humid
Isolated Storms Possible (20%)
Low: 77 High: 97 Wind NW 5 (Heat Index 105-110)

Friday
Variably Cloudy, Hot and Humid
Storm Coverage Increases (30%)
Low: 77 High: 95 Wind NW 5 (Heat Index 105-110)

Saturday
Mostly Cloudy
Scattered T-Storms (30%)
Low: 74 High: 93 Wind NW-N 5-10

Sunday
Partly Cloudy
Less Humid
Low: 71 High: 95 Wind N-NE 5-10

Monday
Mostly Sunny and Hot
Low: 72 High: 98 Wind NE 5

Tuesday
Variably Cloudy
Scattered T-Storms (30%)
Low: 76 High: 97 Wind SW-NW 5-10



Thanks for reading,

“Doppler” Dale

Tropical Storm Don is Holding His Own

And Storms Expected to be About in the Tennessee Valley this Weekend

Tropical Storm Don has encountered some wind shear today and also has bumped into some drier air to its west. This has helped to keep Don from intensifying and currently maintains maximum winds of 45 mph. However, recent satellite data in the last few hours does show some lessening impacts of the wind shear and some pulsating upward of convection near the center of circulation. This could indicate some strengthening is trying to occur. 

Still, the drier air to the west to hinder quick strengthening and Don is expected to remain a tropical storm through its life cycle and until it makes landfall, likely late Friday evening/early Saturday morning, near Corpus Christi, Texas. 

We will have a better handle on whether or not Don is trying to strengthen this evening as there are two NHC hurricane hunters en-route to investigate further.

For those of us in the Tennessee Valley, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has been streaming northward through much of Alabama and Mississippi,this afternoon. It has aided in the development of widely scattered tropical downpours and a few thunderstorms for locations west of I-65 and south of I-20. Further north, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted and most of that activity was from Marion and Winston counties southward.

The moisture will continue to filter northward into northern Alabama and southern Tennessee on Friday and into the weekend. This combined with a weak disturbance settling into the region will allow for widely scattered downpours and thunderstorms to be expected both Friday and Saturday. Coverage of rainfall will be a bit less on Sunday as the boundary settles a bit further south and suppresses the majority of the moisture and lift focus further south.

If you are planning on attending the Rocket City Beach Bash, this weekend, in downtown Huntsville you can expect a 40% chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Saturday. This has caused me to lower expected afternoon high temperatures to 91; however, dewpoints will be up and that will lead to 100 to 105 degree heat index values. On Sunday, the thunderstorm chance lowers to 30% and the afternoon temperature will edge upward to 94. For both days, the UV Index will be around a 10 so make sure you take along your sunscreen and lather up, too.

For next week, I still expect a period of 3 to 5 days of intense heat to settle back into the Valley. Temperatures will already climb back into the mid and upper 90s on Monday and to near 100 by Tuesday. Temperatures will top out near 100 then for several days before some cooling relief back into the lower 90s are expected late next week.

Tennessee Valley Day-By-Day Forecast

This Eve
Isolated T-Storms
Southwest
Temps:  90s Wind: SSW 5-15

Tonight
Humugidy
Low:  73 Wind: Nearly Calm

Friday
Mostly Cloudy with High Humidity
Widely Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms and Tropical Downpours (40%)
Low: 74 High: 91 Wind SW-W 5 (Heat Index Up to 100)

Saturday
Mostly Cloudy and Humid
Widely Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms and Tropical Downpours (40%)
Low: 73 High: 91 Wind: NW 5-10 (Heat Index Around 100)

Sunday
Partly Cloudy & Humid
Scattered T-Storms (30%)
Low: 73 High: 94 Wind: NNW 5-10 (Heat Index 100-105)

Monday
Mostly Sunny & Slightly Less Humid
An Isolated T-Storm Possible (15%)
Low: 73 High: 97 Wind: NE 5-10 (Heat Index 102-107)

Tuesday
Sunny and Hot
Low: 73 High: 98 Wind NE-E Light (Heat Index 102-107)

Wednesday
Few Clouds and Staying Hot
Low: 75 High: 99 Wind SSW 5 (Heat Index 104-110)

Thursday
Partly Cloudy, Hot and  Humid
Isolated Storms Possible (20%)
Low: 77 High: 99 Wind SW 5 (Heat Index 105-110)

Friday
Variably Cloudy, Hot and Humid
Storm Coverage Increases (30%)
Low: 77 High: 97 Wind W-NW 5

Saturday
Widely Scattered T-Storms (40%)
Low: 74 High: 93 Wind W-NW 5


Thanks for reading,

“Doppler” Dale

Tropical Storm Don Is Born

Southeast Texas Likely Landing Spot

As of this writing shortly before 4pm CT, Wednesday, it appears that we have tropical storm “Don” in the Gulf of Mexico north of the tip of the Yucatan. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter has been investigating the area for the past few hours and have several reports of estimated surface winds of 40 to 45 mph, tropical storm force. The satellite imagery would also support these findings. I would anticipate official advisories to begin being issued by NHC this evening on this system.

Now the question of where will it go? A strong upper level high that has been stubborn to move much for the past month stretches from the western Atlantic back into the Plains and this is providing an east-southeast wind flow across the Gulf of Mexico. The area of high pressure will shift a bit to the west-northwest over the next few days and this should help provide more of a southeast flow that would direct the tropical system towards the southeast Texas coast. This is being handled well and is the consensus forecast of the modeling data, too.

The positive to this is drought plagued Texas will get much welcomed rain and hopefully not too much wind to go along with it.

For much of the remainder of the country from the Plains to the Midwest and into the Southeast, the ridge of high pressure is going to provide for more hot times. In fact, as we head into next week, the core of the heat will nose through the Mid-South and into the Tennessee Valleys for several days and that means temperatures near 100

P.S.
As I finish typing we officially do have Tropical Storm Don with winds of 40 mph and a movement to the west-northwest at 12 mph. Full details available from the NHC.

Tennessee Valley Day-By-Day Forecast

This Eve
Very Hot
& Very Bright
Temps:  90s Wind: Light North

Tonight
Mainly Clear
Few Fog Pockets
Low:  73 Wind: Nearly Calm

Thursday
Partly Cloudy, Hot and Humid
Few PM Storms Possible Near MS state Line (15%)
Low: 73 High: 95 Wind S-SW  5 (Heat Index 104-110)

Friday
Variably Cloudy with High Humidity
Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms and Tropical Downpours (30%)
Low: 74 High: 93 Wind SW-W 5 (Heat Index 100-105)

Saturday
Hot and Humid
Isolated PM T-Storms Possible (15%)
Low: 75 High: 96 Wind: NW 5-10 (Heat Index 102-107)

Sunday
Partly Cloudy & Humid
Scattered T-Storms (30%)
Low: 75 High: 94 Wind: NW 5 (Heat Index 100-108)

Monday
Mostly Sunny & Less Humid
Low: 73 High: 97 Wind: NE 5-10 (Heat Index 100-103)

Tuesday
Sunny and Hot
Low: 73 High: 98 Wind NE Light (Heat Index Near 100)

Wednesday
Few Clouds and Staying Hot
Low: 75 High: 99 Wind Light (Heat Index 100-105)

Thursday
Partly, Hot and  more Humid
Isolated Storms Possible (15%)
Low: 77 High: 99 Wind SW-W 5

Friday
Variably Cloudy, Hot and Humid
Storm Coverage Increases (30%)
Low: 77 High: 97 Wind W-NW 5


Thanks for reading,

“Doppler” Dale

"Don" Could Be Born within the Next 48 hours

First Recon to Occur Thursday

The tropical wave I have been watching for nearly a week now appears it is ready to try to become “Don” as earlier expected, it has just taken a bit longer. The wave is looking relatively healthy and is centered south of the west tip of Cuba and tracking west. Computer forecasts have been trending WNW with the system over time and keeps its center north of the Yucatan allowing it the chance to develop further. I anticipate we will have “Don” by Thursday morning; however, a Air Force Hurricane Hunter will be examining the wave on Wednesday afternoon and that will help provide more information on how the system is organizing and if they find better organization than appears on radar and satellite “Don” may be born a bit earlier.

It does appear, with the upper high centered over the southeastern U.S., late this week, that the system will likely aim for the U.S./Mexican border of south Texas for Saturday. The modeling data tends to agree with the consensus taking the system similarly.

Tennessee Valley Day-By-Day Forecast

This Eve
Clouds Dissipating
Stays Warm
Temps:  90s/80s Wind: Light North

Tonight
Mainly Clear
Few Fog Pockets
Low:  73 Wind: Nearly Calm

Wednesday
Mostly Sunny & Hot
Slightly Less Humidity
Low: 73 High: 96 Wind NE-E 5 (Heat Index 100-105)

Thursday
Partly Cloudy, Hot and Humid
Few PM Storms Possible Near MS state Line (20%)
Low: 76 High: 95 Wind S-SW  5 (Heat Index 102-110)

Friday
Variably Cloudy with High Humidity
Widely Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms and Tropical Downpours (40%)
Low: 74 High: 91 Wind SW 5 (Heat Index Near 100)

Saturday
Hot and Humid
Isolated PM T-Storms Possible (20%)
Low: 75 High: 96 Wind: WNW 5 (Heat Index 105-110)

Sunday
Partly Cloudy & Humid
Scattered T-Storms (30%)
Low: 75 High: 94 Wind: NW 5 (Heat Index 103-108)

Monday
Mostly Sunny & Less Humid
Low: 73 High: 94 Wind: NE 5

Tuesday
Mostly Sunny and Hot
Low: 73 High: 97 Wind NE Light

Wednesday
Few Clouds, Hot and Humid
Low: 75 High: 99 Wind SE-S 5

Thursday
Partly, Hot and Humid
Low: 77 High: 99 Wind S 5


Thanks for reading,

“Doppler” Dale

Southeast Heat and Humidity This Week

Little Chance of Any New Tropical Development 

Very little new to say this afternoon. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean sea is producing quite a bit of shower and t-storm activity across the eastern half of Cuba and across Jamaica. 

The wave still appears disorganized but the main area of low pressure appears to be over the water; however, it continues to interact with the Cuban and Jamaican land mass. 

This will likely keep the system disorganized for the next few days and by the time it begins to get away from Cuban and Jamaican influences it will become influenced by the Yucatan. If the system can hold together after crossing the Yucatan, midweek, it is possible than some development may occur over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, briefly, late week.

For the Southeast, it is going to turn hotter through midweek. It will become a bit more challenging, forecast wise, for the Tennessee Valley by late week as tropical moisture begins returning to the Valley after a few days of disappearing. By Thursday, we will see some of this tropical moisture in the form of showers and downpours streaking northward through Mississippi and possibly clipping into northwest Alabama.

By Friday, the moisture will drive to move further east towards the I-65 corridor. On Saturday, another impulse of energy will pass through the region and will likely interact with the tropical moisture in place to produce showers and t-storms across a large part of the Valley.

Tennessee Valley Day-By-Day Forecast

This Eve
Tropical Downpours
Few T-Storms
Low:  70s/80s  Wind: NW 5

Tonight
Dense Fog Developing
After Midnight
Low:  72 Wind: nearly Calm

Tuesday
Morning Fog
Becoming Mostly Sunny and Steamy
Isolated Storm Possible (15%), Mainly South
Low: 72 High: 94 Wind: N 5-10 (Heat Index 100-105)

Wednesday
Mostly Sunny & Hot
A Bit Less Humidity
Low: 73 High: 96 Wind NE 5 (Heat Index 100-105)

Thursday
Partly Cloudy, & Hot
Increasing Humidity West with a Few PM Storms Possible Near MS state Line (20%)
Low: 74 High: 95 Wind SE 5 (Heat Index 100-105)

Friday
Variably Cloudy with Humidity Increasing
Some Scattered Storms, Mainly West of I-65 (20%)
Low: 74 High: 93 Wind SSW 5 (Heat Index Near 100)

Saturday
Hot and Humid
Widely Scattered PM T-Storms Possible (40%)
Low: 75 High: 96 Wind: SW 5 (Heat Index 103-108)

Sunday
Partly Cloudy
Isolated T-Storms (20%)
Low: 75 High: 94 Wind: NW 5-10 (Heat Index 100-105)

Monday
Mostly Sunny & Less Humid
Low: 73 High: 92 Wind: N 5

Tuesday
Partly Cloudy
Low: 73 High: 92 Wind NE 5

Wednesday
Partly Cloudy, Hot and Humid
Low: 73 High: 96 Wind SE-S 5



Thanks for reading,

“Doppler” Dale