Regarding significant icing (freezing rain of 0.5” or more), it appears the worst will occur in two separate bands. The first is now ongoing in the St. Louis metro area where 0.5” to 0.75” of ice is likely to fall from St. Louis County east between the I-70 and I-64 corridor. A second band with 0.5” to 1.5” of ice will fall from Fayetteville, AR-Cape Girardeau, MO-Bloomington, IN-Akron, OH-Hagerstown, MD-Newark, NJ.
How about severe weather now? Temperatures this afternoon in advance of the low have spiked into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees in Texas and a few severe storms are possible as a result. The better chance for severe weather will arrive on Tuesday across Louisiana-Mississippi and southern Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a “Slight” Risk to cover this potential.
The Tennessee Valley will generally be in between all of the major action with the ice and snow well to our north and the severe weather staying off to our west and south. That doesn’t mean it won’t be becoming wet, though. It appears we have a good chance for seeing 1” or more of rainfall Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning.
OK, done with storm number 1. That is right, that means there is a second storm! As the first storm pulls away a piece of upper level energy will be left behind over the Four Corners and this will wait a few days before ejecting out to the east late week. But before it does, it will work in tandem with the arctic high building southward into Texas and snow, 2” to 4” is likely to fall as far south as El Paso, Texas, with the areas mountains picking up more than 1 foot of snow. The upper level piece of energy will aid in spinning up a surface low well in its advance over the Gulf of Mexico, yet again. Boy have we seen a bunch of these this year!. This will begin to occur on Thursday and the result will be for more Gulf moisture being sent northward. Significant rains will be likely along the Gulf Coast but the BIG question will be where exactly will this low track and how much cold, arctic air will be in place across the southern U.S. It is possible, some snow could fall along the north-northwest edge of this area of precipitation from the Houston Metro area into the Tennessee Valley on Friday. This will be something to monitor over the next couple of days. As of now, for those in the Tennessee Valley, I am leaning with the thought that we could see a wintry mix try to set up Friday and try to go over to rain before possibly ending as some snow on Saturday.
If this is not enough weather to get you excited about, then just wait, more is likely on the way for next week. The long range models are all hinting at yet another strong arctic high settling south through the Plains, early next week, as it does another repeat performance of another center of the nation winter storm could be in the making. I talk more about that in the coming days.
Tennessee Valley Day-to-Day Forecast
Cloudy with a few isolated showers possible (20%) until late afternoon then rain becomes likely (100%). A Line of strong to severe storms possible in the evening (6 to 9 pm). Windy.
Low: 53 High: 60 (Wind SE-SW 15-25)
Early morning rain/storms (60%) then decreasing clouds and turning much colder and windy.
Low: 30 High: 38 (Wind: NW 10-20)
Sunny start with clouds increasing in the afternoon and evening.
Low: 22 High: 39
Cloudy with sleet/freezing rain or rain possible (60%) (GFS and Canadian about 0 at 850 all thru event and looks more like a sleet event if right but a big IF. GFS mos much warmer than operational model would suggest)
Low: 28 High: 38
Cloudy with a chance snow showers (40%)
Low: 30 High: 40
Low: 26 High: 50
Rain Likely (60%)
Low: 36 High: 56
Rain Ending, Windy and Colder
Low: 33 High: 40
Partly Cloudy and Cold
Low: 18 High: 35
Thanks for reading,