U.S. Winter 2011-2012 Outlook: Part 1

Another Cold and Snowy Winter South of the Mason Dixon Line; 
Dry and Warmer for Drought Stricken Texas


This is part one of the Doppler Dale Winter Weather Outlook. This post will provide the general winter forecast expected with a more detailed post providing some specifics for several U.S. locations being provided later in the week.

For those who know me personally and have spoken to me over the past several years or have read my previous winter outlook discussions you are aware of my believe that we have seen the beginning of a climatic shift towards a colder regime in the winters. I also have explained I how believe this process will continue for another 10 to 15 years and many of the upcoming winters will comparable to the 1950s and 1970s.

Two major factors will be at work once again this winter in controlling the general weather pattern across the continental U.S.: La Nina and a Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Now typically, during La Nina winters the temperatures are colder than normal across the Pacific Northwest and warmer than normal in the Southeast; however, last winter was a La Nina and one than occurred during a negative PDO. This causes the La Nina affect to be different.  My believe is that this winter will be similar to that of last (2010-2011) and allow for colder than normal conditions in the Southeast with the coldest air, relative to normal, occurring over the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

Winter 2010/2011 Temperatures vs. Normal

To assist in getting some of the cold intrusions into the eastern U.S. and the Southeast,  the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will several times swing negatively.

For many, especially those in Texas and the southern tier of the U.S., this has been a year of drought and forest fires and unfortunately this winter will not help conditions. It will be another dry winter from Arizona to the Carolinas with the most severe dryness occurring again over Texas and portions of the Gulf Coast. Wetter than normal conditions will impact the far northern tips of the U.S. in the Pacific Northwest and in Maine.

While it may be drier than normal this winter for many, that doesn't always translate to reduced snowfall, as has been the scenario that past couple of winters. Snowfall will be back above normal for many who have not in recent decades been used to seeing it, the South.