Temperature Forecasts Versus Normal
I have promised several individual parts to the Winter 2011-12 forecast with each providing a bit more detail. In part 1 I provided a general overview for the upcoming winter and with this post I will expand on the temperature forecast.
In this year's winter forecast I reviewed several similar winter seasons over the past 60 years and have compared them to current and forecast conditions. This has lead to the data I have utilized to input into my forecast equations resulting in the ending forecast numbers. The winter seasons specifically used were: 2010-11, 2007-08, 1988-89, 1984-84, 1975-76, 1970-71, 1964-65, 1962-63, 1954-55 and 1950-51. The heaviest weighted seasons were 2010-11, 1975-76, 1970-71, 1954-55 and 1950-51 accounting for over 80% of the weighted value in the forecast.
Here are the forecast winter season (November through February) temperatures compared to normal for several locations in the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.
For more details on the temperature forecasts I will included a few cities breakdown on monthly temperature forecasts versus normal so you can see when the coldest and warmest parts of the winter season are anticipated for key regions of the country in part 3 of the winter forecast.
Thanks for reading,