Becoming Better Organized
Just a quick update on Tropical Storm Emily. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is currently investigating Emily and has found a minimal pressure of only 1007 mb and the center of circulation is quite broad and elongated. The wind field is also relatively light with only a few reports of minimal tropical storm force on the east and northeast side of the storm. I anticipate gradual organization today and some strengthening as it traverses open waters south of Puerto Rico.
Now, briefly, where will she go? I am staying with my thoughts from the past two days, nothing new to make me change, and that is for Emily to continue a west motion through the next 24 to 48 hours before turning towards the northwest. This would take Emily towards Jamaica and then western Cuba before entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I believe interests in western Florida to the Mississippi Gulf coast should be monitorring this storm closely for this weekend. This is much further west than the current NHC track and is close to the west edge of their potential track possibility.
Interesting note is that several models are beginning to lean in this direction including the Canadian, European and Navy NOGAPS.