Morning Emily Update

AF Hurricane Hunters have been flying through and around Emily this morning and has found a minimum pressure of 1006 mb with the center located about 100 miles SSE of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Currently, she is nearly stationary but she has shifted westward through the overnight and has still not shown a turn more to the northwest. She continues to be rather disorganized, even though she has strong convective build up on the eastern side of the circulation. She continues to encounter wind shear and that is prohibiting her to strengthen and organize better.

The latest suite of hurricane models continue to try to turn Emily to fast to the northwest, in my oppinion. They are now trying to make her turn northwesterly as we had through the day, today.. If this occurs she has a good chance of staying east of the Florida coast. However, if she continues west for much of today she could be on a much better course of impacting south Florida. I still feel she will continue more westerly for the next day and then finally begin turning northwesterly and finally northeasterly by Sunday.

The question will be how well organized will she be after crossing either Haiti, per the consensus, or even Cuba with a more westward motion. At this time, I anticipate she will be torn apart pretty good and will have to reorganize into Saturday and likely would only be a moderate, at best, tropical storm when impacting Florida Saturday/Sunday.