Then More Active for Next Week
There will be a lot going on the weather map as we head into and through next week but the next few days, for the most part, will still be quiet. A cold front will be approaching the Valley as we head towards Sunday and as it does, a few afternoon pop-up storms are possible Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms are likely on Sunday as the front slides into the Valley. It appears that we will get a brief hit of drier and cooler air for Tuesday and Wednesday, next week, but then it will become a bit interesting as possibly the season's first hurricane will be aiming for the Southeastern U.S.
First, lets talk about a tropical wave I have monitored since it exited Africa over a week ago. It is now southwest of Jamaica and it appears as well organized as it has on satellite. Based on what I am seeing on satellite, I believe the wave is likely now a tropical depression but we will get much better handle on that after the current Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is completed, later this afternoon. It is still early into their investigation and at this point they have not pinpointed the center of circulation; however, satellite indicates there now is one and surface observations in the area indicate falling surface pressures, too.
The wave is continuing to track to the west around 15 mph and appears it will make landfall by early Saturday along the Belize coast. If it continues its recent trends I would anticipate it to become a Tropical Storm by late Thursday or at minimum by Friday morning.
Also, watching a second wave approaching the Leeward Islands. It will arrive into the Leewards in a couple of days and as it does it will begin organizing and likely shortly after passing will become yet another tropical storm system. This is likely to happen by Sunday. Conditions will also remain favorable for rapid development and this storm will likely become the season's first hurricane. Track is still in question but through the weekend a general westerly motion is expected. The question is whether it will turn more northwesterly as it approaches Hispaniola or continue westerly, Monday/Tuesday. This will be a big deciding factor on whether the eastern coast of Florida will be in its sights or if it heads into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I will give more detailed thoughts on this wave later tonight.