Emily, this morning, looks a bit ragged on satellite and not as well organized versus yesterday and appears to be encountering a bit of shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter has just concluded its morning mission and do discover some shear and, in general, little change in Emily's strength from Tuesday. Maximum winds are still estimated at 50 mph and the minimum pressure is 1006 mb. As of 8 AM AT she was centered about 145 SSE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Emily's movement continues to be west at nearly 14 mph. If she is to follow the majority of the hurricane models and the NHC forecast she will have to begin turning more northwesterly through the day, today,. The modeling and NHC forecast have Emily crossing the island of Hispaniola tonight. Initially making landfall in the southwest Dominican Republic, this evening, and moving NW across Haiti, overnight.
Still, there are a few models staying in my camp of keeping Emily more west and eventually trying to get into the Gulf of Mexico and this includes the Canadian and NOGAPS. Until I see a turn begin to the northwest, which I think will still begin in about 24 to 36 hours rather than 12, I will stick with a further west track than NHC.