I have very little change in my thoughts from last evening with regards to severe weather the next few days. May be a bit less of a threat than I first thought for this afternoon/evening across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest; however, severe storms are still expected to develop, especially from northeast Kansas into western Iowa. The main threat with these storms will be damaging hail and wind gusts with a few isolated tornadoes.
Friday's and Saturday's forecasts look nearly identical to my previous thought so no real changes there. One bit of good news, though, is for those of you in the Tennessee Valley, looks like the main threat of storms holds out until later in the evening Saturday into Sunday. Hopefully, this will hold true and you will have the chance to get in those Saturday outdoor plans.
Cold front will slowly move eastward through the heart of the nation through the end of this week and weekend. In its advance warm and moister air will exist and it will mix, along the front, with cooler air. This will help to trigger thunderstorms and some of these will be strong and severe in nature. For your Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a large area of SLIGHT RISK across much of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into Kansas. Strong instability and vertical wind shear will lend to the development of some supercell storms with tornadic potential, especially from northeast Kansas into southwest Minnesota. I would not be surprised if a moderate risk of severe weather is outlined by SPC in the morning for Thursday.
By Friday, the severe threat shifts eastward to the Mississippi River from Minneapolis southward to New Orleans. The SPC has encompassed the region surrounding the Mississippi River with a SLIGHT RISK. Similar to Thursday, significant parameters such as low level moisture, instability and shear will exist to set up the potential for tornadoes, especially along the Lower Mississippi Valley. I also anticipate a moderate risk being issued for much of Louisiana, Arkansas and southern Missouri for Friday.
Saturday, the severe weather emphasis will move further east, into the Ohio Valley/Mid South. It will also stretch southwestward back into eastern Texas. Current computer modeling indicates the threat of a significant severe weather event across east Texas into Louisiana with the threat for large hail and tornadoes. I will take another look at this with Thursday's post.
It is quite cool for many in the eastern half of the U.S. Highs today, will be averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and up into New England. The cool pocket will remain over the East on Wednesday but the coolest air will be confined into New England. The further west you go, the warmer it will already be turning. In fact, across the Plains, it will not be below normal but rising 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This warmth will be setting its eyes eastward and it will make it there in just a couple of days.
On Thursday, below normal coolness with be confined to the Atlantic Coast and New England while above normal warmth will already make it as far east as the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The opposite end of the spectrum will be occurring, though, in the West. Temperatures across much of region will be 10 to 25 degrees below normal. With a sharp gradient in warmth and coolness you can almost always guarantee a major weather situation is brewing. That will likely be the case across the Plains. I anticipate we will be dealing with a widespread severe weather situation, Thursday, from Nebraska to the Red River. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a SLIGHT RISK from Iowa into northern Texas for 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Friday. If all comes together as several of the forecast models indicate, I would anticipate the risk being increased to MODERATE for much of this area, especially along and south of I-70 through Kansas to Kansas City and southward to the I-40 corridor in Oklahoma. One of the computer forecasts predicts a Tornado Index nearing 10 (scale 0-10) across Kansas and Oklahoma!
By Friday, the warmth moves to the Atlantic Coast with well above normal warmth making its way into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic. The severe weather threat will also moves eastward from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to the Gulf Coast. Again, there will be abundant shear in the atmosphere so storms will have the potential of large hail and of becoming tornadic. The severe weather threat will then shift into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and continue southwestward through much of Mississippi. I will be able to fine tune this as we begin to get closer to the event.
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This past Saturday was very busy across much of the nation with regards to severe weather. Sixty-nine reports of tornadoes were reported with several being of long-tracked, long-lived, violent tornadoes. One of which occurred in Yazoo City, MS where the National Weather Service estimated the strength of the tornado at EF-4 with winds of 170 mph and a destruction path at times 1.75 miles wide. The entire path of detrusction with this particular tornado occurred for approximately 97 miles.
Across northern Alabama, at least four tornadoes touched down across Cullman, Marshall and DeKalb counties. One across Cullman County, the remnants of the Yazoo City storm, was rated as EF-2 with 115 mph winds.
A second storm system spawned two separate EF-3 tornadoes that stretched across Marshall and DeKalb Counties. The first impacted the communities of Albertville and Geraldine.
The second EF-3 touched down near the community of Mentone
Yet a third EF-3 tornado touched down near the community of Mt. Vernon about an hour later. This was quite rare as the occurrence of EF-3 rated tornadoes is only about 3% of ALL tornadoes.
During this severe weather event, a tool the is exclusive to the WAAY 31 in the Tennessee Valley and is also used by other stations across the country, the Baron Tornado Index (BTI), provided Brad Huffines and myself with valueable information regarding the tornadic potential of each individual thunderstorm. This allowed us to be able to enhance awareness to storms that could become potentially tornadic prior to even a tornado warning being issued or clear circulation being noticed by radar or ground observations. Two particular occurrences took place with regard to the EF-3 tornadoes that impact the counties of Marshall and DeKalb.
Prior to the 10 PM newscast, we had been tracking a storm with history of producing a tornado across Blount county. As the newscast began, we lead the show with this storm and provided a storm track that indicated the storm would reach the community of Hyatt around 10:11 PM. Then at 10:09 PM, we lead the news, after the break, with an update on the storm. The BTI had spiked to 5.5 from dwindling down into the 3s and as we spoke new imagery indicating BTI values had climbed into at least the 8 range. There was still no tornado warning in effect; however, we notified our viewers of the potential for strong winds and even tornadic winds with this storm. Finally, a storm track was provided and it indicated the storm would arrive into Albertville around 10:24 PM. At 10:15 PM a report of a possible tornado arrived from Hyatt and then another arrived at 10:24 PM from Albertville. The BTI helped us provide viewers with potentially life-saving awareness of an impending dangerous storm.
We continued to track the BTI through out the life of this storm and it did pulse down for awhile falling into the 4's before pulsing back up into the 7's as it approached northern DeKalb county and Mentone.
Lastly, as we continued to track the storm move from Albertville through Geraldine to Mentone we also began to pay close attention to a storm further southwest moving towards southern Marshall and DeKalb counties. This was due to, again the history of producing tornadoes, and the increasing BTI. The BTI had risen with this storm, similarly to the one above, from the 3s to the 5s and then into 7s as it moved into DeKalb County. The first rise into the 5s occurred a hour prior to the storms arrival. Again providing advance warning that may have saved lives.
If you would like to learn more about the tracks and intensities of these storms simply go to http://www.stormforce31.com/
As anticipated, the weather is starting to turn towards the active side this afternoon. The first severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued in Colorado and in Kansas with more expected as we continue through the afternoon and evening. A tornado watch has also been issued until 9 PM for eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
Also, the afternoon day 2 convective outlook for 7 AM Friday through 7 AM Saturday has been issued by the Storm Prediction center and as discussed as likelihood in the previous post, a moderate risk has been highlighted. It is a bit further south than I had anticipated earlier this morning and encompasses southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
Make sure to stay weather aware the next few days. I will also be posting frequent updates on my twitter site @dopplerdalewx and occasionally on the Doppler Dale Facebook Page. I welcome you to follow the updates.
A vigorous Spring storm system is spinning out of the southwestern U.S. and is it moves into the southern Plains, today, it will begin to mix warm/moist air with colder air setting up the potential for thunderstorms and widespread rainfall. The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk for severe storms for Thursday into Friday morning for most of Oklahoma, Kansas, western Texas and eastern Colorado. The main threat with these storms will be large hail but there is a chance for tornadoes, too, especially across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.
In addition to the area of strong to severe thunderstorms, the warm, humid air moving northward into cooler air will allow for a band of rainfall to develop and move northward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley into Iowa and the Ohio Valley, today and tonight. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible with this rainfall but these storms will likely remain below severe limits. Some substantial rainfall is likely along the Missouri river from South Dakota into Missouri where 1" to 2" of rain is possible by sunrise Friday.
On Friday, a very warm and humid atmosphere will set up over much of the southeastern U.S. This is just the primer for storms into Saturday. The corridor of storms for Friday will set up from east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. As of Thursday morning, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area of Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday which encompasses much of the center of the nation. By tonight or at least Friday morning, I would not be surprised to see the new convective outlook to have a moderate risk area outlined, especially over much of Missouri and Arkansas as dynamics of the system are forecast to be quite strong and conditions will be favorable for severe storm development. This will be dependent, though, are where the remnants of today's storms exist Friday morning. This includes the remnant rain cooled air, and cloud cover. There will be the continued potential with these storms, on Friday, for large hail and isolated tornadoes.
By Saturday, the severe storm threat pushes further eastward into the southern Ohio Valley southward through the Tennessee Valley and to the Gulf Coast. Again, a current large area of slight risk is indicated by the Storm Prediction Center for much of the southeastern U.S. It is likely, that as we get closer to Saturday, we will see a moderate risk for severe storms to be highlighted. At this point, I would be leaning from central Tennessee through Alabama but things can still change so I encourage you to stay up-to-date for the very latest.
I am also strongly encouraging you to have a severe weather notification system near you at all times so you can be alerted when severe weather becomes imminent. This can include a radio, tv, weather radio or best of all Weather Call. I use Weather Call to keep my family safe and I recommend it for you, too. Never heard of Weather Call before? What is it? It is a notification service that can notify you up to 3 different ways anytime a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued for your registered location. It uses geo positioning and compares your location to that of the warning and only notifies you when you are in the warned area. It is much more accurate than a weather radio because the warnings you receive from a weather radio is for an entire county while Weather Call is much more specific. I encourage you to learn more by clicking here. You can also subscribe for just $6.95 per year. If you are not sure if it is worth the investment than please read what others have said.
If you have thought that it has been dry for this time of year you are correct. Since the start of meteorological Spring, March 1, Huntsville is more than 4" below normal and more than 6" below normal since the start of the year. For the Shoals, it is a similar story with being just shy of 4.5" below normal since March 1 and more than 5.5" below normal since the start of the year. The dryness is also now leading to portions of northwest Alabama into central Tennessee to be classified as "Abnormally Dry" by the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The lag of rainfall has helped to lead to one of the worst allergy seasons I can remember in quite some time, at least regarding the way I have had to deal with them and I know I am not alone. The sniffles and red eyes are everywhere across the Tennessee Valley. Monday's pollen count for Huntsville remains in the "Very High" category with trees, again, the main culprit. The top 3 tree species being responsible for the allergy madness are Oak, Pine and Walnut/Butternut. In addition, a low concentration of grass was noted.
We had a few rain showers pass through the Tennessee Valley Monday night into early Tuesday. Unfortunately, it was enough to cleanse the air and instead helped take the yellow dust we have seen on our cars and outdoor stuff and make it into a yellow paste. WooHoo! But real relief may soon arrive. Off to the west, approaching the California coast, a potent upper level low pressure system is heading to make its presence known. You can see the system clearly on the water vapor imagery.
This storm system will bring an unusually cool period to the southwestern U.S. through Saturday with afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s as the rule. It will also be quite rainy, too, with most of West seeing some rainfall. Some spots may see in excess of 2" By Friday morning, this storm system will move into the High Plains. The high pressure that is currently bringing us cooler weather will be sliding southeastward into Florida. This will work in conjunction with the approaching western storm system by delivering a strong southerly flow by Friday. This will help increase the moisture flow out of the Gulf of Mexico and set up the increased potential for widespread rainfall across the center of the nation by Friday evening. The storm system will be dynamic and that will help to fire thunderstorms with the rainfall. Some of these storms could become strong to even severe across the Southern Plains, Friday afternoon/evening.
The storm system will move into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley late Friday night through the day Saturday. With it will come the best chance for rainfall we have seen in several weeks. We may even see a threat for some strong to severe thunderstorms, something I encourage you to monitor. Computer forecasts are indicating the potential of an 1" or more or rainfall for Saturday for the Tennessee Valley. This would be welcomed rainfall for the allergy suffers and the farmers of the Valley.
But a Possible Phase Change in the Eruption May Be in Process
Image from NASA showing Ash Plume from Monday
The volcano that had brought air travel in Europe to nearly a complete stand still continues to erupt, today; however, there are signs that the volcano may be changing its phase of eruption from the current explosive and ash abundant one to one more of lava flows. Here is was the most recent update from the Icelandic Meteorological Office:
"At 04 o'clock this morning, seismic tremors indicated that lava flow might have begun in Eyjafjallajökull.
At 08:50 the ash cloud reached a height of 4 km, which is less than in recent days. This would suggest that water inflow at the crater is decreasing and that the ash producing phase of this eruption (see photos) is giving way to a phase of lava flow.
The Icelandic Coast Guard flew this morning (19 April) over the site and observed, at 10:30, magma splatters thrown 1.5 - 3 km into the air by explosions in the crater. No photos are available of this phenomenon at IMO yet.
Magma splatters have accumulated on the crater's rim. Splatters of magma have also fallen on the ice around the crater and this gives rise to steam plumes.
In spite of the ejected batches of liquid magma, no lava flow from the craters was detected. South of the eruptive site, the ash clouds reached 5-6 km height."
This was the view this morning at 0840 CDT from one of the webcams from near the volcano
There is other good news, too, related to the volcano. Air travel is beginning to resume with flights resuming in many European nations and again across the Atlantic to North America. Eurocontrol, the agency overseeing European air space, is predicting 14,000 flights to occur, today. That compares to a normal Tuesday of about 27,500 flights. They are also predicting that after today, more than 95,000 flights will have been cancelled since last Thursday, April 15.
The bad news is that the jetstream wind pattern will continue to track any ash to the southeast towards mainland Europe and any increase in the explosive nature of the eruption could once again sharply reduce flight air space over Europe.
A cold front passed through the TN Valley on Saturday and that has allowed for cooler air to filter into the region. How cool? We will see some morning low temperatures, Sunday, near 40 degrees! Generally a nice start to the week; however, a weak disturbance will pass us by Monday evening into Tuesday. Some model forecasts indicate the potential for a few showers with its passage but I anticipate it will remain dry with only a sprinkle or two at best. That may not be the case, though, by late week. A strong south-southwesterly flow will set up by Thursday and this will allow temperatures to quickly warm again into the 80s for highs. In addition, this flow will finally tap into some Gulf of Mexico moisture and that will aid in the possibility of finally see some well needed. pollen cleansing, rainfall Friday night into Saturday. It even appears we may see some thunderstorms, too.
Follow us on Twitter @ stormforce31, and on Facebook as well. Remain weather aware and check the 7-Day Forecast for details.
The weather in the Tennessee Valley is absolutely beautiful and nearly resort-like. This is providing for great weather for any outdoor plans you may have. In addition, with it being Spring, that is providing an added beauty, too, flowering plants and trees. So where can you go and enjoy both the weather and the flowers? The answer to that question is an easy one, the Huntsville Botanical Garden. I took my two-year old twins there, today, and we had a terrific time. The kids loved the Tremendous Treehouses exhibit and played on all of them. Yes, even my two-year olds were able to enjoy the treehouses and play safely.
The colors of the Garden were outstanding, too, from the tulips, to the pansies, to the wild flowers along the nature trail. It was also a real treat to see the landmark dogwood of the Garden in full bloom. The sad thing was to learn that half of this 100 year old beauty had died and been cut off. The Garden also informed me that this would likely be the last year of bloom for this beauty. Some of you may recall this tree was moved from a home's yard about 15 years ago and moved to the Garden.
I hope you are able to get out and enjoy this weather and will give strong consideration to heading to the Garden. I promise, you won't be disappointed.
Note: This Thursday through Sunday will also be the Garden's annual plant sale. You can come to the Garden and purchase high-quality and beautiful plants. The sale consists of hundreds of different plant species grown at the Garden and now for sale. New for 2010 will be the availability of berry and fruit trees. You can also meet the master gardeners of the Garden and have you soil's pH tested.
April has begun on a warm note for much of the Eastern U.S. Since April 1st, nearly 800 new record high temperatures have been set. For a complete list you can visit the National Climatic Data Center's Website. A change is coming and is already cooling it off to a return to Spring, across the Plains. Temperatures behind a frontal system have dropped into the 40s and 30s across Nebraska and South Dakota, as of midday Tuesday. In addition, some snow was falling in northwest Nebraska westward into Wyoming. This storm system will be heading eastward through midweek. The warmth will remain ahead of the system with more 80s and even a few 90s from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic.
As the cooler air heads eastward and mixes with the warmer and more humid air, thunderstorms will fire. They will first start across eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward to the Red River late Tuesday afternoon through evening. Overnight and into Wednesday, they will spread to the Gulf Coast and Mississippi River. They will continue eastward moving through Wednesday night and into Thursday, reaching the Appalachians by midday Thursday.
Some of the storms will be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Slight Risk" for severe storms through 7 AM Wednesday from southwest Michigan through the Chicagoland area and much of western Missouri into the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma.
The Day 2 risk area, 7 AM Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday, moves into the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Behind the front, temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler for a couple of days before the warm-up begins again.
DeKalb Counties. The first impacted the communities of Albertville and Geraldine.
