Severe Weather Possible Today for Missouri/Arkansas

Heads East through Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas on Palm Sunday

A vigorous upper level storm system over northwest Oklahoma/south-central Kansas will continue to organize today.

Below it, sits a surface low and extending from the low is a cold front that extends through extreme western Oklahoma southward through western Texas as of 9 AM, Saturday.

Ahead of the front, conditions were still rather stable and surface moisture was limited with dewpoints in the low 40s across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and only in the low to mid 50s across east Texas and much of Louisiana. The flow today will continue to be southerly so some advection of moister air will flow northward through these regions increasing the low level moisture. Mix this will surface heating that will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid 60s across southern Missouri, upper 60s/low 70s across Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma and mid 70s across much of eastern Texas; chilly temperatures aloft associated with the strong upper level system; the surface front; and upper level dynamics and you set the stage for thunderstorm development. Question is, will these become severe? The overall atmosphere will become marginally unstable enough for severe weather to develop and the Storm Prediction Center has deemed enough of a risk exists to issue a "Slight Risk" for severe storms for extreme southern Missouri through most of Arkansas eastward to the Mississippi River through 7 am Sunday with the highest risk being late this afternoon through the evening hours.

Initially, these storms will likely develop as isolated super cells that will provide for medium to large hail and a few isolated tornadoes; however the overall tornado risk is low. As the storms evolve they will merge and become linear providing for the potential of high winds as the lines begin to bow out. When they bow it is possible, still, that a short-lived weak tornado could form on either end of the bow. These are known as bookend vortices.

The entire storm system will progress eastward through Saturday night and early Sunday morning. The remaining showers and storms will progress through Mississippi, western Tennessee and into Alabama, early Sunday morning; however, they will likely no longer be severe as conditions will not be favorable. The front will lag, though and that means the possibility of new severe storms firing Sunday afternoon/evening. The question is how far west will they begin to fire and that will be highly dependent on the amount of clearing that can occur behind the morning showers/storms. The setup is looking similar to that which occurred on Thursday but a bit further eastward. As a result, anticipating that new storms will begin to develop early Sunday afternoon just west of I-65 and progress rather quickly eastward through eastern Alabama much of Georgia and south Carolina. Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Slight Risk" of severe weather to cover these areas. Similar to what is expected today, initial storms will likely be single cells that will hen form into lines producing the highest severe risk of large hail and damaging winds.

Note, you may experience hail that appears rather large and size and wonder why there is no warning in affect. The reason is that the National Weather Service recently changed the severe criteria of hail size. Previously, the severe criteria was "penny size" or officially ¾ of an inch diameter hail. Now the criteria is "quarter size" or 1" diameter hail. This will likely impact the number of warnings issued. I already noticed this during the recent storms that occurred Thursday here in the Tennessee Valley. We had several reports of penny size hail but only had a couple of warnings and they were mainly for the couple of tornadoes that occurred.

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Watching Possible Threat for Severe Weather in the TN Valley

Lots of clouds and rain this morning across the Tennessee Valley; even seen a few thunderstorms. Now we watch a storm system to the west for the potential of severe weather later today.

As of midday, starting to see clearing rapidly move to the east. This morning it was located across Arkansas/Louisiana and now it has already advanced through most of Mississippi and now and is knocking on the door of northwest Alabama. You can watch it spread across the area by viewing the WAAY 31 Jerry Damson Tower Cam located in Florence.

As the sun makes its appearance, temperatures are quickly moving in the upward direction. Tupelo, for example, has gone from 56 to 65 in just 3 hours. Dewpoints are also moving upward. Tupelo's dewpoint is now at 58 and may rise briefly into the low 60s; however, the dryline front is rapidly progressing eastward and is located Dyersburg-Greenwood, MS. This could become the focus of storms but currently the focus is the main cold front now along the Mississippi river, the secondary wind shift.

At this time, it appears storms could move into northwest Alabama between 3 and 5 pm. I am still not convinced on much severe weather, today. Those that do occur will have the main threat of hail and gusty winds. There is shear in the atmosphere so some spin is possible but not expecting tornadoes to be widespread. You can never completely rule an isolated one out but I am not overly concerned for that.

Tale of Two Seasons

Winter for Some, Spring for Others

Strong late winter storm system is now moving through Oklahoma with the upper level energy spinning through northern New Mexico. A potent cold front is stretched from southwest Michigan, south of Chicago and Kansas City and southward east of Oklahoma City and into northern Texas. Temperatures on Friday have been 20 to 40 degrees colder than 24 hours previous for much of the Plains behind this front and there has been SNOW, too.

This system is going to intensify and slowly progress eastward over the next day and that is going to set up the strong likelihood of a major late winter storm for much of eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks of Missouri.

Here are some updated forecast snowfall numbers for the the area I believe will be hardest hit:

Oklahoma City 7" to 10"
Tulsa 8" to 11"
Springfield, MO 3" to 7"
Witchita 3" to 7"

The entire storm system will slowly progress eastward and a few flakes of snow mix with rain as far south as a Dallas-Monroe-Tupelo-Huntsville line Sunday through Monday morning.

Hope You Haven’t Put Those Snow Shovels Away Yet

More Snow Likely from Plains into Great Lakes; Severe Weather Southern Plains into the Southeast

It has been a busy week here with one of the twins being sick and then them having Spring break. That has equaled time not available to neither look at the weather nor provide blog posts but things are much quieter today. For the first time in a week, as I am typing this post I am seeing a bright, yellow ball in the sky. I believe it is the elusive sun. A slow progressing trough has kept much of the southeastern U.S. shrouded in low cloud cover which in turn has kept temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Things are beginning to change and instead of seeing temperatures below normal we will now see temperatures swing the opposite direct for much of the nation east of the Mississippi through Saturday and along the Atlantic Coast through Sunday. However, don't be fooled as another potent storm system will be progressing eastward from the Plains into the Southeast through Sunday, too, and it will bring another round of winter with it.

Currently, the energy that will spin up this system is in two parts with one now dropping southeastward through British Columbia, Canada and the other slowly moving southeastward out of northern California. By Friday morning, the Canadian piece will have made its way into eastern Idaho and the California piece will be moving over "Sin City". In response to these two pieces of energy moving towards each other, a large swath of precipitation will develop across much of the Rockies from western Montana into the "4-Corners" and eastward in the High Plains of Kansas and Nebraska and the Blackhills of South Dakota. There will also be a sharp temperature gradient that will stretch from northern Wisconsin-northwest Iowa-southwest Kansas. This sets up the likelihood of most of this precipitation falling in the form of SNOW. Denver will likely see a 3" to 6" snowfall from Friday into early Saturday.

As we head through Friday night and into Saturday morning, the two pieces of energy will merge into one storm system allowing the system the ability to strengthen and develop and a well organized surface area of low pressure over northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Moderate to heavy precipitation will spread from southeast Wisconsin through much of Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Of this, much of it will be in the form of SNOW, especially from Milwaukee-Cedar Rapids-St. Joseph-Wichita-Amarillo. The sharp temperature gradient that will exist will make for a sharp separation from rain to snow and cities such as Kansas City, Tulsa and Oklahoma City could become included in this snow area by Saturday morning.

Continuing through Saturday, the storm system will continue to strengthen and deepen and even become closed off over eastern Oklahoma. At the surface, the low will be moving through northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri. The cold air will be slow to sink south of Milwaukee but will be crashing southward and eastward through Oklahoma, Texas and westward Missouri. Some very heavy snowfall is possible for southeast Kansas through much of western Missouri and into the Quad Cities of Iowa/Illinois. This also means Oklahoma City and Tulsa will likely see a late season snowfall during the day on Saturday. Further east and south from central Arkansas into southeast Texas severe thunderstorms will be likely.

By Sunday morning, the storm will have likely continued to strengthen and be located near Memphis with a surface low just to the south of St. Louis. A line of strong to severe storms will be lined up from the surface low through western Kentucky/Tennessee and to the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast. Snow, some heavy, will continue to fall from southwestern Michigan through Chicagoland into central Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. The system will likely progress much more slowly through the day Sunday as it predominantly sits and spins. Some of the heaviest snows on Sunday could fall along and north of I-70 from Columbia to St. Charles, Missouri. It will interesting to see exactly how this system sets up but it is quite possible that snow will fall across southeastern Missouri while it is raining in central Missouri and possibly Chicago, Sunday afternoon, as the cold air wraps around and drops southeastward behind the surface and upper lows and warmer air flows northward out ahead of them.

Based on today's forecast storm track and intensity, here is my first snowfall forecast through Sunday morning:

Denver 3" to 6"

Wichita 5" to 8"

Kansas City 6" to 9"

Tulsa 3" to 5"

Oklahoma City 3" to 6"

Springfield, MO 5" to 9"

Columbia, MO 6" to 10"

Des Moines 3" to 6"

Moline, IL 4" to 7"

Chicago 2" to 5"

Milwaukee 2" to 5"

After this storm system passes, I do believe it will remain cold relative to normal for much of the eastern U.S. through next weekend taking us to the end of March. Appears April will start providing more of a Springish weather regime with warmer temperatures. Stay tuned.

Night of Severe Weather Brings Tornadoes; More Severe Weather Possible Thu/Fri

As a nearly stationary upper system spins over the Missouri Valley, additional individuals pieces of energy continue to rotate around it, One spun threw the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday evening and delivered the season’s first widespread severe weather event with a total of 168 severe weather reports. Of those, 5 were of tornadoes with four being reported in Arkansas and one in Louisiana. The remainder was of large hail and damaging winds.

Of the tornadoes that occurred, it appears the strongest may have occurred across three counties in central Arkansas: Saline, southwest of Little Rock, and White and Cleburne Counties northeast of Little Rock. The tornado in Saline County occurred around 6:30 PM near the community of Benton and tracked to the northeast. Per the National Weather Service, at least 20 houses were damaged but no injuries. The same complex of storms later spun up the additional tornados in White and in Cleburne Counties. The tornado that touched down in White County did so near the community of Center Hill around 8:30 PM. The National Weather Service reports that at least nine houses were damaged and one injury occurred. The third tornado occurred shortly after 9 PM in Cleburne County near the community of Pearson. Several homes were badly damaged and at least 3 severe injuries were reported by the National Weather Service. The county sheriff has released additional information confirming that there was one fatality associated with the tornado.

Here is some video of some of the funnel clouds and possible tornado from Fox 16 in Little Rock

Another tornado touched down in Arkansas near Ozan in Hempstead County where it did minor damage to a building. The final tornado touched down in southeast Louisiana near the community of Terrebonne in Cocodrie Parish.

The National Weather Service forecast offices in Little Rock, Shreveport and New Orleans will send survey crews out today to confirm the damage and to identify the strength of the tornadoes and to see if any additional tornadoes occurred.

For today, the next piece of energy is now spinning out of New Mexico. It will track across Texas through Thursday and into the lower Mississippi Valley early Friday. As it does so, it will likely begin to develop more thunderstorms across Louisiana and Arkansas this evening. Some of these storms may reach severe limits. A better chance of severe weather will occur after midnight across northern Mississippi and spreading eastward across Alabama into Georgia during the morning and afternoon hours of Friday. Most likely severe weather threat will be large hail and damaging winds.

Strong to severe storms will also be likely across much of Florida, today. Especially for those of you along and south of I-4 with the main threat being strong gusty winds.

Active Spring Week Rockies Eastward

A nearly stationary weather pattern is going to equal a busy, unsettled weather week for most of us east of the Rockies. First of several impulses is spinning around a cut-off upper rotation over the Plains. It his bringing a band of rain/showers from the Mississippi River eastward and I-70 northward, today. The next piece of energy will rotate eastward out of the 4-corners region on Wednesday and by late Wednesday evening will be making its way into southeast Kansas. This will set up for the potential of some strong and even severe thunderstorms Wednesday late afternoon through early Thursday morning from northeast Texas through northern Louisiana and northward through much of Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. The highest likelihood for severe weather will be from the ArklaTex northward into southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri. A slight tornadic risk will exist initially as the severe weather begins but the main threat will quickly transition to damaging winds and hail. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this region of the nation under a "Slight Risk" of severe weather for Wednesday.

Thursday…during the early morning hours an additional severe weather risk area will develop across southern Mississippi/southern Alabama and extreme western Florida and the threat will likely linger into the mid-morning hours. Again, there will be an initial risk for a few tornadoes but the primary threat will be damaging winds and hail. By the afternoon hours, a slowly eastward progressing frontal system may initiate additional strong to severe storms across the Mid-South/TN Valley/Southern Ohio Valley. Again, the primary risk would likely be damaging winds and hail with only isolated tornadoes. At this point, SPC still has some uncertainty regarding the severe weather threat and as a result has decided not to issue a risk area, as of yet. In addition to the potential for some strong to severe storms over portions of the nation on Thursday, a risk for some heavy rainfall is possible along the I-70 corridor from Topeka to Indianapolis and northward to the I-90 corridor from Wisconsin into southeast South Dakota. This means the potential for flooding due to rapid snow melt across portions of the upper Midwest.

Friday…Rains will begin spreading northward through the Mid-Atlantic and into southern New England during the morning hours. A low will also be wrapping itself up across the Southeast and will begin moving to the NE. A wide swath of clouds with showers will exist from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast. Windy and cooler conditions will also begin appearing behind this system across much of the Midwest. Potential heavy rains are possible from the Mid-Atlantic to New York and this could begin leading to rapid snow melt and increasing the flood threat.

Saturday…The slow moving storm system will make its way into the Mid-Atlantic pushing the heavy and prolonged rains into New England. Still following the system will likely be a large cloud shield with scattered rain showers, breezy and cooler conditions.

Sunday…Little change is expected as the storm system spins about moving very little.

Here is one computer forecast for rainfall over the next 7-Days.

A week from now is when the pattern may begin to shake up as a ridge is forecast to build eastward from the western U.S. but that is still a bit of a way out there and as we all know things can change quite easily. I just hope you were able to enjoy the nice weekend many of us experienced because the next 5 to 7 days are not looking very nice unless you are a duck.

Nice Weekend, Then It Gets Active Again

For those of you along and east of the Rockies and south, still a nice weekend is expected. The only exception will be in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest where a system will be passing through delivering a chance for some chilly rains. The rest of us, especially those of us along and east of the Mississippi River, will see quite a bit of sunshine. In addition, we will see some nice warming temperatures. By Sunday afternoon, the 60 degree temperatures will reach as far north as Kansas City and through the Carolinas into south-central Virginia. The warming will continue into the beginning of next week along and south of I-40. Monday we will likely see temperatures making into the mid 70s across much of southern Texas with even 80s popping up near the Mexican border. In fact, 70s will be possible along and south of I-20 from Shreveport to Birmingham and southeastward through southern Georgia and into Florida.

But the nice weather won't last for to long. Several storm systems moving quickly will move on shore in the West and move east. The first will do so Friday into Saturday and begin delivering rain and storms to the Plains on Sunday. A few strong and possibly severe storms are possible Sunday night into Monday across east Texas. On Monday, the storms will impact the Arklatex and by Tuesday move into the central Gulf Coast.

Additional storm systems will then be eying the Pacific Coast and moving east providing more storminess late next week.

Winter and Spring All In a Week

System moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and through the Southeast today has already delivered a wide swath of wet snow accumulation through Alabama and into northern Georgia. Some of the higher terrain of northeast Alabama has seen 3” to 6” of accumulation. The highest totals received so far: Lookout Mtn-Chattanooga, TN (7”), Pisgah, AL (6”), Coker Creek, TN (6”), Collinsville, AL (5”), Mentone, AL (4”), Hayesville, NC (4”), Whitewell, TN (4”), SE Huntsville, AL (3”), Arab, AL (3”), Albertville, AL (3”) and Grant, AL (3”).

Click here for all of your local Pix and Flix

Pictures/Videos from Northern Alabama/WAAY-TV

Additional pictures from the Chattanooga area and northern Georgia from WRCB-TV available here.

This system will continue to track NNE along the Atlantic coast over the next 48 hours and will continue to deliver a wide swath of heavy wet snow accumulation along the Appalachians from South Carolina into Pennsylvania. Much of the mountains will see 4” to 6” of accumulation while the valleys will see 1” to 3” of slushy accumulation. Roads in many cases will only become slushy during the heaviest snowfall bursts, except for higher elevations. Minor accumulations will likely encompass much of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland. Snow accumulations will likely pick up again from northeast Maryland through southeast Pennsylvania into New England. First forecast numbers for a few key cities:
Raleigh, NC – 2” to 4”
Washington, DC – 1” to 2”
Baltimore, MD – 1” to 2”
Philadelphia, PA – 2” to 4”
New York, NY – 3” to 6”
Hartford, CT – 5” to 8”
Boston, MA – 6” to 9”

After this storm passes the weather turns quiet for the remainder of the week from the Rockies eastward. In fact, a nice warming trend is in store for most of us providing for a nice Spring-like weekend. Hope many of you will be able to get out and enjoy it after the winter we have had!

Computer Forecast Highs for Saturday

Computer Forecast Highs for Sunday

However, even though it will be much warmer, this weekend’s highs will still range about 4 to 8 degrees below normal from Texas to New England while becoming 4 to 8 degrees above normal in the Plains and Upper Midwest.

Sunday's Forecast Highs versus Normal

It won’t be as nice for those west of the Rockies as the next storm system will roll out of the Pacific and into California on Friday. More heavy rain is possible for much of the state with some heavy snow in the highest elevations of the Sierras. The storm system and rains will move through Arizona and Utah Saturday night through Sunday. This storm system will then eye the Plains for early next week and may become the season’s first severe weather threat for much of the nation along and south of I-70 from Kansas to Indiana. This will be monitored closely and I will post updates regarding any possible severe weather threat as we near the event.

Since severe weather may be on the way, I strongly encourage you to begin preparing and have your severe weather plan in order. Know where you are going to go in a severe weather event whether you are at home, school, work, public place or in a car. You should also have a working battery operated TV and/or radio and flashlight. I also recommend a NOAA weather radio and Weather Call. If you are not familiar with Weather Call, simply click the link to learn more. In my opinion, Weather Call is the most advanced and life-saving piece of technology available with regards to notifying you in a very timely manner of severe weather and tornado warnings. It is based on the new warning method of storm based warnings versus the old-fashioned method of issuing warnings via an entire county. This increases effectiveness and awareness of the warnings which in turn can save more lives. I strongly encourage you to at least check it out and learn more. And “Yes”, the service is available to anyone in the lower 48 even though the link is via WAAY-TV in Huntsville.

Now, if you have been thinking to yourself, “boy it sure seems like it has been quiet regarding severe weather this year?” you are right. February 2010, was the first February since records have been kept in 1950 in which there were NO tornados reported. You can read more about that here.