Spring & Severe Weather Outlook 2010

The trend of cooler than normal conditions like that we have already seen across much of the nation this winter is expected to continue this Spring, especially for those along and south of I-70. However, the El Nino that has been in place is in a rapid weakening stage and by the time we get to the start of summer we will likely be seeing near neutral conditions again in the equatorial Pacific.

The El Nino has delivered its normal calling card this winter, an active and strong southern jet steam. As the El Nino continues to weaken, there will be a lag in the weakening of the southern jet stream and as a result it will remain active and that will likely lead to above average rainfall from southern California into Texas, along the Gulf Coast and up along the Atlantic Coast.

Through March, I anticipate the northern jet stream to reign king with the southern jet just adding to the pain. That means a cold month with occasional snow. Best chances for seeing more snow will be from the Mid-Atlantic into New England and westward into the Ohio Valley. With regards to severe weather I anticipate March to be relatively quiet.

April will see the southern jet reigning as king as it gives it its last go at it with occasional intrusions of cold air still sinking southward, but much less often than in February and March. This will lead to a relatively wet month for many and that will also mean an enhanced threat for severe weather. In fact, those in the southern U.S. will likely see their stormiest period of the Spring with the most severe weather.

By May, the southern jet stream will finally weaken in response to the weakening El Nino and the more neutral conditions in the Pacific. This will lead a pleasant change for most of us, above normal temperatures. In fact, some of us may look back and wonder what happened to Spring as we go quickly from a winter-like feel to a summerish one. It will also dry out across much of the southern tier of the U.S. where the active southern jet stream had been bringing several wet systems earlier in the Spring. Severe weather will remain a threat but will begin shifting northward into the Heartland.

Overall, I expected fewer days with severe weather this Spring; however, don’t let your guard down. Even though I foresee fewer days with severe weather I anticipate the intensity of the severe weather to be a bit stronger. Meaning the opportunity will exist for more large, severe tornadoes (EF-3 and greater).

Powerhouse Storm to Hit New England; Also Watching Storm for Next Week

Some of us saw a beautiful weekend and a taste of spring but don't be fooled, Spring is not here yet. Another active couple of weeks are in store for the eastern U.S. Currently, a storm is putting down accumulating snow across Texas, again. This time the heavy snow is further south than the storm a few weeks ago that brought the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex 8" to 12". This storm will continue to progress southeastward into the Gulf of Mexico, tonight. Accumulating snow will make it into central Louisiana and then fade. The energy of the system will transfer into a new area of low pressure that will ride northward along the Atlantic coast. A new area of light accumulating snow will develop across the western Carolinas on Wednesday. It will continue to spread northward as the storm moves northward. That means more snow for the Mid-Atlantic but much, much less than in previous storms this winter, only a couple of inches at best. The storm merges with additional upper level energy by Thursday morning as the low approaches the Mid-Atlantic and WOW!

This set up an Impressive Nor'Easter for Thursday into Friday, possibly the strongest storm I have seen in my short 15 years in forecasting. Along and north of I-80 in Pennsylvania and north and eastward through New York, New Jersey and throughout New England, massive snow is likely with winds that will howl, 20-40 MPH, too. Forecast models are indicating a potential minimum pressure of the system as 980 millibars or 28.93" of mercury. The "Great Blizzard of 1888" had a minimum central pressure of 982 mb and had winds in excess of 45 mph. Snowfall with that storm was between 40" and 50" in spots. A scenario similar appears to be setting up. Will we see snowfall in excess of 40"? Possibly yes. At this point the most likely location for the most extreme snowfall will be from northern Pennsylvania through much of New York and into New England. My first forecast for New York City is 12" to 18".

Now for next week, I have been watching the long range models since last week for a possible storm during the first few days of March. Knowing how the models typically work, their solutions traditionally flip and flop and go all around but the key is to watch their trends and look at the BIG picture. One thing that is appearing to me is consistency and a general trend that a potential BIG storm is brewing for the start of March. The energy that will help develop this storm is currently south of the western tip of the Aleutian Islands in Alaska.

So where is this storm to spin up? It appears it will be another Gulf system that will track up the Eastern U.S. coast. Still a lot of questions regarding the storm such as the intensity of the upper level energy and specific track but there is the potential for yet another accumulating snow in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Definitely a watcher. I will keep you up-to-date on this storm over the next few days.

Lastly, if you live in the Tennessee Valley make sure to tune into WAAY 31 News tonight at 10 PM for the Tennessee Valley Spring Outlook. For the rest of you, I will post the national Spring Outlook by Thursday evening. If all goes well I will have it posted on Wednesday.

Potent Clipper To Spread More Widespread Snowfall

I wanted to provide this post yesterday but I was WAAY to busy at the station with regards to the horrific shooting at the University of Alabama Huntsville. My thoughts and prayers are with the injured and the affected families. May God bring all involved peace during this trying time. I still am at wonder at how someone could do such a heinous act of violence on others. I know I have had days go "really" bad but I would never think of shooting others. Even if I was extremely frustrated with others. The last week for those of us in northern Alabama has been shocking. Never did we think it would happen here but now it has, TWICE! It is time now for all of us to bind closer to bring back our sense of security for the region.

Now, back to what I do and love, forecasting the weather. A very strong upper level disturbance and associated surface "Clipper" system will be dropping out of central Canada and will be diving southward through the Plains Saturday and Saturday night. With it will be a wide swath of 2" to 5" of new snowfall. This area will stretch from the eastern Dakotas through southwestern Minnesota and western Iowa, yes Des Moines looks like more snow for you. The 2"-5" snow will continue to stretch southeastward through much of Missouri for Chillicothe to St. Louis to Paducah. Then it appears that the 2" to 4" band will greatly widen as we head through Sunday night and Monday. I will draw the northern boundary of the 2"-5" along the Ohio River from Paducah to Cincinnati then up to Canton, Ohio then eastward to Williamsport, Pennsylvania, northward to Syracuse. On the southend, will start the boundary Newark, New Jersey to Philadelphia to Baltimore to Bristol, Virginia, along the spine of the Appalachians into Chattanooga, across northern Jackson County in Alabama into Franklin County Tennessee to Crossville, TN to Paducah. Surround the 2"-5" will be a large area of 1" to 2" of snow that will sink back into the south from Jackson, Mississippi to Birmingham to near Atlanta. For those of you in Alabama and especially the Tennessee Valley, I encourage you to check back later this evening after 8 PM as I will refine my thoughts.

Still On Track For Significant Deep South Snow

Models this morning continue the trend of ticking northward and every little tick northward shifts the potential heavy snow and accumulating snow a tad further north. However, still appears that significant widespread moderate to heavy snowfall is expected in areas not accustomed to it. The snow is already ongoing in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex and I admit that as of Wednesday, I anticipated the heavy snow setting up just to its south. That isn't my thought, now. Looks like the Metroplex will see 4" to 8" of snow today into tonight. This heavy snow band will continue to shift eastward tonight and into Friday. It will also expand in coverage. So here is my updated snowfall accumulation forecast:

 

The 1" boundary will encompass:

Clovis, NM-Childress, TX-Chickasha, OK-Ft. Smith, AR-Hot Springs, AR-Rosedale, MS-Aberdeen, MS-Arab, AL-Chattanooga, TN-Along the South Carolina/North Carolina Border to the Coast on the northern edge. On the southern edge Savannah, GA-Tifton, GA-Tallahassee, FL-Gulf Shores, AL-Slidell, LA-Turkey Creek, LA-Waco, TX-Hobbs, NM

The 3" boundary will encompass:

Wichita Falls, TX-Wynnewood, OK-Mena, AR-Eudora, AR-Macon, MS-Tuscaloosa, AL-Pell City, AL- Centre-AL-Dalton, GA-Augusta, GA-Charleston, SC-Macon, GA-Dothan, AL-Mobile, AL-Alexandria, LA-Nacogdoches, TX-Hillsboro, TX-Eastland, TX-Wichita Falls, TX

The 6" and locally up to 10" boundary will encompass:

Longview, TX-Atlanta, TX-Vicksburg, MS-Jackson, MS- Meridian, MS-Alexander City, AL-Auburn, AL-Atmore, AL-Hattiesburg, MS-Natchez, MS-Mt. Enterprise, TX-Tyler, TX-Longview, TX

I-20 Corridor to See Snow; Possible Even to Gulf Coast

Models continue to show the southern track of the forecast low from the southern tip of Texas, across the central Gulf of Mexico and into Florida. The upper air data still only captured about half of the actual upper system this morning so it has not been entirely sampled yet but close. There is some what of a northern tick in this model run versus those of yesterday and I think that will be the case to some extent for the next couple of runs but in general I still think the I-20 corridor is the area under the gun with this snow. That will be from near Dallas through Shreveport to Birmingham and into Georgia.

This storm system will likely produce a wideband of 1” to 3” with a maximum band of 3” to 6”. I’ll take my edge of the 1” line from along the Red River to Greenwood, Mississippi to Athens, Georgia to Columbia, South Carolina on the north and Savannah, Georgia to Dothan, Alabama to Baton Rouge, Louisiana to Huntsville, Texas to Odessa, Texas. The heavy band (3” to 6”) will set up, 35 miles north and south of a line from Hillsboro, Texas to Jackson, Mississippi to Montgomery, Alabama to Columbus, Georgia. The width of this area may increase some in Mississippi and Alabama but I wait on that for another model run or two.

At this point, though, I do think the flakes will fall as far south as Mobile to Tallahassee but I am not anticipating it will accumulate.

Will post a brief update on this again late this evening.

It’s Time for A Deep South Snow; Exactly Where is Still in Question

An impressive winter storm is aiming for New York City/Long Island/Boston. DC will see another snowy blast, too, but the main focus is around New York City and along Long Island where 1 to 2 feet of snow is possible with very strong winds, too. DC    likely to remain in the 6" to 10" band.

My focus now is looking back to the California Coast where the next storm system in the parade exists, today. This system will come ashore tonight and begin moving across the U.S. Mexico border through the Desert Southwest through Thursday. On Thursday, a surface low will develop near Brownsville, Texas. In addition, abundant moisture will be streaming northward through eastern Texas. On the northern edge, snow will develop. This will include northern Texas (Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex), southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas. The snow will shift eastward on Friday along the I-20 corridor through Louisiana, Mississippi and into Alabama. Still some questions on the exact track of the surface system but models are leaning southward. That means accumulating snow may fall as far south as Mobile-Pensacola! I am not saying that with confidence, though. The upper level energy was not well captured by upper air data since it was still off the California coast during this morning's balloon launches. It may still be off coast some during the 6 PM CT launch but will be captured some by the balloons. Wednesday morning's launch will gather the best initial data with this system and so confidence into the modeling will be higher 24 hours from now.

New York, It’s Your Turn; Then Snow Heads South

We had a surprise snow in the Tennessee Valley this morning. You may ask, "How is that possible to be surprised?" Well, meteorology is still not a perfect science and things don't always go as expected or forecast. I can honestly say, there is nothing that would have forecast 1"-5" of snow across about a 30-40 mile wide swath of northern Alabama in a period of just 2 to 3 hours. When I last worked, Saturday, one model showed the possibility of some very light precipitation starting by early afternoon and I thought to myself, "if that is right maybe a little snow or mix" but I never thought it would be anything of consequence, much more nearly 5" in portions of Lauderdale County. WOW! It was definitely a surprise and a lot of fun. Image Obtained Via NWS-Huntsville

Good news is that the rains have arrived and arrived in time to wash the snow away so the drive home was much easier.

The Tennessee Valley wasn't the only ones surprised. I spoke to a relative in Conway, Arkansas, earlier today and she was also surprised to wake up to snow on the ground. She was expecting just rain eventually turning to snow later in the day and then getting some accumulation. When I talked to her mid-afternoon they already had 6"! I told her she must not have read the blog. She admitted that. Looks like up to 12" is possible there. Just a tad more that I had thought yesterday when I placed Conway into the 6"-10" band.

Now the system continues eastward and where is the snow going? Well, very little change into my thought of yesterday with this storm. Still a wide swath of 6" to 10" of snow from the Eastern Iowa along and north of I-80 through northern Illinois (Yes, Chicago that includes you!) and into Ohio. In fact, from Ohio and most of southern Michigan east-southeastward through Pennsylvania back into northern Virginia, through Maryland northward into southern New England another large covering of 6" to 12" of new snow is expected. This includes DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Long Island and Boston. The bulls-eye appears as if it will be from along I-95 from DC-New York City where another 8" to 16" is likely. I think the most likely area with this storm seeing 16" or even as much as 2' or more will be across New Jersey into Long Island. Also, looks like the wind will really blow with this storm, too, making for a true blizzard set up.

We if that is not enough snow talk for you, how about snow along the I-20 corridor! That is right, I feel pretty confident that snow will be falling and accumulating within 50 miles of I-20 from Texas to Georgia, late week. There is still question on a specific track that a storm system will take but it appears certain a system is coming and it will move out of Texas and across the Gulf of Mexico. If it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico, expect snow to accumulate as far south as a line from Austin-Baton Rouge-Dothan (AL)-Waycross (GA). If it moves closer to the Gulf coast the southern edge of the accumulating snow will be along and near I-20. Now, the energy that will spin up this system is currently of the Oregon/Washington Coast. So it won't be handled very well until upper air data starts capturing it, likely Tuesday evening or early Wednesday. Right now, my confidence is on the higher side of things for snow definitely to impact northern Texas Thursday into Friday. Dallas, you may be looking at a possible 3" to 6" snow with this event; however, we are still several days out and a lot can still change. I encourage you to stay up-to-date with the very latest over the next several days if you live along and south of I-40 from the Texas Panhandle to Raleigh and southward to the Gulf Coast as you all have a chance of seeing accumulating snow with the late week system. I will take another look at this system on Tuesday and provide some further details. Check back!

Another BIG Snow for the Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic

Another complex situation setting up with more snow for some of you in the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic and northward tonight through Tuesday. It will be a one-two punch with a southern stream wave and an Arctic front and wave. The two will be coming together to spread abundant snow cover to much of the US along and north of I-40, again. Those of you in DC, Philly and throughout Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey are you ready for more snow! I hope so because you are going to have snow on snow and it isn't just a few additional inches, either.

Now the way it appears things are going to turn out is that the track of the main surface wave may be a tad further south than what it appeared just a few days ago. At this time, it appears the surface wave will track across Texas on Monday into south-central Louisiana by early Tuesday. It will then turn northeastward and move across northern Alabama through Tuesday morning and then into Ohio. A secondary wave will spin up off the Carolina coast and track northward late Tuesday through Wednesday.

This all sets up the expected widespread snowfall for many. I anticipate two areas of snowfall maximum with this set up. The first will set up with the surface wave moving out of Texas into Louisiana. I anticipate an area of very heavy snowfall across Arkansas, along the I-40 corridor from Waldron, AR-Conway, AR-Jonesboro, AR where 6" to 12" is possible. Little Rock is on the very bitter edge of the Rain/Snow line and could very easily fall into this band, too. Right now I think Little Rock will be in a 3" to 7" inch band of snow. Memphis is also on the bitter edge and right now I am putting them in the 2"-4" band. Just to the north for location into the southern Missouri bootheal east towards Dyersburg, TN will be in my 3" to 6". Further north up to I-7 through Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana and western Kentucky I am disagreeing with the National Weather Service. I believe amounts here will be less than their current thinking. I am only anticipating 2" to 4". Some spots may see only an inch or two. Reason for this minimum is that I think much of the moisture will be robbed to the south and southeast with the surface low.

Further north, along the Arctic front and wave another maximum is expected from the eastern Dakotas through southwest Minnesota into eastern Iowa and across northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and also through southern Wisconsin and Michigan. This area will likely see a wide swath of 6" to 10" with isolated higher amounts. A third maximum will occur from DC to New York where another 4" to 8" of snow will fall Tuesday into Wednesday.LIT 6"-10"

I continue to watch yet another storm system for later in the week that could bring snow to northern Mississippi to northern Georgia on Friday. More on that on Monday.

Have the Shovels/Ice Melt Ready if You Live North of I-40; Be Ready to Bundle Up, TOO!

Get ready for a busy couple of weeks as a full return of winter is on its WAAY. If you remember in the Winter Outlook that was presented in October, I mentioned a cold winter was expected for much of the Eastern U.S. and that February would likely be the coldest. We had a period of significant chill in January with a period of a thaw but now the next two weeks is going to give early January's cold a run for its money. Cold will again make its way all the way out of the Arctic and into the eastern U.S. and as far south as the Gulf coast during this period. In addition, unlike in January, the southern jetstream is active and will bring several systems out of the Southwest and head the eastward through the southern tier of the U.S. This will likely spread snow/ice for many along and north of the I-40 corridor. May even see the chance for snow/ice making it further south all the way to the I-20 corridor, once or twice.

The first of the systems and the one that will help get the cold moving south again is a system now spinning up in the southern tip of Texas. This storm system will be tracking northeast and will move into the "Heart of Dixie" by Friday evening. Abundant rainfall will fall from southeast Louisiana through the Carolinas where a wide swath of 1" to 3" of rain is likely. Further north into the Mid-Atlantic, BIG snowfall is expected. How much? Well, if you remember just before Christmas a blizzard ravaged the Mid-Atlantic with 1 to 2 feet of snow. I expect this storm will be close to matching that storm and potentially beating it! If you live in northern Virginia, through Washington DC to the southern tip of New Jersey GET READY! This storm will also provide a large area of 8" to 12" of snowfall along I-70 through Ohio from the Indiana border and then along the I-80 corridor through Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Surround this, will be an extensive 3" to 6" snow that will stretch from central Missouri through Indiana and as far north as Long Island and as far south as the Ohio River into northwest North Carolina. In addition a wide swath of 1" to 4" snow is expected all through the Plains. Here are a few specific location forecasts:

Omaha: 3"-6"

Kansas City: 2"-4"

Des Moines: 2"-4"

Chicago: 1"-2"

St. Louis: 3" – 6"

Indianapolis: 3"-6"

Columbus, OH: 3"-6"

Pittsburgh: 5" to 8"

Philadelphia: 12"-16"

Baltimore: 16"-22"

Washington DC: 18"-24"

New York: 2"- 4"

Now this is just storm #1 for the next 7 to 10 day period. Storm #2 arrives into the Plains by Sunday evening with more SNOW. This system will merge with the next Arctic cold front that will be sliding southeast out of the Plains and through the eastern U.S., early next week, redelivering winter temperatures. This system will likely spread a wide swath of an additional 2" to 4" of snow, isolated spots up to 6" from Kansas through the Ozarks and into the Ohio Valley, Sunday evening through Tuesday. A possible storm #3 may bring snow a bit further south, I-40 corridor again? This would take place mid to late next week and it appears it would not be the last with another 2 or three to follow during the following 7 to 10 day period. It will definitely be busy and if you want snow and have not seen much yet, especially along the I-20 corridor and northward to I-40, this stretch may provide you with your chance. Stay tuned!

Models Trending Northward, Snow Becoming Likely Along I-70 this Weekend

In my last post I commented on how the possibility existed for a near repeat performance for portions of the Southeast with more wintry precipitation late this week into the start of the weekend. Well, I am not as convinced anymore and it appears a double-barreled low will set up with one heading up from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley while another will spin up off the northeastern Florida coast and head northward. This will be in response to two pieces of energy, one in the southern jetstream and the other in the northern jet, working and phasing together. The end result will be another widespread winter storm across the U.S. In general, the southern edge of the snow with this system will be along the northern edge of the heavier snow from the one last weekend. That gives you a general idea of who may see accumulating snow this time around.

First, though, a system will spin up and move north up along the Atlantic coast tonight while a Clipper like system will move through the Great Lakes. The Clipper system will put down a wide area of 1"-3" of snow from Minnesota-Wisconsin-New York. The southern edge will make it as far south as the I-80 corridor. The system that moves up the Atlantic coast; however, will provide a swath of heavier snow, generally 2" to 4" from northwest Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania. That includes the Washington DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia metro areas.

By Wednesday evening we will begin to see the first snow associated with the next BIG storm system. Snow will begin to develop over New Mexico and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Through the day, Wednesday, snow will spread further northward through Plains heading as far north as southern South Dakota and westward into in the central Rockies. The heaviest snow will be confined, though, from New Mexico into western Oklahoma, where a wide swath of 3" to 6" is likely by Wednesday evening. That means more snow for Amarillo and the I-40 corridor from Albuquerque to Elk City, Oklahoma.

Friday, the snow spreads east along the I-70 corridor making it as far east as Indianapolis before day's end. Much of the Plains will see 2"-5" of snow will this system Thursday into Friday. The heaviest snow will likely fall, Friday into early Saturday, along the I-70 corridor from Columbia, Missouri, through the St. Louis metro area into Indianapolis, Indiana. I am anticipating this area to see a wide swath of 4" to 8". This area of snow will be in relationship to low #1. The 2^nd low of the double barrel low will be moving up the Atlantic coast Friday into Saturday. That will allow additional snow to begin breaking out across northern Virginia, Maryland and into southern Pennsylvania. As the first low moves into the Ohio Valley, it will blend its moisture field with that of the Atlantic coastal low. This will provide a wide area of 4" to 8" snow from central Missouri to the Atlantic Coast along the I-70 corridor. In fact, even higher amounts of snow will pile up over the nation's capital into southern Pennsylvania. This storm will have the potential, if the track stays as seen today, of putting down another 12"+ snow for DC and Baltimore. It would not surprise me if this storm provides the season's highest snowfall from a single storm for many along the I-70 corridor from central Missouri into Ohio. Not sure it will be able to top the pre-Christmas storm, though, for the Mid-Atlantic but it may try to give it a run.

For those of you in the South who may want snow, don't give up hope. Models are indicating that behind this storm system a shot of cold will follow. Then yet another storm is forecast to spin out of Texas and along the Gulf coast middle of next week. I will keep an eye on that one and we will see.