Will "Danielle" Be Born?

The remnants of once Tropical Depression 5 have made their way back over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The center of circulation was located south of the Pensacola, Florida, Monday afternoon, and was drifting west.

As of 2:30 PM CT, the eastern side of the low had minimal cloud cover with the western side seeing quite a bit of convection. Enhanced convective development had eased through much of

the morning hours but during the last hour or so has begun once again. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft were flying the storm and had located several locations on the relatively convective free eastern side with winds of 20 to 25 mph. As of this post, they had not flown on the convectively filled western side.

I already believe the system is again a tropical depression and I would expect the National Hurricane Center to officially classify it as such by this evening. The disturbed weather will continue to find itself in a favorable environment this evening and into Tuesday as it continues to drift to the west and then northwest. This should allow the system to further develop and

organize and I anticipate it will reach close to Tropical Storm strength, becoming Danielle if it does, before making landfall Tuesday evening in southeast Louisiana. The Storm Force 31

computer forecast, BAMS, continues to indicate that Tropical Storm Danielle remains a strong

potential. It forecasts the winds of the system to reach Tropical Storm strength, minimum of 39 mph, by late tonight.

By midday Tuesday, it forecasts the system to be at its peak just prior to making landfall and continuing on a track to the northwest. This track would take the center of the system near to New Orleans.

The BAMS, is outside the consensus of most of the models by developing the system into a well organized tropical storm. The majority of the computer forecasts are forecasting a depression with near tropical storm strength or at worst a minimal tropical storm.

Either way, the energy of the system appears it will track into southeast Louisiana on Tuesday and then begin to make a turn to the north through the middle of the week. It will eventually drift towards the northeast through northern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley this weekend meaning another unsettled weekend is likely.