Last year at this time when I was putting together the fall and preliminary winter outlooks I was seeing an El Nino amidst a cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) facing me. That helped to lead to a very chilly winter for much of the eastern U.S. and especially the Southeast. This year the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction and that means a La Nina amidst a cold PDO. So can we expect opposite conditions for this fall/winter? It is appearing so even though the U.S. long range seasonal forecast model (CFS) is predicting otherwise.
The latest run of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal forecast is indicating a cool Fall across much of the eastern U.S. with the coolest being centered over the Mississippi Valley.
This is an interesting forecast that is going against the analog years I have reviewed. I have looked at similar year’s in which we have swung from an El Nino to a La Nina during the summer months and a cold PDO was present. This has provided me with the following years: 1998, 1987, 1973 and 1963. These analog years taken just by themselves and composited provide the following: 
Notice the marked difference in the image versus the CFS forecast. The composite would indicate temperatures running above to much above normal for the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valleys, the Plains and into the Rockies. In addition, warmer than normal conditions would also be likely to persist to the Atlantic Coast. It does hint at some cooler than normal conditions being possible in California. I actually think the cooler than normal conditions make extend a bit further north all along the Pacific Coast. Overall, this image fits pretty well into my thinking for this fall. So if you were hoping for the cool, refreshing feel of the season you may be saddened.
One of the most wonderful features of the season is the art show Mother Nature provides through the changing of colors the leaves and foliage. Can we expect a colorful season or somewhat more of a blah one? Unfortunately it is not looking real promising from the Tennessee Valley through the Smokies and along the eastern seaboard. . Not only has it been quite hot this summer but it has also been dry for these locations. Through June/July, some locations in these areas were more than 3” below normal.
The combination of heat and dryness has already begun to create some strain on trees in the Tennessee Valley and some leaves are already changing to browns and yellows and falling. The forecast for precipitation over the next 30 to 45 days, which will lead into the traditional change over season, will be at best, near normal; however, I anticipate much of the area remaining dry, especially for the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic.
Best fall color this year will likely be across the Rockies and through the Great Lakes where average to above average precipitation has occurred. The peak of color may be a bit slower to arrive, though, due to the predicted above normal temperatures. I would anticipate about 1 to 2 weeks later than the normal depicted in the map below.
Here are some specifics for a few key locations for this fall season:
SEPTEMBER 2010
CITY-Monthly Average Temp-Departure from Normal-Monthly Snowfall-Snowfall Departure
Chicago, IL_66.4_+2.6_NA_NA
St. Louis, MO_71.4_+1.2_NA_NA
Cincinnati, OH_70.8_+2.3_NA_NA
Minneapolis, MN_62.9_+1.3_NA_NA
Washington DC_72.9_+2.4_NA_NA
New York, NY_68.6_+1.1_NA_NA
Boston, MA_64.9_+0.2_NA_NA
Denver, CO_64.3_+1.9_NA_NA
OCTOBER 2010
CITY-Monthly Average Temp-Departure from Normal-Monthly Snowfall-Snowfall Departure
Chicago, IL_58.1_+6.0_NA_NA
St. Louis, MO_59.6_+0.9_NA_NA
Cincinnati, OH_55.9_-0.6_NA_NA
Minneapolis, MN_50.7_+1.1_0.3”_-0.3”
Washington DC_59.9_+1.1_NA_NA
New York, NY_58.1_+1.5_NA_NA
Boston, MA_55.7_+1.6_NA_NA
Denver, CO_52.5_+1.5_0.9”_-3.2”
NOVEMBER 2010
CITY-Monthly Average Temp-Departure from Normal-Monthly Snowfall-Snowfall Departure
Chicago, IL_42.8_+3.5_0.9”_-0.9”
St. Louis, MO_47.6_+2.2_0.4”_-1.4”
Cincinnati, OH_47.0_+1.5_1.2”_-0.8"
Minneapolis, MN_35.6_+2.5_3.0”_-7.0”
Washington DC_49.9_+1.2_2.4”_+1.7”
New York, NY_48.0_+0.9_1.9”_+1.5”
Boston, MA_45.1_+0.2_2.2”_+0.9”
Denver, CO_39.8_+2.3_7.9”_-2.8”
Now, I know it is still August but it is never to0 soon to begin to look past the heat of summer to the wonderful chill of winter (now you know my favorite season). I have done just that and am ready to release my preliminary winter 2010 forecast. I will do this by September 1, 2010 so make sure to check back!
Notice the marked difference in the image versus the CFS forecast. The composite would indicate temperatures running above to much above normal for the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valleys, the Plains and into the Rockies. In addition, warmer than normal conditions would also be likely to persist to the Atlantic Coast. It does hint at some cooler than normal conditions being possible in California. I actually think the cooler than normal conditions make extend a bit further north all along the Pacific Coast. Overall, this image fits pretty well into my thinking for this fall. So if you were hoping for the cool, refreshing feel of the season you may be saddened.
One of the most wonderful features of the season is the art show Mother Nature provides through the changing of colors the leaves and foliage. Can we expect a colorful season or somewhat more of a blah one? Unfortunately it is not looking real promising from the Tennessee Valley through the Smokies and along the eastern seaboard. . Not only has it been quite hot this summer but it has also been dry for these locations. Through June/July, some locations in these areas were more than 3” below normal.
The combination of heat and dryness has already begun to create some strain on trees in the Tennessee Valley and some leaves are already changing to browns and yellows and falling. The forecast for precipitation over the next 30 to 45 days, which will lead into the traditional change over season, will be at best, near normal; however, I anticipate much of the area remaining dry, especially for the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic.
Best fall color this year will likely be across the Rockies and through the Great Lakes where average to above average precipitation has occurred. The peak of color may be a bit slower to arrive, though, due to the predicted above normal temperatures. I would anticipate about 1 to 2 weeks later than the normal depicted in the map below.Here are some specifics for a few key locations for this fall season:
SEPTEMBER 2010
CITY-Monthly Average Temp-Departure from Normal-Monthly Snowfall-Snowfall Departure
Chicago, IL_66.4_+2.6_NA_NA
St. Louis, MO_71.4_+1.2_NA_NA
Cincinnati, OH_70.8_+2.3_NA_NA
Minneapolis, MN_62.9_+1.3_NA_NA
Washington DC_72.9_+2.4_NA_NA
New York, NY_68.6_+1.1_NA_NA
Boston, MA_64.9_+0.2_NA_NA
Denver, CO_64.3_+1.9_NA_NA
OCTOBER 2010
CITY-Monthly Average Temp-Departure from Normal-Monthly Snowfall-Snowfall Departure
Chicago, IL_58.1_+6.0_NA_NA
St. Louis, MO_59.6_+0.9_NA_NA
Cincinnati, OH_55.9_-0.6_NA_NA
Minneapolis, MN_50.7_+1.1_0.3”_-0.3”
Washington DC_59.9_+1.1_NA_NA
New York, NY_58.1_+1.5_NA_NA
Boston, MA_55.7_+1.6_NA_NA
Denver, CO_52.5_+1.5_0.9”_-3.2”
NOVEMBER 2010
CITY-Monthly Average Temp-Departure from Normal-Monthly Snowfall-Snowfall Departure
Chicago, IL_42.8_+3.5_0.9”_-0.9”
St. Louis, MO_47.6_+2.2_0.4”_-1.4”
Cincinnati, OH_47.0_+1.5_1.2”_-0.8"
Minneapolis, MN_35.6_+2.5_3.0”_-7.0”
Washington DC_49.9_+1.2_2.4”_+1.7”
New York, NY_48.0_+0.9_1.9”_+1.5”
Boston, MA_45.1_+0.2_2.2”_+0.9”
Denver, CO_39.8_+2.3_7.9”_-2.8”
Now, I know it is still August but it is never to0 soon to begin to look past the heat of summer to the wonderful chill of winter (now you know my favorite season). I have done just that and am ready to release my preliminary winter 2010 forecast. I will do this by September 1, 2010 so make sure to check back!
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