The remnants of what was earlier last week TD 5 are drifting back towards the Gulf of Mexico. Sunday, the low pressure circulation will move out of southeast Alabama and cross through the panhandle of Florida. By early Monday, it will once again be over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. It will also begin to find itself back in a favorable environment for development into a tropical system. I anticipate by Monday afternoon, it will again be classified as a tropical depression. Depending on its precise track, it could strengthen into a tropical storm on Tuesday. This strongly depends on a more southerly track, one that keeps it over the warm waters and further away from the coast where it would encounter some frictional shear.
Guidance on Saturday had been trending a bit further north, regarding its track, versus Friday's runs; however, the first look at the Sunday guidance is back just south of the Coast. One model that has been consistent over the past 48 hours is the Storm Force 31 BAMS model. It continues to track the low south of the Coast from near Destin west to northeast Texas by Wednesday.
On Friday, it was forecasting the system to intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday and Saturday evening's late run continued this trend. Additionally, it was forecasting the system to strengthen into a strong category 1 to a lower end category two hurricane by midday Wednesday.
I am not sure if it will have enough time and enough going for it to completely strengthen that much but I would not be surprised to see it become Tropical Storm Danielle.
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