Track Dependent; Relief May Be Delivered to the Valley
As of 10 AM CT, Wednesday, tropical depression five had a large circulation pattern but remained overall disorganized over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and storms are occurring from the Louisiana coast to southwest Florida.
The center of the depression was located at 27.8N, 86.8W or about 190 miles south of Pensacola, Florida. Minimum central pressure was 29.77” and the maximum sustained winds were 30 MPH.
The center of the depression was located at 27.8N, 86.8W or about 190 miles south of Pensacola, Florida. Minimum central pressure was 29.77” and the maximum sustained winds were 30 MPH.
Due to the broad nature of the circulation, exact track of the system is tough to discern; however, it appears to generally be drifting northwest at about 12 MPH.
Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect from Destin, Florida to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm force winds are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
As TD 5 continues to drift to the northwest through Thursday, it will encounter a more favorable atmospheric wind pattern. This will aid in allowing the system to better organize. However, the broad circulation will act as an inhibiting factor and as a result it is likely the system will be slow to strengthen and may actually struggle to ever reach tropical storm strength.
This is also being indicated by multiple computer guidance forecasts. Several of these actually forecast the depression to remain a depression through the next five days while a few others intensify it to minimal tropical storm force strength. Only a couple of the forecasts predict the system to intensify to near hurricane strength and/or indicate rapid strengthening. The Storm Force 31 forecast model also forecasts slow strengthening and maintains the depression as a depression through its life cycle.
Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect from Destin, Florida to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm force winds are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
As TD 5 continues to drift to the northwest through Thursday, it will encounter a more favorable atmospheric wind pattern. This will aid in allowing the system to better organize. However, the broad circulation will act as an inhibiting factor and as a result it is likely the system will be slow to strengthen and may actually struggle to ever reach tropical storm strength.
This is also being indicated by multiple computer guidance forecasts. Several of these actually forecast the depression to remain a depression through the next five days while a few others intensify it to minimal tropical storm force strength. Only a couple of the forecasts predict the system to intensify to near hurricane strength and/or indicate rapid strengthening. The Storm Force 31 forecast model also forecasts slow strengthening and maintains the depression as a depression through its life cycle.
Regarding the track of the system, a likely continuation of a northwestward drift is expected. This will likely allow the system to move onshore along the Mississippi coast Thursday morning. This is supported by the majority of the computer forecasts and the official National Hurricane Center Forecast.
The Storm Force 31 model is a bit east and south of the center of the official track; drifting the center of the system towards Montgomery, Alabama by midday Sunday.
The official track would be a favorable one for the Tennessee Valley in that it would help bring some potential relief from the heat. This would be due to the increased coverage area of likely showers and t-storms. This too, would be beneficial for the Valley as the portions of the Valley are experiencing abnormally dry conditions.
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