Remnants of TD 5 Going Loop-De-Loop

May Become Tropical Again?

The remnant low of what was once tropical depression 5 was meandering through southern Mississippi Friday evening. It has sent a spoke of energy across the Tennessee Valley and that help to spawn afternoon showers and thunderstorms with tropical downpours. On Saturday, it will drift to near Montgomery, Alabama and that will bring it into close proximity to the Valley to once again deliver more widespread scattered convection, especially for the southeastern half of the region from Hamilton-Decatur-Huntsville-Winchester southeastward. Locations in this zone will see afternoon rain chances in the “likely” category with precipitation chances at or above 50%.

While northwest of this line rain chances will be less and more scattered. In fact, some in northwest Alabama and Wayne and Lawrence County in Tennessee may not see any rain at all. For this reason, afternoon high temperatures will very by as much as 10 degrees from Ft. Payne to the Shoals, Saturday.



The remnant low will drift into southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia on Sunday and that will take the best rain chances to the east and south of the Valley; however, widely scattered activity is still likely for Marshall, Jackon and DeKalb Counties. The heat will again begin spreading east and by Monday as the low drifts into northwest Florida/northeast Gulf of Mexico, highs will again reach into the upper 90s and possibly top near 100 degrees again. It will also be quite humid meaning Monday will be just plain “HUMISERABLE” and heat index values will likely climb to near 110 degrees again.

As the low drifts back over the warm Gulf of Mexico, it will find itself back in an environment favorable for redevelopment and strengthening. The low may once again become a depression by Monday and strengthen even further into a potentially named tropical system by reaching tropical storm strength by early Tuesday. The low will likely drift westward as a light easterly flow around and upper level high pressure system drives its motion. By Tuesday, it will likely be tracking near the Louisianna Gulf Coast and may continue to strengthen. The Storm Force 31 in-house computer forecast model (BAMS) is indicating the possible strengthening of the low to a HURRICANE by midday Tuesday.

The system will then likely drift towards the northeastern/eastern Texas coast by Wednesday into Thursday. If you have plans along the Gulf Coast this weak it is advised that you remain weather aware regarding this system.