An Advanced Look at Winter Forecast 2010-11

As is customary for me, I try to provide an initial winter weather outlook around the first of September, just as we begin to think Fall. Why? It comes from my work experience in the private weather industry where critical planning for the upcoming winter takes place during September and October and that is when the winter outlook is so important. This includes the utility industry with regards to their planning on the amount of natural gas and heating oil will be required to heat our homes to local municipalities, state departments of transportation and the local snow plow operator and the amount of salt and anti-icing material may be required to keep our roadways clear of snow and ice and safe to commute on. This outlook is intended to assist everyone with these winter planning needs; however, it is a bit more generic. If you require a more specific winter forecast please feel free to contact me. I would be more than happy to accommodate you. Please note, depending on the request it may require additional resources that may require me to charge a minimal fee. But since this is one of my favorite things to do each year I will do my best to minimize any charges.

As is the case with the forecast for Autumn 2010, La Nina and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation will be the major dominating factors this winter. This will lead to above normal temperatures from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains/ Upper Midwest southeast and eastward. This includes the Great Lakes, Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and New England. The warmest temperatures, compared to normal, are likely to occur across the northern tier of the nation, especially in the Northern Rockies, Upper Midwest and New England.

Snowfall is likely to be near to a bit above normal along and north of the I-70 corridor. A bit more specific snowfall forecast will be released later.

Now, similar to the Fall Forecast, the Climate Prediction Center forecast for December, January, and February doesn't match up with my forecast. Instead, their prediction is for above normal conditions along the southern tier of the U.S. from southern California to the Southeast with the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Upper Plains below normal.

Here are some specifics:

December 2010

Chicago: 1.2 Degrees Above Normal, 12.8" Snowfall (4.1" Above Normal)

St. Louis: 2.2 Degrees Below Normal, 9.6" Snowfall (5.5" Above Normal)

Cincinnati: 2.6 Degrees Above Normal, 2.2" Snowfall (1.5" Below Normal)

Minneapolis: Near Normal Temperatures, 4.6" Snowfall (5.5" Below Normal)

Washington DC: 0.8 Degrees Above Normal, 3.2" Snowfall (1.7" Above Normal)

New York: 1.2 Degrees Above Normal, 5.5" Snowfall (2.9" Above Normal)

Boston: 1.0 Degree Above Normal, 6.0" Snowfall (1.6" Below Normal)

Denver: 1.7 Degrees Above Normal, 14.5" Snowfall (5.8" Above Normal)

January 2011

Chicago: 0.8 Degrees Above Normal, 15.2" Snowfall (3.9" Above Normal)

St. Louis: 1.1 Degrees Below Normal, 8.0" Snowfall (2.7" Above Normal)

Cincinnati: 2.8 Degrees Above Normal, 6.6" Snowfall (0.6" Below Normal)

Minneapolis: 1.3 Degrees Below Normal, 13.5" Snowfall (0.2" Below Normal)

Washington DC: 1.6 Degrees Above Nor0mal, 7.4" Snowfall (1.2" Above Normal)

New York: 0.7 Degrees Above Normal, 9.8" Snowfall (1.7" Above Normal)

Boston: 0.9 Degree Below Normal, 19.4" Snowfall (6.6" Above Normal)

Denver: 2.3 Degrees Above Normal, 6.3" Snowfall (1.4" Below Normal)

February 2011

Chicago: 1.2 Degrees Above Normal, 9.2" Snowfall (0.9" Above Normal)

St. Louis: 1.5 Degrees Above Normal, 4.9" Snowfall (0.3" Below Normal)

Cincinnati: 3.4 Degrees Above Normal, 2.8" Snowfall (2.6" Below Normal)

Minneapolis: 3.1 Degrees Above Normal, 3.8" Snowfall (4.4" Below Normal)

Washington DC: 0.7 Degrees Above Nor0mal, 3.7" Snowfall (1.5" Below Normal)

New York: 0.5 Degrees Above Normal, 5.8" Snowfall (1.8" Below Normal)

Boston: Near Normal, 14.0" Snowfall (2.5" Above Normal)

Denver: 2.3 Degrees Above Normal, 6.0" Snowfall (0.3" Below Normal)