Cool and Unsettled End of the Week for much of the Central-Eastern U.S.

But then the Heat Really Kicks In

Many of us saw an unsettled weekend with severe storms and periods of heavy rain. Now, a brief quiet spell is taking shape for today from the Upper Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. While It remains cloudy and cool with scattered showers from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The quiet spell in the center of the nation will be short-lived as another storm system begins to organize over the Rockies, today. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely in association to this storm system from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. At the time of this writing, a tornado watch has just been issued for most of eastern Colorado until 10 PM CT.

On Wednesday, the storm system moves into Kansas and sets up a likely severe weather outbreak for much of the southern Plains. The highest risk of severe storms will set up along I-40 in Oklahoma and southward to the Red River. The storm prediction center has already issued a MODERATE RISK for this region and I would not be surprised to see a HIGH RISK issued Wednesday morning. The main threat of severe weather will be large hail; however, along and near the I-35 corridor in southern Oklahoma, shear will be sufficient enough to increase the threat to tornadoes. Unfortunately, this does include
the Oklahoma City metro area where several significant tornadoes just recently impacted the region.

The storm will progress into Missouri on Thursday. Moderate to heavy rains are likely along the Missouri river from southeastern Nebraska to St. Louis where 1" to 3" of rain is possible. This will only add to the flooding that is taking place along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries in Missouri and Illinois. In addition to the heavy rains across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a new severe storm threat will exist across the lower Mississippi Valley; however the chances will be significantly less than Tuesday or Wednesday.

As the system continues to progress eastward on Thursday, the unsettledness and rains will move into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and Ohio Valley. Some isolated severe storms are possible but the main threat will be some potential heavy rains and flash flooding. Temperatures in advance and under this system will be generally below normal; however, once it passes by, it will heat up quite quickly. Temperatures will warm into the 80s and 90s for much of the center of the nation and the southern 1/3.