Unseasonably Cool But it Won’t Last Long

As it Turns Warmer, Severe Threat Increases Too

It is quite cool for many in the eastern half of the U.S. Highs today, will be averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and up into New England. The cool pocket will remain over the East on Wednesday but the coolest air will be confined into New England. The further west you go, the warmer it will already be turning. In fact, across the Plains, it will not be below normal but rising 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This warmth will be setting its eyes eastward and it will make it there in just a couple of days.

On Thursday, below normal coolness with be confined to the Atlantic Coast and New England while above normal warmth will already make it as far east as the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The opposite end of the spectrum will be occurring, though, in the West. Temperatures across much of region will be 10 to 25 degrees below normal. With a sharp gradient in warmth and coolness you can almost always guarantee a major weather situation is brewing. That will likely be the case across the Plains. I anticipate we will be dealing with a widespread severe weather situation, Thursday, from Nebraska to the Red River. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a SLIGHT RISK from Iowa into northern Texas for 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Friday. If all comes together as several of the forecast models indicate, I would anticipate the risk being increased to MODERATE for much of this area, especially along and south of I-70 through Kansas to Kansas City and southward to the I-40 corridor in Oklahoma. One of the computer forecasts predicts a Tornado Index nearing 10 (scale 0-10) across Kansas and Oklahoma!

By Friday, the warmth moves to the Atlantic Coast with well above normal warmth making its way into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic. The severe weather threat will also moves eastward from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to the Gulf Coast. Again, there will be abundant shear in the atmosphere so storms will have the potential of large hail and of becoming tornadic. The severe weather threat will then shift into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and continue southwestward through much of Mississippi. I will be able to fine tune this as we begin to get closer to the event.

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