Strong to Severe Storms to Impact Plains to Southeast through Saturday

A vigorous Spring storm system is spinning out of the southwestern U.S. and is it moves into the southern Plains, today, it will begin to mix warm/moist air with colder air setting up the potential for thunderstorms and widespread rainfall. The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk for severe storms for Thursday into Friday morning for most of Oklahoma, Kansas, western Texas and eastern Colorado. The main threat with these storms will be large hail but there is a chance for tornadoes, too, especially across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.

In addition to the area of strong to severe thunderstorms, the warm, humid air moving northward into cooler air will allow for a band of rainfall to develop and move northward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley into Iowa and the Ohio Valley, today and tonight. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible with this rainfall but these storms will likely remain below severe limits. Some substantial rainfall is likely along the Missouri river from South Dakota into Missouri where 1" to 2" of rain is possible by sunrise Friday.

On Friday, a very warm and humid atmosphere will set up over much of the southeastern U.S. This is just the primer for storms into Saturday. The corridor of storms for Friday will set up from east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. As of Thursday morning, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area of Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday which encompasses much of the center of the nation. By tonight or at least Friday morning, I would not be surprised to see the new convective outlook to have a moderate risk area outlined, especially over much of Missouri and Arkansas as dynamics of the system are forecast to be quite strong and conditions will be favorable for severe storm development. This will be dependent, though, are where the remnants of today's storms exist Friday morning. This includes the remnant rain cooled air, and cloud cover. There will be the continued potential with these storms, on Friday, for large hail and isolated tornadoes.

By Saturday, the severe storm threat pushes further eastward into the southern Ohio Valley southward through the Tennessee Valley and to the Gulf Coast. Again, a current large area of slight risk is indicated by the Storm Prediction Center for much of the southeastern U.S. It is likely, that as we get closer to Saturday, we will see a moderate risk for severe storms to be highlighted. At this point, I would be leaning from central Tennessee through Alabama but things can still change so I encourage you to stay up-to-date for the very latest.

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