Active Spring Week Rockies Eastward

A nearly stationary weather pattern is going to equal a busy, unsettled weather week for most of us east of the Rockies. First of several impulses is spinning around a cut-off upper rotation over the Plains. It his bringing a band of rain/showers from the Mississippi River eastward and I-70 northward, today. The next piece of energy will rotate eastward out of the 4-corners region on Wednesday and by late Wednesday evening will be making its way into southeast Kansas. This will set up for the potential of some strong and even severe thunderstorms Wednesday late afternoon through early Thursday morning from northeast Texas through northern Louisiana and northward through much of Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. The highest likelihood for severe weather will be from the ArklaTex northward into southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri. A slight tornadic risk will exist initially as the severe weather begins but the main threat will quickly transition to damaging winds and hail. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this region of the nation under a "Slight Risk" of severe weather for Wednesday.

Thursday…during the early morning hours an additional severe weather risk area will develop across southern Mississippi/southern Alabama and extreme western Florida and the threat will likely linger into the mid-morning hours. Again, there will be an initial risk for a few tornadoes but the primary threat will be damaging winds and hail. By the afternoon hours, a slowly eastward progressing frontal system may initiate additional strong to severe storms across the Mid-South/TN Valley/Southern Ohio Valley. Again, the primary risk would likely be damaging winds and hail with only isolated tornadoes. At this point, SPC still has some uncertainty regarding the severe weather threat and as a result has decided not to issue a risk area, as of yet. In addition to the potential for some strong to severe storms over portions of the nation on Thursday, a risk for some heavy rainfall is possible along the I-70 corridor from Topeka to Indianapolis and northward to the I-90 corridor from Wisconsin into southeast South Dakota. This means the potential for flooding due to rapid snow melt across portions of the upper Midwest.

Friday…Rains will begin spreading northward through the Mid-Atlantic and into southern New England during the morning hours. A low will also be wrapping itself up across the Southeast and will begin moving to the NE. A wide swath of clouds with showers will exist from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast. Windy and cooler conditions will also begin appearing behind this system across much of the Midwest. Potential heavy rains are possible from the Mid-Atlantic to New York and this could begin leading to rapid snow melt and increasing the flood threat.

Saturday…The slow moving storm system will make its way into the Mid-Atlantic pushing the heavy and prolonged rains into New England. Still following the system will likely be a large cloud shield with scattered rain showers, breezy and cooler conditions.

Sunday…Little change is expected as the storm system spins about moving very little.

Here is one computer forecast for rainfall over the next 7-Days.

A week from now is when the pattern may begin to shake up as a ridge is forecast to build eastward from the western U.S. but that is still a bit of a way out there and as we all know things can change quite easily. I just hope you were able to enjoy the nice weekend many of us experienced because the next 5 to 7 days are not looking very nice unless you are a duck.