Spring & Severe Weather Outlook 2010

The trend of cooler than normal conditions like that we have already seen across much of the nation this winter is expected to continue this Spring, especially for those along and south of I-70. However, the El Nino that has been in place is in a rapid weakening stage and by the time we get to the start of summer we will likely be seeing near neutral conditions again in the equatorial Pacific.

The El Nino has delivered its normal calling card this winter, an active and strong southern jet steam. As the El Nino continues to weaken, there will be a lag in the weakening of the southern jet stream and as a result it will remain active and that will likely lead to above average rainfall from southern California into Texas, along the Gulf Coast and up along the Atlantic Coast.

Through March, I anticipate the northern jet stream to reign king with the southern jet just adding to the pain. That means a cold month with occasional snow. Best chances for seeing more snow will be from the Mid-Atlantic into New England and westward into the Ohio Valley. With regards to severe weather I anticipate March to be relatively quiet.

April will see the southern jet reigning as king as it gives it its last go at it with occasional intrusions of cold air still sinking southward, but much less often than in February and March. This will lead to a relatively wet month for many and that will also mean an enhanced threat for severe weather. In fact, those in the southern U.S. will likely see their stormiest period of the Spring with the most severe weather.

By May, the southern jet stream will finally weaken in response to the weakening El Nino and the more neutral conditions in the Pacific. This will lead a pleasant change for most of us, above normal temperatures. In fact, some of us may look back and wonder what happened to Spring as we go quickly from a winter-like feel to a summerish one. It will also dry out across much of the southern tier of the U.S. where the active southern jet stream had been bringing several wet systems earlier in the Spring. Severe weather will remain a threat but will begin shifting northward into the Heartland.

Overall, I expected fewer days with severe weather this Spring; however, don’t let your guard down. Even though I foresee fewer days with severe weather I anticipate the intensity of the severe weather to be a bit stronger. Meaning the opportunity will exist for more large, severe tornadoes (EF-3 and greater).