We had a surprise snow in the Tennessee Valley this morning. You may ask, "How is that possible to be surprised?" Well, meteorology is still not a perfect science and things don't always go as expected or forecast. I can honestly say, there is nothing that would have forecast 1"-5" of snow across about a 30-40 mile wide swath of northern Alabama in a period of just 2 to 3 hours. When I last worked, Saturday, one model showed the possibility of some very light precipitation starting by early afternoon and I thought to myself, "if that is right maybe a little snow or mix" but I never thought it would be anything of consequence, much more nearly 5" in portions of Lauderdale County. WOW! It was definitely a surprise and a lot of fun. Image Obtained Via NWS-Huntsville
The Tennessee Valley wasn't the only ones surprised. I spoke to a relative in Conway, Arkansas, earlier today and she was also surprised to wake up to snow on the ground. She was expecting just rain eventually turning to snow later in the day and then getting some accumulation. When I talked to her mid-afternoon they already had 6"! I told her she must not have read the blog. She admitted that. Looks like up to 12" is possible there. Just a tad more that I had thought yesterday when I placed Conway into the 6"-10" band.
Now the system continues eastward and where is the snow going? Well, very little change into my thought of yesterday with this storm. Still a wide swath of 6" to 10" of snow from the Eastern Iowa along and north of I-80 through northern Illinois (Yes, Chicago that includes you!) and into Ohio. In fact, from Ohio and most of southern Michigan east-southeastward through Pennsylvania back into northern Virginia, through Maryland northward into southern New England another large covering of 6" to 12" of new snow is expected. This includes DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Long Island and Boston. The bulls-eye appears as if it will be from along I-95 from DC-New York City where another 8" to 16" is likely. I think the most likely area with this storm seeing 16" or even as much as 2' or more will be across New Jersey into Long Island. Also, looks like the wind will really blow with this storm, too, making for a true blizzard set up.
We if that is not enough snow talk for you, how about snow along the I-20 corridor! That is right, I feel pretty confident that snow will be falling and accumulating within 50 miles of I-20 from Texas to Georgia, late week. There is still question on a specific track that a storm system will take but it appears certain a system is coming and it will move out of Texas and across the Gulf of Mexico. If it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico, expect snow to accumulate as far south as a line from Austin-Baton Rouge-Dothan (AL)-Waycross (GA). If it moves closer to the Gulf coast the southern edge of the accumulating snow will be along and near I-20. Now, the energy that will spin up this system is currently of the Oregon/Washington Coast. So it won't be handled very well until upper air data starts capturing it, likely Tuesday evening or early Wednesday. Right now, my confidence is on the higher side of things for snow definitely to impact northern Texas Thursday into Friday. Dallas, you may be looking at a possible 3" to 6" snow with this event; however, we are still several days out and a lot can still change. I encourage you to stay up-to-date with the very latest over the next several days if you live along and south of I-40 from the Texas Panhandle to Raleigh and southward to the Gulf Coast as you all have a chance of seeing accumulating snow with the late week system. I will take another look at this system on Tuesday and provide some further details. Check back!