It’s Time for A Deep South Snow; Exactly Where is Still in Question

An impressive winter storm is aiming for New York City/Long Island/Boston. DC will see another snowy blast, too, but the main focus is around New York City and along Long Island where 1 to 2 feet of snow is possible with very strong winds, too. DC    likely to remain in the 6" to 10" band.

My focus now is looking back to the California Coast where the next storm system in the parade exists, today. This system will come ashore tonight and begin moving across the U.S. Mexico border through the Desert Southwest through Thursday. On Thursday, a surface low will develop near Brownsville, Texas. In addition, abundant moisture will be streaming northward through eastern Texas. On the northern edge, snow will develop. This will include northern Texas (Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex), southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas. The snow will shift eastward on Friday along the I-20 corridor through Louisiana, Mississippi and into Alabama. Still some questions on the exact track of the surface system but models are leaning southward. That means accumulating snow may fall as far south as Mobile-Pensacola! I am not saying that with confidence, though. The upper level energy was not well captured by upper air data since it was still off the California coast during this morning's balloon launches. It may still be off coast some during the 6 PM CT launch but will be captured some by the balloons. Wednesday morning's launch will gather the best initial data with this system and so confidence into the modeling will be higher 24 hours from now.