I-20 Corridor to See Snow; Possible Even to Gulf Coast

Models continue to show the southern track of the forecast low from the southern tip of Texas, across the central Gulf of Mexico and into Florida. The upper air data still only captured about half of the actual upper system this morning so it has not been entirely sampled yet but close. There is some what of a northern tick in this model run versus those of yesterday and I think that will be the case to some extent for the next couple of runs but in general I still think the I-20 corridor is the area under the gun with this snow. That will be from near Dallas through Shreveport to Birmingham and into Georgia.

This storm system will likely produce a wideband of 1” to 3” with a maximum band of 3” to 6”. I’ll take my edge of the 1” line from along the Red River to Greenwood, Mississippi to Athens, Georgia to Columbia, South Carolina on the north and Savannah, Georgia to Dothan, Alabama to Baton Rouge, Louisiana to Huntsville, Texas to Odessa, Texas. The heavy band (3” to 6”) will set up, 35 miles north and south of a line from Hillsboro, Texas to Jackson, Mississippi to Montgomery, Alabama to Columbus, Georgia. The width of this area may increase some in Mississippi and Alabama but I wait on that for another model run or two.

At this point, though, I do think the flakes will fall as far south as Mobile to Tallahassee but I am not anticipating it will accumulate.

Will post a brief update on this again late this evening.