Another complex situation setting up with more snow for some of you in the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic and northward tonight through Tuesday. It will be a one-two punch with a southern stream wave and an Arctic front and wave. The two will be coming together to spread abundant snow cover to much of the US along and north of I-40, again. Those of you in DC, Philly and throughout Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey are you ready for more snow! I hope so because you are going to have snow on snow and it isn't just a few additional inches, either.
Now the way it appears things are going to turn out is that the track of the main surface wave may be a tad further south than what it appeared just a few days ago. At this time, it appears the surface wave will track across Texas on Monday into south-central Louisiana by early Tuesday. It will then turn northeastward and move across northern Alabama through Tuesday morning and then into Ohio. A secondary wave will spin up off the Carolina coast and track northward late Tuesday through Wednesday.
This all sets up the expected widespread snowfall for many. I anticipate two areas of snowfall maximum with this set up. The first will set up with the surface wave moving out of Texas into Louisiana. I anticipate an area of very heavy snowfall across Arkansas, along the I-40 corridor from Waldron, AR-Conway, AR-Jonesboro, AR where 6" to 12" is possible. Little Rock is on the very bitter edge of the Rain/Snow line and could very easily fall into this band, too. Right now I think Little Rock will be in a 3" to 7" inch band of snow. Memphis is also on the bitter edge and right now I am putting them in the 2"-4" band. Just to the north for location into the southern Missouri bootheal east towards Dyersburg, TN will be in my 3" to 6". Further north up to I-7 through Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana and western Kentucky I am disagreeing with the National Weather Service. I believe amounts here will be less than their current thinking. I am only anticipating 2" to 4". Some spots may see only an inch or two. Reason for this minimum is that I think much of the moisture will be robbed to the south and southeast with the surface low.
Further north, along the Arctic front and wave another maximum is expected from the eastern Dakotas through southwest Minnesota into eastern Iowa and across northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and also through southern Wisconsin and Michigan. This area will likely see a wide swath of 6" to 10" with isolated higher amounts. A third maximum will occur from DC to New York where another 4" to 8" of snow will fall Tuesday into Wednesday.LIT 6"-10"
I continue to watch yet another storm system for later in the week that could bring snow to northern Mississippi to northern Georgia on Friday. More on that on Monday.