January Thaw To Set-in This Week

But Don't Get Use To It, COLD Will Set Back In

Busy weather week coming up, just like the way things have been here since the holidays. Glad things are slowing down a bit so I can provide you with the latest updates again. Well, I don't need to tell many of you just how cold it has been since the first of the year as you, like I, have been experiencing it. But really, just how cold has it been? Since the 1^st of January, more than 2,900 winter related records have been tied or broken.

Daily Record	Tied Record	Broken Record
Low Temperature	220	567
Low High Temperature	291	875
Snowfall	103	854

*Data Through January 11

In addition it isn't just how cold it has been recently but how cold it has been since the meteorological winter has started on December 1, 2009. Here is an image showing that an expansive below normal start to this winter has occurred from the Southeast to the northern Rockies.

(Note the Temperatures are in Celcius so the lighter blue shading is about -4F and the darker blue is about -8F)

Now it is time for much of the nation along and east of the Rockies to enjoy a warm-up and a thaw. The temperatures, though, will not be extreme and will generally just rise to or just a little above normal through the next one to two weeks. At the same time the southern jet stream will become active with a vigorous storm system that will develop over northern Mexico, Thursday. It will then track off to the ENE and makes it into northern Florida by Saturday. The northeastward progression will continue through Sunday taking the storm center up along the Atlantic coast to near Norfolk, VA. A more ENE track then is expected early next week taking the main storm into the Atlantic. At this time, it appears most of the precipitation associated with this system will be in the form of "Rain". However, some valleys of the Appalachians may see a little sleet or freezing rain at the onset and further north into the mountains of Pennsylvania into south-central New York some snow will fall.

The next major area of focus will be towards California. So far, being an El Nino year has not brought the usual heavy rains to California. That is about to change. Several storms will move into the Pacific coast next week and they will bring abundant rains to much of the West including California.

Now, looking out into the long range, I strongly feel that even though we will be thawing out the next few weeks winter is going to come back and likely come back with vengeance. One of the years I have leaned on as reference for this winter has been 1958 and it is continues to look like a strong comparison year. Just to give you a heads up, here is how February 1958 ended up.

Also remember, I had February as my coldest month for this winter in the previous winter outlook and that is saying something compared to the start of this winter we have already seen.