Last night, the models were all in pretty good agreement with taking this storm system from north-central Texas up through western Missouri and then into Minnesota which lead me in the direction of providing you the information in the latest post. Things may be on the change again. Not a huge surprise to me, though. As I had previously mentioned until the storm system really moves into the U.S. the upper air data would not be that great and that would influence the model outputs.
This morning's model runs are all further east with the track of the storm system and tend to take the low from Texas to Arkansas into Missouri and then northward. They do have different solutions as to exactly the track they show. The American models are similar and are hinting now that the storm may track almost due north along the Mississippi river to eastern Iowa. Similar solution shown by the long range models about 4 to 5 days ago. This would shift some of the heaviest snow further east from eastern Kansas northward through eastern Nebraska/South Dakota and northwest Missouri, western Iowa and into western Minnesota.
My gut feeling on this storm system is that it will be ejecting from the southwestern U.S. in two pieces. The first to likely shear more north and west from Texas to western Missouri while a second will eject out and spin up a secondary surface wave in eastern Texas/Louisiana and track then north-northeastward. In addition, a surface low may also spin up off the Carolina Coast and move northward into the Mid-Atlantic as the Texas low drags a cold front south and east and cyclogenesis spins up a new low. Looks like it will likely be too warm for snow, though, with this system for the East.
I will take another look at things late this evening and provide any new ideas at that time.
It is appearing more likely that the heaviest snow, in excess of 6" and as much as 2 feet, will be falling Wednesday through Christmas Day from the Panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma to Wisconsin. Some cities that will be affected includes: Denver, Dodge City, Lincoln, Sioux Falls, Minneapolis and Duluth. The most extreme snow in excess of 18" will likely fall across much of southern Minnesota-northwest Iowa-Eastern South Dakota. Bit further south freezing rain will be an issue from southeast Nebraska through central Iowa to northwest Illinois. Please make sure to use extra caution and plan accordingly if you are planning on traveling into these locations Wednesday-Christmas Day.
Continuing further south some heavy rains with embedded thunderstorms will be likely. The heaviest rainfall is likely to fall from Texarkana, TX-Conway, AR-Poplar Bluff, MO-Sparta, IL. In this band as much as 4"-6" of rain is possible. In addition, much of the remainder of Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, western Kentucky, western Tennessee and Mississippi will see between 1"-3" of rainfall from Wednesday through Christmas Day. It is possible, a few severe thunderstorms may occur across Louisiana, Arkansas, eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma Wednesday into Christmas Eve.
Note: This storm system is still organizing and is just now into the Pacific NW so the track of the storm system may still change; however, models are showing more run-to-run consistency and the general track is likely to be close to that mentioned above.
Still watching the likely development of a BIG winter storm from the Southwestern US to the Heartland but details are still sketchy. To explain why I say this, I chose to provide you with another video blog post. I hope it helps clear some fuzziness up. Hopefully, we will begin to hammer details down with more confidence beginning Monday afternoon/evening so make sure you stay up-to-date for the very latest by keeping it tuned right here!
Still a lot of questions for the upcoming holiday week storm but things are becoming a bit clearer. However, I won't be comfortable nailing this one down until the storm moves on shore in the Pacific NW over the next day or two so the models have better initial data to use. I explain the very latest in today's video blog entry. Enjoy!
Many of us each year dream of a white Christmas but we know it is just going to be a dream unless we head to the mountains or someplace else where we know snow will be. This year, though, many of us who normally have to just hold on to a dream of a white Christmas may actually get what we dream for as a present from Mother Nature. As I hinted to last week, the weather pattern setting up for Christmas week appears generally to be cold. Specifics were up in question and still are but things are becoming clearer and it appears that much of the U.S. along and north of I-70 will see below normal temperatures for Christmas week. In addition, the Southeast will be in the cold, at least to start out the week. They will likely warm some towards midweek but things could turn colder again Christmas Day.
Now, how about that snow? Model guidance has been bouncing around on exact track but they have been consistent that past few days in indicating that a major storm system will move out of the Southern Plains, likely next Tue/Wed. It then will likely track eastward through the southern U.S. before turning northeastward Christmas Day. The system will likely tap into Gulf moisture and send it northward over an already existing cold airmass providing the ingredients for widespread snow and ice for the areas bounded by I-40 on the south and I-70 on the north from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Now this can change quite a bit since Christmas is a week away still but this is definitely a system to watch. To help you keep an eye on this system and what to expect I will be posting a daily update now through at least this weekend. So, for those of you from Amarillo-Oklahoma City-Little Rock-St. Louis-Nashville-Louisville your dreams may be coming true. Stay tuned!
A very fast and active weather pattern will continue across the United States for the next week or more. The pattern is definitely setting up as anticipated with El Nino in charge. The southern jet stream is very active with a quick flow across the southern tier of the U.S. This is bringing several quick-moving storm systems from the Pacific Coast through the southern Rockies and into the Southeast. In addition, several surges of cold-arctic airmasses have made it south through the Plains and eastward into the Ohio Valley and portions of New England. This has already set up to the recent major snow that just occurred from the Plains into the Great Lakes. The same storm system also brought very heavy rains to southern California and other locations in the South such as the Tennessee Valley. I had 6.8" of rain in less than 24-hours here at my house in the Huntsville area.
As we head through this upcoming weekend two storm systems will take focus. The first will be spinning up in the western Gulf of Mexico tonight into Friday. This system will bring more abundant rains from eastern Texas to the Florida panhandle through Saturday morning. An additional 1"-3" of rain is possible through 6 AM Saturday, especially from southern Louisiana through southern Mississippi. The heaviest rains will move then eastward through Saturday and into Sunday through southern Alabama and into South Carolina. Some snow will be possible along the spine of the Appalachians from eastern Tennessee/western North Carolina northward into western Maryland by Sunday morning.
The second storm system will be approaching the northern California coast by Friday morning. More widespread rains are likely through California as a result with accumulating snow for the Sierras. The storm system will not move much through Sunday morning so some significant rainfall and snowfall will be possible. Some locations in the Sierras could see as much as another 3 to 4 feet of snow from Friday morning through Sunday morning. Accumulating snow will also spread further east through much of Nevada, Idaho Utah and northern Arizona. Much of California will see rainfall during this same time period reach at least 1 inch and as much as 3 inches. This storm system will then finally move eastward into the southern Rockies by Tuesday morning. This will help spin up yet another western Gulf of Mexico low. At the same time, yet another surge of arctic air will sink through the Plains. The combination of the cold front and the Gulf low will bring another round of heavy rain, possibly strong storms, to the South from Louisiana to east Tennessee, Tuesday. It will also become very windy along and east of the Mississippi river into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Now a look out two weeks towards Christmas. A lot can change from now until then; however, looking at some different parameters it appears that it could be quite cold from the Plains to the Ohio Valley and as far south as the I-40 corridor. What about the chances for a White Christmas? Well, based on the current pattern, I believe there is a higher than normal chance of snow being on the ground Christmas morning from Missouri to Ohio and northward. Also for much of the intermountain west from the high country of California through Nevada, northern Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Colorado. I will fine tune this over the next week and begin to provide potential specifics this time next week.
An upper level storm system will be digging south-southeastward out of Colorado and into eastern Texas during the next 24-hours. You can see the storm system spinning on this water vapor image.
As it digs into New Mexico today snow will continue. Already seeing reports this afternoon across much of northeast New Mexico. However, as the storm slides southward the snow will intensify south of I-40 in southeastern Texas. Snowfall of 2”-4” will be possible mainly east of I-25 from Truth or Consequences to Roswell to Carlsbad and east-southeastward into Texas. A winter weather advisory is in effect for eastern New Mexico southward in extreme western Texas for tonight. Here is a look along US 54 north of El Paso.
This storm system will shift to the east through Texas on Friday and as it moves closer to the Gulf coast will tap into Gulf moisture and help to develop a surface low over the northwest Gulf. As the storm tracks eastward through Texas some light snow may spread further east through central Texas and may impact travel in cities such as Austin and San Antonio. As the low develops off the Gulf Coast it will allow enhancement of the precipitation shield and this will allow rain to begin developing across southeast Texas on Friday morning. At the same time, cold air will continue to sink southward into southeast Texas and Louisiana. This will allow rain to mix with and change over to sleet by late afternoon and then to all snow during the evening hours from Victoria to Houston to Beaumont. Some accumulation of snow and sleet is possible. Right now I would forecast a half to 1”. Higher accumulations are likely further northeast into Louisiana. Here is an image from the Houston area. Click on the image and it will take you to a link with several regional cams for you to view in the region.
The surface low and upper level system will likely to work together to produce the heaviest precipitation from southern Louisiana to central Mississippi. Mix in the cold air and night time darkness and the output points to accumulating snow from Baton Rouge, Louisiana to Jackson, Mississippi, Friday night into early Saturday morning. How much accumulation still remains a bit in question as there are differences still in the models and no real consensus is showing up just quite yet. Accumulation and exact location of it is strongly dependent on the overall strength of the upper system as it spins through and the proximity of the surface low in the Gulf. At this time I am leaning towards a 1” to 3” band of snow from Lake Charles-Baton Rouge-Natchez-Jackson. Here is a look from Baton Rouge.
As Friday night continues, the moisture stream to continue east-northeastward. However, the main surface low will track across the north-central Gulf into the northern Florida peninsula as it turns to the northeast. A bit of a lull in the snow may occur across northeast Mississippi through northern Alabama as the main surge of moisture tracks eastward with the surface wave. A few snow showers/flurries will be possible, though, as direct response to the upper level system. If the surface low would track further to the north then this system may become more of an issue for northern Alabama.
The upper level system and surface low will unite and work together again delivering more accumulating snow along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians from North Carolina into southwest Virginia and then northeastward towards the Washington D.C. metro area on Saturday into early Sunday. As mentioned earlier, track of the systems makes a big difference on who sees snow and who doesn’t. Stay tuned for further updates or follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/dopplerdalwx
Little change into earlier thinking from today. Will go with a 1"-2" band of snow with possibly some sleet mixed in initially from the Ozarks northeastward into central IL and into southern Michigan. Cities included in this band would include Jefferson City, MO; Quincy, IL, Peoria, IL, Kankakee, IL and Ironton, MO. A couple of areas may see up to 4" in a few spots, especially in central IL into SW Michigan.
Two Storm Punch Could Bring Season's First Snow from the Ozarks to Mid-Mississippi Valley to Michigan
A one two punch storm system is organizing across SE New Mexico and will be tracking eastward over the next 24 hours. In addition, a second storm system will be dropping south through the Northern Plains. These two systems will be phasing, or coming together, on Wednesday and a powerful low pressure system will track from the southeast Texas coast to near Louisville, Kentucky by Wednesday evening. A sharp shot of cold air will sink rapidly southward behind this moisture rich system and likely rainfall will be changed over to accumulating snow.
Still many questions on the exact path this storm will be taking and how much wrap around moisture will accompany the system from Missouri through Illinois and into Michigan. Models are showing similar solutions but not exactly and I still have some doubt. Would like to see this evening's model runs after the next upper-air balloon launch at 6 PM CT to nail this forecast down. However, you are not wanting to hear that so here is my initial thinking and again, by 11 PM CT tonight, I will post another forecast that will nail things down a bit more.
I am anticipating an area of accumulating snow to fall from the Ozarks into central Illinois and then continuing into southern Lower Michigan. In general, the snowfall accumulation will be in the range of 1"-3"; however, I would not be surprised to see a band of 3"-5" across the northeastern Ozarks and again across central Illinois.
A limiting factor to the snowfall accumulation will be the rapid speed of the system and the relatively warm ground. Soil temperatures are generally 40-46 degrees through Missouri and Illinois. Also, pavement temperatures are in the 50s, too.
