A vigorous storm system moving through the center of the nation has delivered feet of snow to Colorado including the Denver metro area and is also delivering strong to severe storms across portions of SE Oklahoma/NE Texas/Western AR/Western LA. As of 2 PM CT, 3 tornado watches were in effect. The entire storm system will be moving eastward through Friday. Storms will likely continue through the overnight hours. Currently, much of the storm activity is broken but as the overnight wears on, I anticipate a squall line, or line of storms, to come together from Arkansas southward into extreme eastern Texas. This will mean the main threat with these storms will become mainly straight-line gusty winds with only a few isolated tornadoes on the "book-ends" of any bows that occur. The image below depicts this occurrence. In picture "D" the book-end vortexes are occurring at "a" and "c". Notice how the wind flow is circulating in these locations. Typical tornadoes that form in these circumstances are usually no stronger the EF-1 but that can still produce some structural damage, especially to modular homes. The squall line will propagate slowly eastward and may weaken some during Friday morning. Regeneration is possible later during the afternoon hours across Mississippi and moving into portions of western Alabama. All who live in Arkansas, eastern Texas, Louisiana, western Tennessee, Mississippi and extreme western AL need to stay weather aware and keep your eyes to the sky for the potential of severe weather. I have also completed a separate post today looking at the Halloween evening forecast for all those "Trick or Treat" plans. What will the weather be for where you live, a Trick or a Treat? Find out here.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Severe Weather Potential on Friday
Halloween Forecast, A Trick or A Treat
Halloween is upon us and many of the Little Punkins will be seeking the treasure of candy and goods Saturday evening. But will they be able to do so with just their costume and bag at hand or will they need coat/jacket and or rain gear? Unfortunately, for those of you in the extreme eastern U.S. it looks wet with scattered rain showers. From Virginia southward, it will be mild with temperatures in the 60s and 70s while 50s will be found further north. Chilly 40s and 50s will be found across much of the center of the nation but it will likely be dry. Further north, it will be cold with 30s likely across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some rain/snow will be likely across much of North Dakota. Another area of rain showers will be found across much of the northwest U.S. Temperatures here will also be chilly with 40s and 50s. Across the Rockies, it will be chilly with 30s and 40s and plenty of snow will be on the ground but the good news will be that no more will be falling. Nice mild 60s and 70s will be found across the southwestern U.S. into southern California.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Major Early Season Winter Storm Brings Snow & Severe Storms
A powerful early winter season storm is spinning up across the 4-corners with a surface low across southeast Colorado. The surface system will gradually lift north-northeastward through Saturday while the upper level support will be slowly track eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. What does this mean? First, as the surface low moves through the Plains, some heavy rains will be possible from Texas to the eastern Dakotas. Some of the heavy rains from southeastern Kansas into Texas will be associated with some very strong storms. Some of these will be severe in nature. The threat will exist for much of Thursday and gradually shift eastward into the Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk issued for these areas with a large 30% likelihood hatched area within the Slight Risk. I would not be surprised to see a Moderate Risk area included before it is said and done, probably from northeast Texas into Louisiana. What risks are included with this severe weather? Well, this scenario will likely produce storms that can produce not only large hail and strong gusty winds but also a few tornadoes. Further to the north from Colorado to the western Dakotas, some very heavy snow is likely. Already, heavy snow is falling across much of Colorado. Snow is not only occurring across the high country but also along the I-25 corridor from Colorado Springs through Denver, Ft. Collins and into Wyoming. This will be shifting gradually northeastward through Thursday and Friday. Winter Storm warnings are in effect for most of Colorado, southeast Wyoming, extreme northern New Mexico, the panhandle of Nebraska, and western South Dakota, including Rapid City and the Black Hills. Winter Storm Watches are in effect into North Dakota. How much snow may fall? Many within the Winter Storm Warning affected area will see 8" to 16". By Friday, the Severe Weather threat will begin shifting eastward towards the Mid-South. New guidance is suggesting the system may really slow down on the south end and it may take until Saturday for the storms to propagate into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. To help be safe from the possible severe weather threat, I strongly encourage you to consider signing up for Weather Call. Weather Call costs just $6.95 per year and is the most advanced severe weather alerting system available at this time. It will contact you by up to three methods, Phone, Email, Text Message, to provide you with any severe t-storm or tornado warnings issued for your designated location. How does Weather Call differ from NOAA Weather Radio? When you receive a warning via NOAA Weather Radio it is for an entire county. With Weather Call, you register a location to be notified for such as your home, office or school. Whenever a warning is issued that is specifically for your location, you will be notified. It is possible to alert this way now since the National Weather Service changed their warning notifications from county based to storm cell based. You can learn more about Weather Call and signup by clicking here.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Fall Harvests Way Behind Schedule: Crop Prices May Be Affected
Crops such as Corn, Cotton and Soybeans Affected If it has seemed like it has been raining unusually often and by quite a bit, you are right. The months during harvest time (August/September/October) are traditionally the driest of year for most locations east of the Rockies, especially across the corn and cotton belts. This season, though, has been an exception. Here is a slide show that shows how the precipitation of these months has compared to normal. Since October is not over, yet, you have to review the weekly maps. Notice, August was the record wettest for Michigan; September was the record wettest for several states: Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Now it isn't just how much rain that has been an issue but the frequency at which it has occurred. Here is a table the list a few key locations and the number of days since August 1st that precipitation has occurred. Location # Rain Days % Available Time has Been Wet Atlanta, GA 39 44% Huntsville, AL 39 44% Memphis, TN 40 45% Little Rock, AR 33 38% St. Louis, MO 37 42% Springfield, IL 36 41% Des Moines, IA 39 44% Indianapolis, IN 36 41% Columbus, OH 41 47% Madison, WI 34 39% Minneapolis, MN 32 37% Sioux Fall, SD 41 47% Omaha, NE 33 38% Raleigh, NC 40 45% Monroe, LA 37 42% Dallas, TX 32 37% Most of this has occurred during the months of September and October, peak harvesting time. These numbers show that on average it is precipitating nearly every 2 to 3 days and that is keeping the farm fields just too wet to harvest. This is keeping farmers from getting to their crops. Now you may be thinking to yourself, "Oh well, when it dries out they will get them." But you must consider that the longer the crop lies wait to being harvested, the condition of the crop can deteriorate and in some case significantly. For corn to be harvested, it must contain only about 15% to 18% moisture. In many of the Corn Belt states the moisture remains well above 25%. This can lead to the kernels beginning to rot if this condition lasts to long. Corn usually dries at a rate of ½% to 1% per day in the field. That would mean, at best, it could take another 1 to 2 weeks, with no additional precipitation, to allow the corn to dry enough now for harvest. Cotton is also suffering. In some cases the cotton is hardening inside the boll. This will lead to the cotton breaking when it is harvested. It is also not drying out enough, like the corn, to be able to harvest. In addition, all of the recent rainfall has in some cases caused new growth to begin sprouting. This can cause damage to harvesting equipment. In addition to corn and cotton, soybeans are also behind schedule. Like corn, there is a threshold mark for farmers to aim for in moisture content for harvest. For soybeans it is 13.5%. The University of Arkansas agriculture website states that harvesting during a wet season can be quite costly to farmers. This is due to the fact that wear and repair expenses increase in muddy fields. Additionally, a delayed harvest can result in high field shatter loss. So how are farmers doing regarding their harvest to date? The following tables outline where the harvest status currently stands, as of October 25, and how it compares to last year and the 5-year average. In addition, I have provided how the crop condition is by providing you with the combined percentage of good and excellent and its comparison to last year. Corn State % Harvested 5-YR AVG Good/ Excellent Condition 2008 Condition SD 15% 38% 80% 78% MN 5% 48% 70% 70% WI 8% 35% 60% 57% NE 18% 45% 80% 77% IA 13% 45% 76% 65% MO 40% 80% 63% 50% IL 15% 80% 60% 70% IN 20% 63% 63% 59% OH 20% 40% 73% 38% KS 45% 80% 65% 60% TX 85% 90% 38% 41% KY 70% 90% 90% 55% TN 80% 100% 80% 50% NC 95% 100% 55% 20% Soy Beans State % Harvested 5-YR AVG Good/ Excellent Condition 2008 Condition SD 40% 80% 70% 65% MN 43% 95% 62% 58% WI 25% 75% 60% 45% NE 60% 85% 80% 70% IA 45% 90% 72% 61% MO 25% 60% 63% 48% IL 35% 85% 55% 75% IN 55% 80% 60% 50% OH 75% 75% 70% 30% KS 50% 65% 78% 70% AR 40% 70% 40% 55% LA 75% 95% 35% 20% MS 60% 95% 25% 50% KY 35% 60% 90% 50% TN 35% 60% 80% 50% NC 20% 15% 65% 55% Cotton State % Harvested 5-YR AVG Good/ Excellent Condition 2008 Condition TX 20% 28% 40% 40% AL 20% 50% 40% 50% TN 8% 65% 50% 60% NC 20% 45% 70% 55% SC 30% 40% 50% 40% GA 15% 40% 50% 40% MS 10% 80% 15% 55% LA 25% 90% 20% 10% OK 10% 25% 70% 40% KS 0% 10% 42% 55% MO 15% 70% 57% 65% AR 15% 75% 33% 58%
Thursday, October 22, 2009
What Will November’s Weather Be Like?
Where may there be snow for Thanksgiving? Signs are showing that November will be turning warmer than normal, at least for the first half of so of the month for the Eastern U.S. with the opposite being true for the West. However, the first few days of the month may start out cool as a storm system will cross through the East last next week allowing a brief trough to set up over the East. But it will be brief, as a ridge will quickly return. This will also set up the potential for one or two more late season tropical systems. Watch near the Florida coast into the Gulf of Mexico the next week or two. The pattern I see setting up for November will likely allow for some early season snow for much of the Rockies, especially in Colorado. This means a Thanksgiving ski-get-away may be very likely for many. Looking beyond November, things are still looking on track from earlier thoughts for the Winter 2009-10. Still expecting a cooler than normal winter for the Southern & Southeastern U.S. with an increased threat for snow/ice in these region and up through the Mid-Atlantic.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Great Viewing For Many of the Orionid Meteor Shower
This week Earth will be passing through a debris field left behind by Halley's Comet, the Orionids. Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office says, "Flakes of comet dust hitting the atmosphere should give us dozens of meteors per hour. Since 2006, Orionids have been one of the showers of the year, with counts of 60 or more meteors per hour." The Orionids are an annual event that occur in October, normally beginning around the 15th and ending around the 29th. Peak viewing will occur this year a few hours before sunrise, generally between 3am-6am, on Wednesday, the 21st. Viewing should be GREAT for many as clear skies will be the rule for most of the nation along and south of I-40 and east of I-35, the southeastern U.S. In addition, the moon phase is just returning from " How to view Viewing is simple, all you have to do is look up toward Orion and that is it. No telescope required. Where is Orion? Here is an image to provide you some reference. This is about 1:00 AM local time; so note, this is not during peak viewing hours and your will have to reacquaint yourself. The red line on the image represents the horizon. Under normal viewing, you will likely see 10 to 20 meteors per hour; however, the last few years have been a bit more than that and it is possible this year will be the same. Happy viewing! (Image from meteorshoweronline.com; additional information used for this post obtained from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center)
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