Severe Weather Possible for the Ozarks into the Mid & Lower Mississippi Valleys on Thursday

The weather so far this week has been relatively pleasant for most of us along and east of the Rockies and it looks like a terrific weekend is setting up, too, for some. The next in a series of Fall storm systems will be moving out of the Plains and into the center of the nation tonight through Thursday. This will aid in firing some storms, some strong to severe, from the Ozarks and continuing eastward to the Mississippi River and south to the I-20 corridor on Thursday. The main threat appears to be strong gusty winds. This should be a reminder that we are now heading well into the second severe weather season of the year. This season tends to normally not be as active as the Spring season but can be just as dangerous. As a result, it is a good idea to again review your severe weather plans. I strongly recommend that those plans include either a NOAA weather radio or Weather Call so you can stay up-to-date with the very latest severe weather warnings. If you are not familiar with Weather Call I encourage you to click on the link and learn more. In my opinion, it is the best personal warning service available. It will notify you based on the specific warning coordinates and not simply by the county for which you live. The service is available for any location in the lower 48!

After this front passes through the center of the nation on Thursday, it will continue to head east through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the East Coast on Friday. The atmosphere doesn't appear as primed over these regions for Friday as it does over the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. So severe weather is not expected; however, an isolated severe storm cannot be completely ruled out.

An area of low pressure will become stationary over the Great Lakes for the weekend and unfortunately that means cool, cloudy and showery weather is likely along and north of I-70 and east of the Mississippi River; for this weekend. Further south and west, though, it will be quite pleasant and very nice.

Unfortunately, where the fall color is peaking in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes and continuing into New England, this weekend isn't looking that Grand. However, if you live in the Rockies this weekend is looking nice for stroll or hike to see the season's beauty.

Tranquil Weather Week for Most in the East

Not a lot to say regarding the weather. It remains quiet in the tropics but don't put your guard down just yet. We may have one last tropical push late in the season, late October into November, as some signs hint at this. I will keep an eye on things and hopefully all stays quiet.

Here in the U.S., this week looks nice and quiet for most with cool days and a few chilly nights but during the day lots of sunshine. It may become more active late week as another reinforcing cold front will move through the Plains late and will cross the MS River Thu/Fri. It will bring showers and thunderstorms with it. We may have to watch out for severe weather for portions of the Heartland Thursday. This threat is still several days out to pinpoint specifics but something to watch. Then behind it, reinforcing cool Fall air for next weekend.

Change Is Coming to the Heartland/Southeast, But First Possibly More Flooding.

A one, two punch is on its WAAY to the Heartland of the nation. A system that has been cut-off from the main flow over the Plains and central Rockies will finally get bumped and move eastward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through this weekend. This will allow a cold front to progress eastward. The main weather feature associated with this front will be another round of rains, some heavy, from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, mainly on Saturday. This will add to already wet grounds and could enhance flooding or at least allow more flash flooding. Behind the front, slightly cooler but definitely much less humid air is expected.

Quickly behind the above mentioned front will be a second, stronger front that will aid in bringing a real change from the Upper Midwest to the Southeast. Much cooler air with breezy conditions will be found for a few days. By Tuesday, the coolest air will be found Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, where temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees below normal for afternoon highs. That will follow morning minimums in the 30s for portions of North Dakota/Minnesota/Wisconsin.

Wednesday, most of the nation along and east of the Mississippi River and along and north of the Tennessee River will see cool, below normal temperatures in the range of 5 to 8 degrees. Morning minimum temperatures will drop into the 40s from Tennessee northward with 30s possible across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the 70s from I-20 northward with 60s from the Ohio River northward and 50s in the Great Lakes into New England.

This cooler air, with the shortening days, will aid in speeding up the change in colors, too, of the leaves across much of the Eastern U.S. Color is already nearing peak across much of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and even into portions of New England. In addition, color is rapidly coming out in the Rockies. I would love to share some of the brilliance of the season with everyone but I need your help. If you have pictures of the Fall colors in your area and would like to share please email (dopplerdale@dopplerdale.com) your pictures to me with your location and name (if you want) included.

Big Spring Jam Weather Looking Unsettled

It has been unsettled across the Tennessee Valley for more than a week and it finally looks like the light may be at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that it will arrive in time to provide GREAT weather for a majority of Big Spring Jam scheduled for this Friday, Saturday and Sunday evenings in Big Spring International Park in Huntsville, Alabama. A cold front will be approaching the Valley but it will be slow and likely will not clear through until late Saturday. As a result, Friday and Saturday will likely remain unsettled with increasing rain chances. The highest rain chance arrives with the arrival of the cold front on Saturday. Depending on the exact time of the fronts arrival, there is the chance the Valley could experience some SEVERE STORMS. If you are planning on attending the Jam, I strongly encourage you to remain weather aware and tuned to WAAY 31 for the very latest. Also, make sure to stop by the WAAY 31 booth and say, "hello" as I will be there each of the three days, severe weather pending, of course.

A Detailed Look

Friday:

4 PM – Few Scattered Showers (30%), Warm & Muggy. Temperature: 88 Wind SW-5

7 PM – Few Scattered Showers (30%) Temperature: 82 Wind Light

10 PM – Few Isolated Showers (20%) Temperatures: 75 Wind Light

Saturday:

4 PM – Strong, possibly SEVERE T-storms (70%). Temperature: 85 Wind SE-W 5-10 (Gusty in Storms)

7 PM – Few Lingering Storms (50%) Temperature: 74 Wind W 5-10

10 PM – Few Scattered Showers (20%) Temperatures: 70 Wind WNW 5-10

Sunday:

4 PM – Partly Cloudy & Much Less Humid. Temperature: 83 Wind WNW 5-10

7 PM – Clearing Skies: 75 Wind WNW 5

10 PM – Becoming Mostly Clear Temperatures: 70 Wind WNW 5

Season’s First Snow

The snow is flying across the portions of the Colorado Rockies above 6,500 feet. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Snowfall 6"-18" is possible into Wednesday with some blowing and drifting, too, especially over the Palmer Divide. Snowfall, as of noon CT Tuesday, has been relatively light with the highest report being 5" in Stonewall, CO. The storm that is bringing this snow will intensify overnight into Wednesday morning and heavier snow is expected. Here is a live look at I-70 at Vail Pass where snow has already fallen and more is forecast.

And here is a loook at Copper Mountain Ski Resort

Autumn Begins Tuesday & Right on Queue the Season’s First Autumn Cold Front

The weather pattern over the eastern U.S. the past week has been dominated by a cut-off low pressure system that has brought torrential rains to some in the South and Southeast. That system has now been lifted northward and has weekend and a second system is becoming the new player on the field. This system will also cut-off from the main upper-level flow over the Plains through much of this week. Behind and underneath this system can be found the season's first true Autumn air. For example, on Tuesday, much of the Plains and Southern Rockies will see afternoon temperatures that will be 10-20 degrees below normal! Some of you in the Southern Rockies will see morning low temps in the 20s!

The system will slowly move east through Friday and then it will be picked up by the main flow and drag a trough across much of the Eastern U.S. The air will modify, though, and just bring about seasonal temperatures. But this will set up the ability for additional fronts to drop southeastward out of western Canada next week and behind these fronts will be found some cool, Autumn air.

Now with the start of Autumn begins our look at the Fall Colors. Where are the tree's changing? Well, parts of New England are starting to see some color, mainly from western Maine into northeast New York. Some color is also being seen in Wisconsin, Michigan and Colorado. In fact, the Aspens should quickly shine "golden" during the next week or so.

Unsettled is the Word for the Next Week Texas-Georgia

A large upper level low pressure system is spinning across the ArkLaTex and will likely continue to do so until late this week and possibly into the beginning of next. This keeps things very unsettled with waves of rain from northeast Texas to Georgia. Some of the waves will contain some heavy rainfall. The heaviest rainfall amounts will be over Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and northern Louisiana. Some locations in these areas could see an additional 2"-5" over the next 3-days.

Once this system decides to finally lift to the north and east late this week into early next, it will help to create an overall pattern change across the Eastern U.S. with a broad trough taking shape. This means a shot of true Autumn air will spread across much of the nation from the Plains to the Atlantic for the week of the 21^st. Exact timing of the cool air arriving is still a bit in question as exact timing of when the above mentioned low will lift northeastward is unknown.

A Closer Look At the Fall/Winter Outlook

First, sorry for the delay in this post. What a couple of weeks I have had and that has kept me away from the computer and being able to complete things I promised. The last post showed graphically my Fall and Winter Outlook. Today, I provide you with some specifics for a few key cities in the eastern half of the U.S.

Boston    

Month	Departure From Normal Temperature	Departure From Normal Precipitation	Snowfall
September	-1.3	-1.1"	0.0"
October	+0.8	-0.9"	0.0"
November	+0.5	+1.8"	Trace
December	+1.3	+1.5"	5.8"
January	+1.0	+3.6"	10.4"
February	-3.9	+1.8"	20.8"

 

Washington DC

Month	Departure From Normal Temperature	Departure From Normal Precipitation	Snowfall
September	-0.5	-0.2"	0.0"
October	+1.1	-1.1"	0.0"
November	0.0	-0.6"	Trace
December	-0.3	+1.5"	8.8"
January	-0.6	-0.4"	2.9"
February	-3.8	-0.7"	11.9"

 

Chicago

Month	Departure From Normal Temperature	Departure From Normal Precipitation	Snowfall
September	+1.3	+0.8"	0.0"
October	+0.9	+2.1"	0.0"
November	-0.9	+0.4"	5.6"
December	+1.8	-0.6"	11.0"
January	+2.7	-0.6"	9.6"
February	-3.3	+0.2"	2.8"

 

St. Louis

Month	Departure From Normal Temperature	Departure From Normal Precipitation	Snowfall
September	-1.5	-0.3"	0.0"
October	-1.7	-0.4"	0.0"
November	-1.7	-1.7"	1.0"
December	+0.8	+1.7"	1.9"
January	-2.0	-1.9"	11.5"
February	-5.0	-1.2"	2.7"

 

Huntsville, AL

Month	Departure From Normal Temperature	Departure From Normal Precipitation	Snowfall
September	-0.3	-0.3"	0.0"
October	+1.8	-0.4"	0.0"
November	-1.0	-1.7"	Trace
December	+0.2	-0.2"	2.9"
January	-1.8	-1.9"	0.3"
February	-7.2	-1.2"	4.9"

2009 Fall Forecast and 2009-10 Initial Winter Outlook

As promised, today's post provides you with the official Doppler Dale 2009 Fall Forecast and a look at the preliminary 2009-10 Winter Forecast. Unfortunately, due to the passing of my grandfather this weekend, I have not been able to complete all the specific details that I would have liked to have included in today's post. But, now that the hectic portion of things are now over, I will work on the individual specifics and I will provide them in a follow-up post that will be provided just as soon as I have everything completed, probably by the end of the week.

In general, we are going to be seeing a "Cool-phase" El Nino this Autumn and Winter. This will allow for "Near Normal" temperatures for much of the U.S. this autumn with the real exception being over the Lone Star State where unfortunately it will stay hot as it has all summer long.

In addition, it appears the dry, drought-like conditions will continue, too, for Texas. A wetter than normal fall is expected for portions of the Northwest and Florida.

For this upcoming winter, there is a higher chance than normal that much of the U.S. east of the Mississippi River will see below normal temperatures.

Snowfall is also likely to be at or above normal for much of the East. However, the highest chances of seeing above normal snowfall will be from northeast Texas to the Mid-Atlantic.

As mentioned above, I will break down so key specifics for certain locations such as Minneapolis, Chicago, St. Louis, Huntsville, Washington DC and Boston in the next few days. To be notified as to when this blog is updated simply become a blog follower or follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/dopplerdalewx.