A Taste of Autumn in Late August

Last weekend a nice cool shot sank southward out of Canada and encompassed much of the eastern half of the nation. Looks like another and likely stronger surge of early autumn air will sink through the Eastern U.S. through much of the next 7-days. Much of the nation along and east of the Mississippi River will see afternoon highs only in the 70s and even some 60s near the Canadian border. This will mean afternoon highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Some nice and cool mornings will help to start out these cool days. A few mornings may even see lows in the upper 30s in parts of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Overall, minimum temperatures will generally be about 10 degrees below normal for much of the next week.

This cool down will definitely get you into the mood for football season and get you thinking about autumn as a whole. If you are interested in learning what to expect for this autumn and a sneak peek into winter 2009, make sure you check back next Tuesday for the Doppler Dale 2009 Fall Outlook and a the Preliminary 2009-10 Winter Outlook.

T. S. Danny Likely to Brush Outerbanks & New England & Could “Erika” Be Arriving Soon

As of 10 AM CT, T.S. Danny was located about 320 miles northeast of Nassau and had max winds near 60 mph. Danny is not moving consistently to the northwest but that is the overall general direction of movement at about 13 mph. A general northwest motion is likely for the next 24-hours and then a more northerly turn is anticipated with an increase in forward speed. Even though the official intensity was increased to near 60 mph earlier this morning, looking at satellite imagery and data would not support this. In addition, Danny still looks disorganized with the center of circulation outrunning the main convection which is found to the east-northeast. Modeling data still tries to organize the system better and some even try to bring Danny to hurricane strength and so does the official NHC forecast. I think it is possible that Danny may briefly become a very minimal hurricane on Saturday as it approaches southeastern New England but I am not completely convinced. Either way, for the second weekend in a row, heavy surf is likely from the Southeastern U.S. Coast to New England. The worst will likely occur from Long Island to Maine and the strongest winds to affect the U.S. will likely occur late Saturday across southeastern Massachusetts.

I will continue to monitor Danny and the aircraft recon reports this afternoon and evening and if you would like to stay up-to-date with the very latest simply follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/dopplerdalewx

Now, Danny is not the only concern in the Atlantic. Another healthy tropical wave has moved off the west coast of Africa over the past couple of days and is now located about 350 mi SSW of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has a high chance of becoming "Erika" by being classified as a tropical storm in the next 1 to 2 days. The modeling data then allow the system to consistently, gradually strengthen and the system may become a hurricane by the end of the week. By the middle of next week, the system, likely a hurricane, will be approaching the northern Leeward Islands. Based on the overall weather pattern and trend, it will likely track in similar manner as to that of Bill and Danny and be of concern for the East Coast during the Labor Day weekend. Could very likely be three weekends in a row of high surf and dangerous waters for many.

Lastly, if you are looking for an early taste of Fall, you won't have to look too far. Learn more by reading the next post or simply click here.

Danny is Born, Where Will He Go?

Tropical Storm Danny officially was named this morning and the first advisory had it will sustained winds of 45 MPH and it was moving off to the NW at 18 mph. Most of the modeling data keeps Danny just off the Carolina Coast by Fri evening into Saturday then rocket Danny off to the NNE through the weekend. A few models, though, do take Danny right along the coast and make U.S landfall. In a few cases, a couple different times. The areas that need to stay the most aware are the Carolina Outer Banks, northward through the DELMARVA and over to Massachusetts. Stay up to date for the very latest by following me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/dopplerdalewx

Next Named System, “Danny” Likely

I have been watching a wave move towards and now past the Leeward Islands since late last week and now it is showing signs of better organization as it moves by to the north of Puerto Rico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is sending a recon flight to investigate the system further, this afternoon. I anticipate that after they have investigate the system the NHC will at minimum categorize the system as a Tropical Depression and may even be able to name the system as the next Atlantic named tropical cyclone, Danny.

The system will be moving into a favorable environment for further development and enhancement over the next 24-hours, for sure. This means that it very likely that it will be a tropical storm as it moves through the eastern Bahamas on a Northwestward course. Additional development is then still possible through the end of the week and the system may near hurricane strength by late Friday. At that time, the system would likely be bearing down on the Carolina Outerbanks. Here is a look at the tropical models' forecast intensity plots.

Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic click here.

Many of the tropical models tend to track the system northwest and then north and east and keep it away from the U.S. coast but the short term and medium range models most often used for general forecasting disagree. These include the American NAM & GFS models, European Model and the Canadian Model. They all bring the system into the Outerbanks by Friday evening and then track the system northward through the Mid-Atlantic and into New England through Saturday. Here is a look at a composite, spaghetti plot, of the hurricane models and then the short/medium range models in the below slide show.

Spaghetti Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic click here. Forecast models courtesy of the Penn State E-Wall Site.

Stay up-to-date on the latest with this system by following me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/dopplerdalewx.

Remnants of Ana Likely Not a Threat; Bill Continues to Churn

Bill To Tease New England, Remnants of Ana to be Watched

I am not in the studio today so no video update and I do not have access into looking at the WAAY 31 BAMS model but I still wanted to keep you up-to-date and provide my thoughts on the happenings in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Bill is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with winds 105 MPH, gusts to 127 MPH, as of 10 AM CT Tuesday. It will likely be a category 3 hurricane, which would make it a major hurricane, by Wednesday morning. Air Force Hurricane Hunters are going to be doing recon flights around and through Bill this afternoon. A look at Bill on satellite shows a well defined eye.

A look at the modeling data this morning indicates that Bill will likely be a category 3 hurricane for several days and may even briefly peak as a category 4. The forecast tracks take Bill to the WNW through Friday keeping it to the north of the Leeward Islands. Here is a look at the GFDL model from Weather Underground.

A turn more northerly is then forecast through the weekend and then eventually to the northeast. This track keeps Bill east of the U.S. East Coast and then just south and east of New England. Those living in New England and the Canadian Maritimes should keep a close eye on this system as any shift westward could but these locations within the path of Bill early next week.

Ana is officially no longer being tracked as a depression and is just a large mass of showers and thunderstorms from the Bahamas to Jamaica. Even though it is now longer categorized as a depression and doesn't currently show signs of regeneration, I still would be cautious with this as it may try to follow Claudette's lead and quickly spin up into a Tropical Storm from basically nothing. I am thinking there is a possibility that a very similar situation could occur Thursday into Friday in the Gulf of Mexico. If things come together as I think they may. A tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm will move towards the Alabama/Florida coastline and follow a similar track as Claudette. If you live along the Gulf Coast you need to keep weather aware.

Don't forget you can stay up-to-date on the latest by following me on twitter at www.twitter.com/dopplerdalewx

Monday's Tropical Weather Update

Claudette to Move NNW, Bill and Ana Stay'n Alive

From Zero to Two in Just One Day

Latest Video Tropical Update

Update on The Tropics, Gulf Coast Be Aware

Update on the Happenings in the Atlantic

The Atlantic is wakening up for a while, likely for the next couple of weeks. There are three main areas of concern that I am watching for possible development into tropical systems.

First, we have tropical depression 2 which on satellite appears it could already be a tropical storm. Here is a look at some of that satellite analysis estimates on the strength of the current depression. A couple of the satellites are estimating that winds could be as strong as 55 knots and for a system to become a tropical storm it needs winds of 35 knots.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory as of 11 AM AST indicated their belief of the system having winds of about 30 knots. It is likely that it is somewhere in between around 40 to 45 knots.

The system is still battling dry air on its WNW side but appears much better organized today then compared to yesterday. Below is the water vapor image and the oranges and reds indicate the dry air west of the system shown in green due to the high moisture content wthin the system.

In addition to the dry air on its west side it is encountering some wind shear, too. These two items put together will likely keep the system from intensifying too quickly and in general, I believe the system will like be a tropical storm with winds between 45 and 60 knots for the next couple of days. For the latest updates on this system please look to the right and refer to the "Doppler Dale's Weather News" RSS section.

The official track of the system from NHC matches well with the overall consensus of the modeling data. They all indicate a westward movement of the system for the next couple of days then more of a turn to the West-Northwest.

The next area to continue to watch is a tropical wave west of the Leeward Islands. Today's satellite doesn't look like much but this system will continue to track to the west through the end of the week and will likely end up in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. When it arrives into the Gulf it will arrive into a favorable environment for development and it could develop into a tropical system that could affect the Gulf Coast of the U.S. early next week.

Lastly, the "BIG TICKET" item. A second wave moved off the west coast of Africa, yesterday. It is following behind tropical depression 2. This system will likely be the main item of concern over the next two weeks. It may form into a tropical storm within the next two days and then into a hurricane by the end of the weekend. Some model guidance indicates this system could become a very strong storm as it moves to the west towards the Caribbean. It is too far out to say where exactly it may track but please refer to yesterday's post, "Finally Some Tropical Fun in the Atlantic," to learn the climatologically tracks for storms that form during this time of year in this region. Based on climatology and current modeling data, if I lived along the eastern U.S. coast I would monitor this storm closely.

Make sure to become a follower of this site for the latest posts. To become a follower simply click here. You can also follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/dopplerdalewx.

Finally Some Tropical Fun in the Atlantic

The Atlantic Tropical region is starting to heat up with activity and we will likely see our first tropical named system of the year in the Atlantic Basin, possibly as early as later tonight. Tropical Depression 2 is located near 31W Longitude and 15 N Latitude or about 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, this Tuesday afternoon. TD is moving to the west around 13 MPH and the general track over the next day or two will be to the West to West-Northwest. As of 10 AM, maximum sustained winds were around 30 MPH and the estimated pressure was 29.71" or 1006 MB. Here is the latest satellite image:

Now let's take a look at the water vapor image as of 2:30 PM CT

Not the dry air indicated but the reddish hue to the west of the storm. The TD has to move into this dry air and I strongly feel this will keep the system from strengthening much over the next day or two. In addition, it will not be crossing waters that are that warm and are marginal. Even with these obstacles, the current track and forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the tropical depression strengthening into the season's first tropical storm Wednesday morning. If this would happen it would become Tropical Storm "Ana".

Overall, I agree with the general forecast track and so does the modeling data. Here is an image showing Tuesday morning's model runs in a spaghetti plot.

Now a few of the models do agree with the NHC thought of intensification into a tropical storm on Wednesday morning. While the majority tend to hold off the intensification into a tropical storm until at least Thursday. One even keeps the system only a depression. Now know matter what does occur the next couple of days with this system the only interests that will have to be concerned will be shipping interests. I also don't believe this storm will become a hurricane during at least the next 5-days.

Now this is not the only system to watch in the Atlantic. One system is not even mentioned on the tropical weather outlook and that is because it is not in the Atlantic, currently. What I am watching is the storm system that will be entering into the Mid-South tonight and slowly meander into the Southeast through the end of the week. An area of low pressure may become organized off the Southeastern Coast this weekend and if it would could interact with the very warm Gulf Stream allowing for the potential of development into a tropical system. This is something that should be monitored by those having interests along the eastern seaboard of the United States.

Another area of interest is a tropical wave near 50 West latitude. This system will continue to track to the west over the next few days and it may develop into a tropical storm late this week. It then would like turn more northwesterly into the Gulf of Mexico and may become a concern for interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Yet another area to watch and this is another wave of energy moving off the west coast of Africa and is following TD 2. Now as I was mentioning earlier with TD 2 it has a bunch of dry air in front of it to work against. The wave following TD 2 will have a moister atmosphere to work with due to TD 2 leaving behind a bit of a wake of moisture. Some modeling data indicates that this could become a long track system that moves across the Atlantic. Question would then be where would it go? Too early to say but it could affect anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to the East Coast or plain just stay out to sea. Climatologically speaking, it would likely track initially west and then northwest towards Bermuda and then potentially the East Coast of the United States in 7 to 10 days or so.

So, even though it has been very quiet tropically, things appear to be ramping up. At least for the next couple of weeks.

Western Heat to Build East, Storms Lead the WAAY First

Through much of the month of July a large upper level ridge held strong from Texas northwestward through much of the western U.S. providing for a hot month while a trough held tight bringing cooler and wetter than normal conditions to the East. A flip in the pattern will take place through this week into the start of next allowing the ridge to switch with the trough.

This means it will cool off in the West and heat up in the East. 90s will be the rule again for much of the southeastern fourth of the nation with 100s building again across much of the Plains, Kansas to Texas. In addition, high humidity levels will add to the heat allowing heat index values to rise 100-110 degrees for many.

This pattern switch doesn't come easy and quiet, though. As the pattern shifts a battle zone will set up providing for storms, some of which will be severe. This evening's severe weather will be confined mainly along and near the Ohio River and across the Black Hills. Severe storms will remain a possibility on Wednesday from the Black Hills southeastward into the Mid-South.

The severe storm threat will continue from much of the northern Plains right through Friday, too.

The main threat with these storms will be large hail and severe winds. A low threat for tornadoes is anticipated. Remember, though, storms can become severe with little or no warning. For this reason you need to remain weather aware. I also recommend that you invest in either a NOAA weather radio or even better, Weather Call.

In case you are not familiar with Weather Call, it is a personal warning notification system that will provide you with immediate warnings for severe storms and tornadoes by contacting you via one of three methods: email, text message or phone. You can also set up the notification system to contact you up to 3 different ways and in any combination. For example, you can have it call your home and cell phones and email you, too. The great thing about Weather Call is that it only notifies you of warnings that are specific for your programmed location. It uses the new storm based warnings issued by the National Weather Service and not the county warnings previously issued and still used by NOAA Weather radio. This makes the warnings provided by Weather Call to be much more specific and only to those in immediate danger. WAAY-TV, one of several T.V. stations, offers this service for just $6.95 per year for any location in the lower 48. You can learn more or even subscribe by simply clicking here. If you chose to subscribe online you will immediately be signed up and ready to-go for any warnings that may head your WAAY.