Some Serious Rains

May Help to Reduce Drought for Texas and Oklahoma

A wet weather pattern is continuing to set up across the Southern United States from Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley for this week. We are definitely in need of some rainfall to help break drought conditions in Texas but too much rain too fast is not good either.


Steady rains have been impacting much of the Southern Plains into northern Texas Monday afternoon into Monday evening and some radar estimates through 9 PM indicate 8+" of rainfall in northeast Texas and this is likely just the tip of the iceberg.


The current weather pattern will provide for several waves of rain, some heavy, moving west to east from the Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Monday through Friday.

This pattern will also allow for the potential of heavy rains occurring several times over the same locations, too, called training. This could set up the potential for flash flooding across these areas. As a result, if you live in or near a traditional flood zone be weather aware and prepared to move to higher ground in the event flooding would occur. Here is the exclusive Storm Force 31 model prediction for rainfall through midday Friday based on Monday evening's model run. Notice the purple on the map. That indicates rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches. The maximum on the map is near Texarkana, Texas, where the model is forecasting 11.1”!

Unsettled Weather Across Much of the Lower U.S. Third

A stagnant weather pattern is setting up across the Eastern United States and this is going to affect many from the Mississippi Valley through the Mid-South and into the Tennessee Valley by providing waves of rain and t-storms. Some of the waves will include some moderate to heavy rains. So what is exactly going on. The jetstream is dipping unusually far to the south for this time of year allowing fronts and waves of energy to traverse near and through these regions. This mixed with seasonally warm and humid air south of the jetstream sets up the ingredients that mix together to fire thunderstorms.



In addition, the pattern is rather stagnant and that will allow for thunderstorm clusters to develop in the same locations and track in the same direction. This will provide the set up of some areas seeing repeat heavy rainfall which could become a flash flooding concern. Here is a look at the forecast rainfall through Thursday morning across the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley.

Your Weekend Forecast

Another cold front will be sweeping southeastward out of the Upper Midwest on Saturday. It will make it to the Atlantic Coast on Sunday but at the same time it arrives will begin to wash out. As it traverses southeastward it will bring an area of rain and t-storms with it. On Saturday, the best chances for rainfall will be confined to the Upper Midwest, Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. Some of the afternoon thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley could become severe. Temperatures behind this front will still be some-what cool across the Upper Midwest with 60s and 70s. Along and ahead of the front temperatures will rise into the 80s and 90s. The humidity will also increase providing a more uncomfortable feel from the Gulf Coast northward into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. This will actually be one of the few true summer weekends to-date from the Mid-Atlantic northward into New England.

On Sunday, the highest rainfall chances will stretch near the washing out frontal boundary from New York southward along the Atlantic Coast and back through the Southeastern and Southern U.S. Cooler and drier air will filter into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. It will also be mostly cloudy for these areas, especially up across the Great Lakes. This will help to keep temperatures mainly in the 70s from Iowa to New York while the 80s and few 90s will hold on from the Mid-Atlantic into the Deep South.

The washed out front will set up for a wet week, next week, in the Southeast as daily thunderstorms will be likely due to the lingering boundary. More on this late this weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Heading Towards New England?

Nope! But a surface low pressure system has developed east of Norfolk, Virginia and it is heading off to the NNE at 20 mph. This low will likely never become tropical but will produce gale force winds and to some along the New England coast may feel like a tropical storm. Currently, with this area of low pressure there is a widespread area of rain with a few t-storms and some gusty winds.

It is also increasing wave heights and surf. Some very heavy rains in the range of 1" to 3" are possible overnight tonight into Friday across New England as the low tracks northward. The strongest winds, 30-50 MPH, will be kept mainly off shore; however, southeast Massachusetts may see winds for a period Friday morning near 30 mph with higher gusts. The low will continue to track to the north-northeast through the day on Friday and will head towards the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday morning. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic Basin continues to remain quiet and will remain that way through the weekend.

Latest On Possible Tropical Development off Southeast Coast

Talked yesterday about two disturbed areas in the Caribbean with one being near Puerto Rico and another in the Bahamas. This afternoon the focus is mainly in the Bahamas northward to the Southeast Coastal region. Reviewing satellite data, the disturbance that was near Puerto Rico yesterday has been sheared apart by northward moving winds on the west side of a "Bermuda High".

This has allowed additional moisture to stream northward and feed into the Bahamian disturbance. However, the overall disturbance remains unorganized and is just a broad area of showers and t-storms from the northern Bahamas northward across the Gulf Stream off the Southeast Coast. At the same time an approaching upper level disturbance across the Southeastern U.S. will likely merge with the energy streaming northward through the Bahamas. It is possible that a surface low could develop off the Carolina coast tonight and develop into a Tropical Depression but I am not convinced. Overall, things will stay quiet relative to actual tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin through the end of the week.

Disturbances in Caribbean May Be of Concern for East Coast

There are two waves moving across the Caribbean with one being in the Bahamas and the second moving through Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

The trough moving through the Caribbean is not well organized and is just delivering scattered showers and storms to the Bahamas and parts of southeast Florida. An upper level system swinging through the Lower Mississippi Valley will help to reinforce an upper level trough across the Eastern U.S. It may also help to enhance this feature in the Bahamas as additional energy swings in from the west on Wednesday. A more organized low may develop off the Carolinas by Thursday morning and then move off to the northeast through the remainder of the week. This system may become a tropical cyclone but if it does it should not affect the U.S. Atlantic coast directly.

The second wave moving through Puerto Rico and tracking to the east will continue to bring rain and thunderstorms to the region.The model consensus is to track this disturbance to the west-northwest across Hispaniola over the next 24-hours. Then there are some differences amongst them but overall the agreement is to track it into the Bahamas and then curve it to the north-northeast this weekend.

In the short term, conditions in the upper levels are not very favorable for significant development of this system; however, the models are indicating that by Thursday into Friday it may develop into a tropical storm. They then trend with a gradual strengthening of the system to near hurricane strength by Sunday but I am not convinced on this. I will monitor both of these systems and keep informed on the latest.

Welcome Weekly Blog Hoppers

Thanks for stopping by on this weeks blog hop!
Not only am I a Meteorologist, but a pretty good cook!
With a very hectic job and 19 month old twins at home, easy recipes make cooking fun!
Here you will find a delicious and EASY CROCK-POT recipe that is low fat and perfect for those of you watching your weight with weight watchers.

Low Fat Chicken Stroganoff
3-4 skinless chicken breasts. Those that come frozen work great!
(1) 10.5 reduced fat cream of chicken soup
(!) package of Italian Salad Dressing, such as Seven Seas
8 ounces of cream cheese (reduced fat)
Reduced Fat Egg Noodles
Directions:
Put the chicken in the crock pot and cover with cream of chicken soup. Then, sprinkle the Italian Salad dressing seasoning over the top. Cook for 6-8 hours on low heat and occasionally stir the soup/seasoning mixture.
About 30 minutes before serving, take chicken breasts out and shred the chicken. Place back in with the soup mixture and add the cream cheese and stir in well. Cook for 10-20 minutes while you are boiling your egg noodes.
Then, serve the chicken stroganoff over the egg noodles.
Weight Watchers Points per serving: 5

Now that I have tantalized your taste buds, check back off so that I can tantalize you with weather facts and information. Thanks again for stopping by and I hope that you become a follower of my blog!


..STOP

Record Setting July Chill

A rare July cool push as far south as the Deep South will be easing as we head through this week but overall it will still remain below normal for much of this week in the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. So just how unusual is the cool, crisp air for the month of July? Well here is a list of records tied or broken this weekend into today.

Saturday's Records

Huntsville, AL: 59 (Tied Previous Record Low set in 1959)

Decatur, AL: 57 (Old Record Low 58 set in 1967)

Tuscaloosa, AL: 61 (Old Record Low 64 set 1967)

Nashville, TN: 76 (Tied Record Low Maximum Temperature Previously set in 1918)

Jackson, TN: 78 (Old Record Low Maximum Temperature 84 Previously set in 1976)

Germantown, TN: 60 (Old Record Low 65 set 2000)

Jonesboro, AR: 81 (Old Record Low Maximum Temperature 83 Previously set in 1938

Tupelo, MS: 83 (Ties Old Record Low Maximum Temperature Previously set in 1969)

Sunday's Records

Muscle Shoals, AL: 57 (Old Record Low 58 set in 1976)

Decatur, AL: 58 (Old Record Low 59 set in 1967)

Huntsville, AL: 80 (Tied Record Low Maximum Temperature Previously set in 1938)

Tuscaloosa, AL: 60 (Old Record Low 64 set 1984)

Nashville, TN: 57 (Tied Previous Record Low set in 1976)

Jackson, TN: 55 (Old Record Low 59 Previously set in 1984)

Jackson, TN: 80 (Old Record Low Maximum Temperature 85 Previously set in 2004)

Jonesboro, AR: 82 (Old Record Low Maximum Temperature 83 Previously set in 2002)

Monday's Records

Huntsville, AL: 58 (Old Record Low 59 set in 1947)

Birmingham, AL: 59 (Old Record Low 60 set in 1947)

Calera, AL: 59 (Old Record Low 60 set in 1976)

Montgomery, AL: 59 (Old Record Low 63 set in 1923)

Troy, AL: 57 (Old Record Low 60 set 1923)

Tuscaloosa, AL: 59 (Old Record Low 64 set 2004)

Anniston, AL: 55 (Old Record Low 60 set in 1947)

Alexander City, AL: 57 (Old Record Low 62 set in 1984)

Clanton, AL: 57 (Old Record Low 62 set in 1925, 1947 & 1962)

Pinson, AL: 55 (Old Record Low 61 set in 1962)

Nashville, TN: 59 (Ties Previous Record Low set in 1947)

Crossville, TN: 52 (Old Record Low 57 set in 1970)

Record Chill to Affect Much of the East Friday into Monday

A chilly airmass for the month of July is sinking south out of Canada and it will encompass much of the nation along and east of the Mississippi River from the Canadian border to the Deep South through this weekend. On Friday, the Great Lakes south to the Ohio River will be seeing the affects of this airmass with temperatures in the afternoon only topping out in the low to mid 50s across northern Wisconsin/Michigan and only near 80 along the Ohio River, which is 10-25 degrees below normal.

Friday night into Saturday morning will also be chilly with record lows likely to be set with 40s from northern Minnesota to northern Michigan and 50s all the way south pas the Ohio River. Unfortunately, many of us will be dealing with showers on Saturday and will not be able to completely enjoy this cool July weather.

Not the case though, along the Mississippi River from Minnesota to Memphis and through the Tennessee Valley where sunshine, low humidity and terrific temperatures will make for wonderful outdoor enjoyment. The coolness will continue right into Sunday and record lows may even be set Sunday morning as far south as the Tennessee Valley.

Endeavour, A Go or No Go Wednesday?

Shuttle Endeavour has been plagued by storms and not able to the launch the last couple of attempts but what will the weather be like for Wednesday's planned launch? Also how are the tropics looking today and when will it cool down in the Plains and southern U.S? These questions are answered in today's weather video briefing. Please take a look.

Welcome Blog Hoppers

Welcome blog hoppers to this week's blog hop post. Thanks for stopping by and make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest weather information. This week's theme is 3 things you did not know about me. Here you go:

1. I have been to Europe 3 times and have visited the following countries: Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and Austria)

2. I have visited every state in the Union except for Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia, North Dakota, Idaho, Montanna, & Washington.

3. Proud dad of 19-month old twins

Thanks again for visiting and make sure to check out the latest weather updates right here several times a week.

Storms Strike Upper Plains but Weather Looking Good for All-Star Game

Active weather will affect the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains this evening and possibly again on Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region. Further south, the weather looks like it will cooperate with the Major League Baseball All-Star game on Tuesday in St. Louis but may not cooperate with the planned launch of the shuttle Endeavour. Also the tropical east Pacific is getting more active. Learn about all this in detail with today's weather briefing.

Weather Briefing Looking into the Weekend

Unsettled Weather in the Southeast to Hold Back the “Real” Heat

Big summer heat is building across the Southern Plains and it will be trying to build to the north and east through the remainder of the week. The obstacle it will have in how far east it will make it through the end of the week will be where will the storms and rain be in association to a stationary boundary and waves of low pressure that will move along it.

The stationary boundary is currently stretched along the Gulf Coast from near New Orleans to Mobile and into southwestern GA and up into South Carolina. Along the boundary one wave of low pressure was located in central GA. To the north of the boundary, scattered showers and a few t-storms were occurring and where they were temperatures were being kept into the 80s.

However, just to the north of the shield of clouds associated with the rain showers/t-storms, temperatures were rising into the low 90s. More substantial rains were found south of the boundary from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across northern Florida. This weather pattern has set up for some substantial rains along the Gulf Coast and into northern Florida, heaviest being into northern Florida from near Cross City to Gainesville where 2+" of rain has fallen in the last 48 hours. As a result, a flood watch has been issued for Levy and Citrus counties in Florida until Thursday evening. This is due to the fact that the weather pattern will not change much through the next 24-hours as another wave of low pressure will develop and move along the stationary boundary tonight into Thursday delivering more rains to already wet areas.

As a result of little change in the overall weather pattern for Thursday and even into Friday, temperatures will not change a lot across the Southeast either. The "Real" heat will remain confined over the Southern Plains where many will see readings back above 100 from Texas into Kansas. Heat advisories are already in place for portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and also across southern Texas. Looking out into the weekend, it doesn't look a whole lot different with the mid 90s making it east to the Mississippi River with 90s stretching into the Carolinas with the 100s remain in the Southern Plains.

The upper level high that is bringing the building heat to the Southern Plains will also bring reduce air quality. Moderate-high conditions were already occurring in the Little Rock and Dallas-Ft. Worth metro areas, today. For Thursday, the moderate-high conditions will spread east into the Memphis metro area. Please remember that moderate-high air quality conditions stands for "unhealthy for sensitive groups." If you are sensitive to poor air you may experience health effects while the general public is likely to not be affected.

That is it for today. If you have to be in the heat, please use caution and drink plenty of non-alcoholic beverages. Try to get into air conditioning as much as possible and remember to check on the elderly and pets.

Thanks for stopping by and make sure to check back tomorrow for Thursday's weather briefing video.

Gulf Coast Stays Unsettled, TS Blanca in the Pacific and Heat Wave Builds

Learn about the latest regarding the continued wet times along the Gulf Coast, the latest regarding T.S. Blanca and a building heat wave that will impact much of the county by viewing today's weather briefing.

Blog Hop: Welcome

Welcome Blog Hop viewers to Meteorlogist, Dale Bader's weather blog.
Be sure to visit often to get the latest weather information, updates and briefings. As always, your suggestions and comments are welcome! Give me a shout out and let me know where you are visiting from!

Beautiful Weather Picture, St. Louis, MO

***Hope you enjoyed the above photo. If you have a cool weather picture you would like to share to have shown on this blog simply email it to dopplerdale@dopplerdale.com . I will show all photos provided on Friday's post. Thanks in advance and make sure to include your name and location of photo so it can be credited. Also include your blog site if you have one.***

Tropical Storm Blanca forms in Eastern Pacific

While the tropics have been quiet in the Atlantic basin, the Pacific has its second named tropical system of the year. Tropical Storm Blanca has now formed off the west coast of Mexico and will track into the Pacific over the next few days.

As of 10 AM CDT, Monday, the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located about 410 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of BAJA California. Blanca is moving towards the west-northwest around 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph with higher gusts and some intensification is expected over the next 24- hours.

Back here in the U.S. there will be two main weather features for this week. First, a stationary frontal boundary in the Southeast will bring waves of rain and t-storms. This will be a good thing for some like New Orleans who is currently more than a foot below normal for the year. Some areas along the Gulf Coast could see as much as 6" or so of rainfall this week.

Secondly, a big "Heat Ridge" will be building over the Plains and it will shift eastward through the week. Widespread 90s and 100s will be the result. The heat will make its way to the Mississippi River and into the Southeast by Wednesday and linger right through next weekend. In addition to the heat, humidity will also be on the rise providing for heat index values in excess of 100 degrees for many and for some in excess of 110 degrees.

That is it for today. Make sure to check back tomorrow for the first weather briefing of the week where we will take a closer look at the upcoming heat wave and also a look into the tropics and the latest on Blanca.

Fourth of July Forecast

Here is today's Doppler Dale Weather Briefing. Included in today's briefing is a look a severe weather chances today and the overall weather pattern and how things are looking for your fourth of July plans. I especially take a look at what to expect for key firework displays in Boston, Washington DC, Orlando, St. Louis and Las Vegas and also what to expect at the beach this weekend. I also give you a prelude of what to expect next week. So enjoy and take a peak!

Tornadoes in July; Where and How Often?

Happy July 1^st! Many believe that by this time of the year tornado season has concluded. In general that might be right if you are discussing the Gulf coastal area or the Southern Plains. However, tornadoes can occur at any time of the year in any location in the lower 48. As Winter fades into Spring the beginning of tornado season occurs along the Gulf Coast. As Spring peaks, tornado season peaks in the Southern Plains. As June arrives, the peak tornado season shifts northward into northeast Colorado through the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest. For July, the maximum tornado occurrence remains from northeast Colorado through the Upper Midwest. The average number of tornadoes during the month of July is 94 with a peak of 234 in July 1993.

In total, since 1959 and estimated 5,000 tornadoes have been reported in 47 states.

We now know that as a whole the Upper Midwest is likely the location of the country to most likely see tornadoes during this month but where exactly? Surprisingly, the state to most likely see a tornado during this month is not even in the Upper Midwest but instead is in the Mid-Atlantic, Maryland, based on the Annual Coverage Fraction (ACF) calculated by VorTek. The remaining states within the top 10 are:

1. Maryland
   
2. Nebraska
   
3. Illinois
   
4. Wisconsin
   
5. Iowa
   
6. Minnesota
   
7. Ohio
   
8. New Jersey
   
9. Michigan
   
10. Massachusetts
    

VorTek also calculates the cities most likely to experience a tornado during this month. The city that tops the list is Minneapolis. The completed top 10 list is:

1. Minneapolis, MN
   
2. St. Paul, MN
   
3. Allentown, PA
   
4. Bloomington, MN
   
5. Albany, NY
   
6. Wilmington, DE
   
7. Lowell, MA
   
8. Fargo, ND
   
9. Philadelphia, PA
   
10. Davenport, IA
    

A few of the other cities that made it onto the top 20 list include: Gary, IN (11), Milwaukee, WI (12), Dayton, OH (13), Lansing, MI (15) and Hartford, CT (18).

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