Heavy Rains Across Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys May Bring Flooding

Very little change in the thoughts from yesterday. Still expecting a very slow transition in the weather pattern and with this slow transition a nearly steady battle ground across the Heartland will exist and with it continuous periods of steady rain, moderate to heavy at times, today through much of the upcoming weekend.

The rain will fall over already saturated ground and into river basins that already are near flooding or are flooding. This includes many of the rivers across eastern MO, IL, IN and OH such as the Mississippi, Missouri, Illinois, Wabash and the Ohio. Model indications for the amount of precipitation that will fall through Sunday morning are in the 3"-6" range from MO to WV.

In addition, since this is a battle ground, embedded storms could reach severe levels with the main threat being large hail and damaging winds. A slight risk area has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center from TX through the MS Valley into the OH Valley for today and little change in that area over the next few days, too.

Heavy Rains Expected for Mid-Mississippi River Valley May Bring Flooding

Severe Weather is Also Possible for Much of the Central U.S., too

As we continue down the path to a slow pattern change, we continue to see slow moving storm systems across the center of the nation. This is setting up for some very wet times from OK into the OH Valley.

Steady to heavy rains will start up again today and continue into Thursday. Some of the heaviest rains will likely fall across already saturated areas of NE OK/SE KS and MO. For this reason the National Weather Service has issued flash flood watches for most of this area.

In addition, the atmosphere is unstable and supportable for strong to severe t-storms for much of the Plains states. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a large area of slight risk for severe weather to encompass most of the Plains for today. Cities included in the risk area are: Lincoln, NE; Topeka, KS; Goodland, KS; Dodge City, KS; Wichita, KS; Oklahoma City, OK; and the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex.

As discussed yesterday, the current weather pattern has set up for early warmth across much of the East and late season cold in the West. This set up is now allowing for a major winter storm across the state of Montana. Some locations will see in excess of 12" through tonight.

Now in the East, a front has slipped through New England and as a result cooler, more spring-like temperatures return. Temperatures today will be 20-30 degrees cooler then yesterday. On Tuesday, parts of New England saw some very warm temperatures with afternoon max temperatures rising into the 90s; Boston 93 (old record 90 in 1990), Concord 93 (old record 92 in 1990), Hartford 94 (tied 1990 record), Portland 92 (old record 81 in 1990), Bangor 90 (old record 80 in 1938).

The front will not make it south of the OH River so that will keep the South still in the bubble of warmth for most of the remainder of the week.

Pattern Change on the Way, But it will be Slow

Results in Slow Moving Systems that Bring Flooding Rains

The weather pattern over the U.S. since late last week has had a large, dominant ridge across the Eastern U.S. with a trough in the West. Under the ridge the weather has been quiet and quite warm with some record warmth. The warmest air relative to normal has been from the OH/MS Valley into the Mid Atlantic and northward into New England where temperatures have been as much as 20 degrees above normal.

While the East has been baking the West has been cool and in some cases cold with still more snow. More snow is still expected across the Northern Rockies today and tonight.

Where the trough transitions into the ridge across the Plains into the Upper Midwest, a battle ground has been set up. Periods of rain and strong to severe thunderstorms have been occurring. Some of the rainfall has been quite heavy. Rain over the past 24 hours across SE KS has ranged between 5"-8". While at least 1" of rain has fallen across most of eastern KS. This is aiding in creating some moderate to major flooding across the region. Some of the worst flooding is along the Arkansas River southeast of Wichita. Significant flooding was also occurring along the Neosho River. Kansas is not the only spot seeing flooding, moderate to major flooding is also reported along the James River in SD; Platte River in MO; Grand River in MO; Illinois River in IL; and the Red River along MN/ND border.

As we continue to head through the remainder of the work week, the ridge in the East will slowly weaken and allow the overall pattern to flatten out and become more west to east in nature. As this happens, the rain will begin to spread eastward into the OH Valley and portions of the East Coast. Many from the Plains to the Atlantic Coast will be wet a few times this week, sometimes quite wet. Many will see at least 1" of rainfall over the next 4 days with some locations likely seeing as much as 3" to 5". Isolated areas that see the very heaviest rains could see amounts in excess of 6". This has already occurred in the Houston metro area where 9" to 11" of rain had fallen in spots. Many roads in the Houston area were flooded Tuesday morning. Several area schools were closed as a result, too. Here is how it looked this morning in Houston (Photo from KHOU-TV). Over the next 24hours, the heaviest rains will fall from the OH Valley into eastern TX.

Unsettled Times This Week

A broad ridge has been encompassing the eastern ½ of the U.S. during the past weekend. This has allowed for a taste of summer to those of you from the MS River eastward into New England and south to the Gulf of Mexico. Several locations, especially across New England, broke record high temperatures this weekend. Some of these locations included Portend and Caribou, ME and Islip and New York City in New York. In fact, the New York City area climbed into the 90s on Sunday and broke their records by more than 10 degrees! The warmth will continue today so a few more records may be set.

Westward into the Plains and across the western U.S. opposite conditions existed with a trough in place. This has set up a battleground across the Plains into the Upper Midwest where thunderstorms have been occurring and will continue to do so for much of this week. On Sunday, widespread severe weather occurred from WI to TX with 11 possible tornadoes reported. Today, a large area of severe weather is possible again. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather from MI back into TX. Several major metro areas are included in this risk and some included are: Detroit, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Memphis, Little Rock, Dallas, Houston and Shreveport. The main risk is for damaging winds and large destructive hail.

As we head through this week the ridge in the East will slowly break down. This will set up for an unsettled weather pattern for many from the Plains to the East Coast. Scattered periods of showers and t-storms are expected as a result.

Upper Midwest May See Some Severe Weather, Rest of US in the East Stay Quiet and Warm

Overall, not a lot to talk about as we are in a relatively quiet pattern for most of the Eastern U.S as a ridge of high pressure continues to build. A trough will be deepening over the next several days across the West cooling that part of the nation down. A cold will basically lie along the location where the ridge and trough meet across the Upper Midwest through the Plains through the next 5 days. Along this boundary rain showers and thunderstorms will occasionally occur and some of these will become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Slight Risk" for severe weather for much of WI through southeastern MN into IA and eastern NE for Friday. On Saturday, the "Slight Risk" expands southwestward and stretches from the TX/OK Panhandle through KS and northwest MO into IA. The "Slight Risk" area pushes a bit further east on Sunday, MI to eastern TX. If you have not already done so, I strongly encourage you to sign up for Weather Call. Weather Call will alert you via phone, email and/or text message of warnings specifically for your location. You can learn more and sign up by simply clicking here. You can also learn more about Weather Call by watching this video. Please note you can sign up for Weather Call for any location in the U.S.

For the rest of the Eastern U.S. from the Gulf Coast to the Mid Atlantic and even into New England and nice warming trend is expected with lots of sunshine. Temperatures will be warm today across the Plains southward into TX and across the Gulf Coast. On Friday, the warmth spreads as far north and east as MI/WI. By Saturday, the warmth makes it into New England.

Look Into the Sky Tonight to See the Lyrids

Every April Earth passes through the remains of Comet Thatcher creating the Lyrid meteor shower. This year, the peak of the shower will occur tonight into early Wednesday morning. Best viewing will be during the darkest hours prior to dawn. Space forecasters predict 10 to 20 meteors per hour. The reason the shower is name the Lyrids is because the meteors appear to be originating from the constellation Lyra.

The Lyrids are the oldest known meteor shower, first being noted by the Chinese more than 2,000 years ago. In most years, the Lyrids are a rather weak meteor shower with only 10 to 20 meteors per hour and that is what is predicted for this year. However, there have been past years where activity was quite high. In 1982, the Lyrids produced about 90 meteors per hour. If you plan on seeing just how many meteors will occur this year, make sure to have either a reclined chair or lay a blanket down on the ground and look eastward and good luck.

So who has a chance of clear skies to see the Lyrids tonight?

Most of you along and west of the MS River will likely have clear skies tonight allowing for great viewing conditions. East of the MS River and north of the TN River, skies will be more cloudy and conditions will not be perfect. The thickest clouds and worst viewing conditions will exist across the OH Valley, Great Lakes and New England.

Cool to Start the Week but GREAT Warm-up to End the Week

A cool Spring system is affecting the East today and will continue to do so right into Wednesday for most before a very nice rapid warm-up will occur. The cooler air will linger a bit longer for New England but they too will see a nice warm-up late week. With the cool air will be lots of clouds and scattered rain showers. Some of these rain showers may mix with or briefly change to snow along and north of I-80.

Opposite conditions will be occurring, though, for the next few days in the Southwestern U.S. will record warmth is expected. The record warmth began on Sunday across portions of California. San Francisco had a high temperature Sunday of 88 which broke the previous record high by 5 degrees. Los Angeles also set a new record high Sunday when their temperature rose to 94 breaking a 95 year old record high of 92. Anaheim, California also had Sunday's warmest temperature for the U.S., 102. Here is a list of some additional record highs set on Sunday:

City, State	Sunday's High & New Record	Old Record High and Date Set
Laguna Beach, CA	89	84 (1999)
Santa Ana, CA	101	91 (1958)
Riverside, CA	99	95 (1958)
San Diego, CA	91	85 (1914)
Ontario, CA	96	91 (1980)
Long Beach, CA	97	88 (1986)
Stockton, CA	92	91 (1950)

Other than this, it will be a relatively quiet work week across much of the nation. Late week another cold front will drop out of Canada into the northern Rockies and this will move eastward through the weekend into early next week. I will keep you informed on this as we get closer to the weekend.

Severe Weather Likely across the SE Today

A strong Spring storm system will be moving from the Mid-Ms Valley into the TN/OH Valleys today. A warm, moist and unstable atmosphere ahead of the system sets the priming needed for widespread severe weather this afternoon through this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather for today for much of the SE. Some of the cities included in this risk are: Nashville, TN; Knoxville, TN; Chattanooga, TN; Huntsville, AL; Birmingham, AL; Montgomery, AL; Atlanta, GA; Greenville/Spartanburg, SC. The main risk with the severe weather today will be large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also possible.

This same storm system brought widespread severe weather to KS/OK/TX/MO/AR/LA last night into early Friday morning. 24 unconfirmed reports of tornadoes have been reported with those storms as well as lots of reports of large hail and damaging winds.

Be Weather Aware Today and make sure to Sign Up for Weather Call. If you would like some additional information regarding Weather Call or to sign up simply click here. You can also go here and watch an informational introduction to Weather Call.

Severe Weather Likely Thursday and Friday

Busy day today so I have to keep things brief. A storm system will be moving eastward from the OK/TX Panhandles into MO through Friday morning and then into VA by Saturday morning. A widespread rain event will occur along the I-70 corridor as this system moves by. Near the surface low and stretching southward severe t-storms are expected to develop late this afternoon and continue into the overnight from southern KS-eastern OK-MO-AR-Mid South.

The Storm Prediction Center has even issued a "Moderate Risk" for severe t-storms from southeastern KS-northeastern OK-northwest AR for tonight surrounded by an area of "Slight Risk". Main threat is large hail and damaging winds but a few isolated tornadoes are possible.

As the system shifts eastward on Friday, the threat for severe weather also shifts east into the southern OH Valley southward through the TN Valley and to the Gulf Coast and eastward into the Carolinas.

The highest threat for severe weather on Friday will be over the Cumberland Plateau southward into the TN Valley. The SPC percentage risk for Friday for this area is 30%, up from 15% yesterday.

Make sure to monitor local media and remain weather aware if you live in and near any of the severe weather risk areas. If you live in the TN Valley or are just interested you can stay up-to-date with the latest weather conditions and updates by joing the WAAY 31 Storm Force 31 Team on Twitter or Facebook. Simply look up "StormForce31".

Spring-Like Feel to Return in the East; Anchorage Shaken Up

A chilly few days across much of the Eastern U.S. will now quickly give way to a more Spring-like feel. The warm-up began on Tuesday across the Plains and today it will spread eastward into the Mid-MS/TN Valleys. Lots of sunshine and mild temperatures can be expected even though it was a freezing start. Further south and west across much of TX, temperatures will rise into the mid-upper 80s. A few spots will even top 90.

On Thursday, the warm-up will continue its eastward push by making its way into the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. At the same time, the next Spring storm system will be spinning up across the Panhandles of TX/OK. North of the storm system from KS into NE rain will develop. Some of the rain will mix with and potentially change over to snow before ending across central NE. Ahead and south of the storm system, thunderstorms will develop along the I-35 corridor from southern KS into TX Thursday evening. These storms will likely become severe and for this reason, the SPC has issued a "Slight Risk" for severe t-storms for Thursday evening into Friday morning from the eastern Southern Plains into the Mid/Lower MS Valleys. As of yesterday, the percentage risk was only 15% and today it is now up to 30% from southern MO through AR and into northern LA. The threat for severe storms will shift eastward into the lower OH Valley/TN Valley/South on Friday.

Now is a GREAT time to become prepared for severe weather if you aren't already. Do you have Weather Call? "NO," you say. Well, let me tell you how GREAT this system is. Just last week, we had severe weather that threatened the Huntsville Metro area with tornadoes. The local EMA attempted to sound the sirens but it took 3 tries and about 13 minutes after the tornado warning was issued before they were first heard. However, those in the path of the dangerous storm who had Weather Call were notified within 60 seconds and when it comes to saving lives in the path of a potential tornado every second counts. You can see the proof in the numbers from this event by simply clicking here.

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On a different note, a geologic one, a 4.6 magnitude earthquake occurred Tuesday near Anchorage in Alaska. Now earthquakes in Alaska are not rare it has been awhile since an earthquake of this magnitude or higher has occurred near Anchorage. The earthquake shook around 12:12 PM Tuesday and was centered about 20 miles northeast of Anchorage. Residents reported feeling the rocking 'n rolling. No significant damage has been reported but some dishes were broken. The earthquake was relatively shallow, about 15 miles, and as a result was felt over a wide area of south-central Alaska. Now even though Mt. Redoubt, a nearby volcano, has been active spewing ash and shaking the Earth, this earthquake was not related according to the Alaska Earthquake Information Center.

Regarding Mt. Redoubt, the threat level has been lowered to Orange-Alert Level Watch. Major eruptions have ended, for now but a steady cloud of steam and ash was still seen on Tuesday and seismic activity remains elevated. In addition, a lava dome is continuing to grow within the summit crater. As a result, the Alaska Volcano Observatory remains on 24/7 watch and warns that significant explosive events can occur at any time with little or no warning. Here is an image taken a few days ago when the AVO performed an observation and gas collection overflight. Photographer: Heather Bleick.

Spring Will Be Returning and Quickly, but not Before One More Threat of Widespread Freeze

A strong cold blast continues across most of the Eastern U.S. today. Scattered snow showers will continue across much of the eastern Great Lakes and into the OH Valley. The heaviest snowfall will occur in the traditional lake effect snow belt from NE OH-NW PA-Western NY where 6" to 12" is possible through early Wednesday. For those of you not seeing snow the threat for you is another overnight with temperatures below freezing. Freeze warnings are in effect for tonight into Wednesday morning for most of the country along and east of I-35-along and south of I-70 and along and north of the Gulf Coast, basically the southeast ¼ of the country.

Otherwise, relatively quiet across much of the country along and east of the Rockies through Wednesday. A quick return to Spring will begin, today, across the Plains and quickly spread eastward on Wednesday and Thursday.

The next storm system of consequence will begin to spin up across the Southern Plains on Thursday. It will bring rains, not snow, this time to the Blackhills southward into western KS with strong to severe t-storms possible from OK/TX into the Lower and Mid-MS Valleys.

For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms for these areas on Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Some of the cities included in the Slight Risk area are: Wichita, KS; Springfield, MO; New Madrid, MO; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Tyler, TX; Shreveport, LA; Monroe, LA; Little Rock, AR; Ft. Smith, AR and Texarkana, TX.

Feels Like Winter, at Least for a Few Days

A blast of cold air is encompassing much of the Eastern U.S. including down along the Gulf Coast. Freeze warnings and watches are in effect for tonight/early Tuesday and again for Tuesday night into early Wednesday for most of the OH/MS/TN Valleys, OK, northern TX and along the Gulf Coast from LA to the FL Panhandle.

Some light snow/snow showers are possible this evening/overnight across the OH/TN Valleys. However, accumulations are not expected except for a few higher elevation locations in eastern TN where up to a 1/2" of grassy accumulation is possible.

If you have planted tender plants and are concerned about them, find out how to protect them by simply visiting the Storm Force 31 weather blog.

A warm up to more seasonal conditions will begin across the Plains on Tuesday, spreading north and east into the MS/TN Valleys and into the Carolinas by Thursday.

By Thursday afternoon, attention will turn to another developing storm system across the Southern Plains. This system will track to the ENE through Saturday. Some severe weather may be possible with this system, but it is still quite away out, so we will just monitor it.

Old Man Winter Doesn’t Want to Let Go

Storm system that delivered severe weather across much of the South on Thursday shifts east into the Atlantic Coastal area. Widespread rain is likely, today, from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly south of I-80 but not anticipating severe weather.

Looking west we see yet another powerful Spring storm system revving up across the 4-corners. Like the past several systems to come out of this region, widespread swath of snow is expected for many across the Rockies. Snow will start flying this afternoon/evening across much of UT into WY. Snow may even stretch far enough south to coat the mountains surrounding Las Vegas and even make it as far south as I-40 in northern AZ tonight into early Saturday.

During the day Saturday, the storm system will strengthen as it moves through CO. Heavy snow will occur from CO-WY-Western NE, SD-ND. Yet another blizzard is possible. The heaviest snow will fall from SE WY into the Badlands of SD similar to the blizzard that occurred about 10 days ago. Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and Blizzard Warnings are already in effect from UT to WI for this event for this weekend. For most of the remainder of the Eastern U.S., Saturday will be a very nice day with lots of sunshine and mild temperatures.

By Sunday, the storm system will move into western IA. Moderate to heavy snow will fall from the eastern Dakotas across MN and into WI.

Southward, a trailing cold front will ignite some showers and t-storms from eastern NE southward into eastern OK and east to the OH/TN Valleys. The Storm Prediction Center does have a Slight Risk for severe storms on Sunday for much of AL into GA and across the FL Panhandle; however, I don't see this as a major outbreak and it appears over the past few days that the chances for severe weather are actually lessening. In either case, this potential should still be monitored and I can't stress enough, if you have not already signed up for Weather Call, do so. Last evening, while working the severe weather event at WAAY-TV, I received an email from a viewer who's weather radio did not alert them to the threat of tornados that passed by them. I can't explain why that happened, but if the viewer had weather call they would have been notified by up to 3 means for the event. You can learn more about Weather Call and even sign up by clicking here. Please note, Weather Call is good for anywhere in the U.S. so no matter where you live you can sign up for this life saving technology.

Much colder air will follow in behind this system as it moves eastward. By Monday morning, near freezing temperatures will be possible as far south as the Red River and some snow flurries/showers will be possible as far south as the Ozarks-OH River; however, accumulating snow will remain along and north of I-80. For those of you along the western shore of Lake Michigan from Green Bay to Chicagoland be ready for some more moderate to heavy snow. Already this season, Chicago you have seen 50.6". Last year you saw 60.3" and after this storm passes by you will likely be nearing this same total. The last time Chicago saw back-to-back winters with 50+" of snow was 1976-77/1977-78/1978-79 when 54.1", 82.3" and 89.7" occurred.

By Monday evening, the cold air will be through OH/TN Valley and making its way towards the Gulf Coast. Snow showers/flurries may even make it as far south as the AL/TN state line. Some very chilly air will continue to sink southward Monday night as a hard freeze is possible from the Mid along and north of I-40 with frost as far south as the FL Panhandle.

Wide Spread Severe Weather Today

Folks for the lower MS Valley through the Mid/Deep South and into the SE and TN Valley will see widespread severe weather today. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather as a result. The Moderate Risk encompasses most of MS/AL/Southern GA/Northern FL/Western TN. Cities included in the risk area are: Memphis, TN; Jackson, TN; Jackson, MS; Tupelo, MS; Gulfport, MS; Mobile, AL; Birmingham, AL; Muscle Shoals, AL; Huntsville, AL; Dothan, AL; Tallahassee, FL; Columbus, GA; Jacksonville, FL.

Due to the threat of a potential widespread severe weather outbreak for today, the SPC has also issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook. A threat for damaging winds, very large hail and tornadoes exist. Some tornadoes could become quite large and long lived. Stay tuned to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for the latest updates.

Current Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Severe t-storms will move north and east on Friday. The biggest threat will be across the Mid-Atlantic and main concern will be large hail and damaging winds.

Over this weekend, yet another powerful Spring system will eject out of the Rockies. With it will be a cold pool and that in turn will lead to another Blizzard from CO into the Dakotas. Southward, the cold air will battle with the warm moist air across the South setting up another day of potential severe weather on Sunday.

Next week, behind the system, will be quite chilly for many across the eastern half of the U.S. Frost and freezes will be likely into the South again so make sure to be ready to cover those tender plants if you have already planted them.