Fast, Ever Changing Spring Pattern

A fast flow in the weather pattern will mean quick moving weather systems every few days across much of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. A quick warm up will occur ahead the systems then a bit of a cool down behind them. First system is moving across the central U.S., today, with another snow event further north across the Upper Midwest.

Further south, from the OH Valley to the Gulf Coast showers and thunderstorms will occur. A slight risk of severe storms is possible through Wednesday morning along the Gulf Coast from LA through the FL panhandle.

On Wednesday, this system will have shifted the rains further east from NY to FL while the next system begins to spin up across the panhandle of TX. This will set up yet another major snow event for the eastern slopes of the Rockies from WY through CO. Very heavy snow is again possible from eastern CO into western KS Wednesday night through Thursday.

Ahead of the storm system, more showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the South and Gulf Coast. There will also be a threat for severe weather across eastern OK/northeast TX/western AR just in advance of the system, Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Main threat will be large hail.

The severe weather threat will shift eastward into the Deep South Thursday afternoon and into the TN/OH Valleys Thursday evening into Friday morning. This could become a widespread event across the TN/MS/AL so be weather aware. If you have not already done so, I encourage you to sign up today for weather call.

Yet another powerful system will eject into the Southern Plains on Saturday and with it, more snow is likely across much of the Rockies into the Dakotas. Possibly yet another blizzard so stay tuned.

The system will shift into the MS/OH/TN Valleys on Sunday. More snow will be likely across much of the upper Midwest with storms, possibly severe again possible along and south of the OH River.

Looks like this pattern will continue through much of next week so for those of you along and north of I-80 yearning for Spring warmth, sorry, as it appears that winter wants to hold on with cold and yet more snow.

Major Storm System to Affect Many

The major Spring storm alluded to in yesterday's post has sunk into CO today and it is already delivering heavy snow to much of the eastern slopes of the Rockies and along the I-25 corridor from Colorado Springs to Denver. Here is a live look from Colorado Springs.

This is just the start because as we head through the 24-36 hours heavy snow will spread across all of eastern CO, northeastern NM the panhandles of TX/OK and into western KS. A broad swath of 12+" of snow will occur in this zone through Friday.

As the low pulls through northeastern TX Friday afternoon, in its advance warm and unstable air will be pushed into the Mid-South. By late Friday and into early Saturday, this unstable air mass will interact with a progressing cold front and widespread storms are expected from the Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley. This is setting up for a potential widespread severe weather event and as a result, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded their day 2 convective outlook to include a moderate risk for severe weather Friday into Saturday morning. The risk exists for not only severe winds and large damaging hail but also the potential for destructive tornadoes.

Saturday morning, the center of the storm system will be located near the Memphis area. On the northwest side of the storm system will still remain a band of moderate to heavy snow from OK through eastern KS into extreme western MO. From the storm system southward will be a line of strong to severe t-storms. The entire system will progress ENE through the day Saturday. By evening the center will be located over IN. This track would allow the potential for rain to turn to snow as far east as St. Louis Saturday evening. The strong to severe storms will have pushed into the Carolinas southward into the SE.

Tale of Two Seasons…Winter for Some, Spring Severe Storms for Others

One major storm system that brought blizzard conditions to the Dakotas and severe weather to the MS Valley is now exiting into Canada; however a trailing cold front across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley will be the focus point for more showers and t-storms tonight into early Thursday, some of which may be severe as a wave of energy rides along the frontal boundary from TX into the OH Valley. But first, as promised yesterday, here are some of the snowfall totals from this week's blizzard across the Black Hills:

Location and State	Amount
Lead, SD	43.7"
Deadwood, SD	30.7"
Spearfish, SD	25"
Rapid City, SD	11.5"
Recluse, WY	15"
Gillette, WY	10"

Tornado and Severe T-Storm Watches have already been issued across portions of east TX this afternoon and more watches are likely through the evening and overnight hours, mainly across the Gulf coast from TX to MS where the SPC has already issued a Slight Risk for severe weather. Predominant threat is large hail and strong winds; however, a few tornadoes are possible.

Attention then turns to the Pacific NW region where a powerful Spring storm will spin up. This system will bring a tale of two seasons, Winter and Spring. First the winter threat, more snow. The system is already getting organized over eastern WA, northern ID and western MT. Snow is already being reported in several spots. By morning, the storm system will drop into western CO and moderate to heavy snow will be common across southeastern ID/western WY/western CO/UT. Winter Storm Warnings are already in effect for much of these areas where more than a foot of snow is possible through Thursday.

By Thursday evening, the low will drop into eastern NM with a chilly high pressure system over eastern MT. The two systems together will create a brisk ENE flow from the Plains into the eastern Rockies creating a perfect upslope snow event for the eastern slopes of CO. This includes most of the I-25 corridor and the cities of Denver, Colorado Springs, Ft. Collins, Aspen, Akron, Limon and Pueblo. These locations, too, will see up to 12" of snow with the high country seeing 1' to 3' of the white stuff.

Overnight Thursday and continuing into Friday, the storm system and the snow will track eastward. Moderate to heavy snow will occur across the TX/OK panhandles and western KS. The storm system will then track into IN by Saturday evening taking with it a band of snow from northern MO into WI. This system has the potential of even delivering heavy snow to the Kansas City area on Saturday but this system is still several days out and there are still plenty of uncertainties to pin things down specifically, today.

Now the flip side, the Spring side of the storm. This storm system will be pumping warm, juicy and unstable air out ahead of it from TX across the Gulf Coastal States beginning Thursday and continuing right into Saturday and then along the Atlantic Coast from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Sunday. What does this setup when you have warm, juicy and unstable air with a potent storm system and cold air on the opposite side? The answer is likelihood for widespread severe weather. A potential severe weather outbreak with the threat for large tornadoes will be possible with this event so it is advised that you stay up-to-date to future forecasts especially if you live from TX-GA.

Very Active Spring Pattern Brings Lots of Excitement…Plus AK Volcano is a Rumbling

The first in a series of powerful Spring storm systems is lifting into the Upper Midwest and the associated blizzard across the northern Plains is now beginning to wind down and weakening of the snowfall will continue through this evening. However, blizzard warnings do remain in effect for the western half of SD due to continued high winds blowing around the already heavy snowfall that has fallen. Travel is not advised. As of midday, Rapid City had reported 12" of snowfall. A more detailed list of snowfall with this event will be provided tomorrow.

Further South, a trailing cold front from the powerful lower pressure system is triggering a band of rain and embedded t-storms. Some of these storms have already been severe over the past 24 hours. Most of the severe weather was strong winds and large hail; however 8 tornados were reported.

A continued risk for severe weather will continue through this evening and into Wednesday morning from the Mid and Lower MS Valley.

The front that will bring this severe weather will become stationary from TX to AL on Wednesday and a second wave of energy will develop along it in eastern TX and track off to the NE into the TN and OH Valley through Thursday morning. As it approaches, it will bring the threat of severe weather with it from TX to AL. A threat for tornadoes will exist.

The severe threat will push further east and a bit further north Thursday as the storm system continues to move eastward.

Yet another powerful Spring system will begin to organize Wednesday evening across SE CO. Heavy snow is likely with this system from southeastern WY through much of CO Wednesday night. This heavy snow will slide eastward on Thursday into western KS and the Panhandles of TX/OK. Possible blizzard conditions will be possible. This system has the potential of delivering a late season snow even further eastward through KS/OK and into MO FRI and into IA/IL/WI on SAT. In addition, quite a bit of warm air will be pumped out in advance of this system. This will help set up conditions for severe weather from eastern TX through the lower MS Valley into MS/AL/TN FRI into SAT. Things are definitely interesting. Again, I cannot stress enough that you need to be prepared for severe weather and what you would do in the event of a warning. So now is the time to put together your plans and be ready.

Alaskan Volcano Erupts

In addition to all of this weather excitement in the lower 48, Redoubt volcano in Alaska is erupting and spewing ash. Redoubt is located southeast of Anchorage on the Cook Inlet. Seismic activity has been gradually increasing since this past fall and has really intensified since January. Sunday night at approximately 22:38 AKDT, Redoubt produced 5 explosive eruptions that lasted up to thirty minutes. These initial explosions ended around 5 AM AKDT, Monday. More eruptions began around 7:41 PM AKDT. The top of the associated ash cloud is estimated to be reaching 50,000' up into the atmosphere. Ash fall has been reported in several communities north of Anchorage and the NWS has been issuing Ash fall advisories. Here is an image from Monday.

A big concern is that Anchorage is a major hopping point for commercial air travel and cargo air transport and ash is a major threat to aircraft engines. As of now, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport's flight operations are not being affected; however if wind conditions shift further to the east instead of northerly as they are now, operations could become affected and even possibly cause the closure of the airport. If you are planning on flying into Anchorage over the next few days make sure you check with your air carrier.

Additional threats from Redoubt will be pyroclastic flows. One has been observed by the Alaskan Volcano Observatory's webcam on the north flank of the volcano. Also occurring are mud flows in the Drift River basin and may affect Cook Inlet. For the latest details you may check the Alaskan Volcano Observatory's website. Here is a current live view of the volcano.

Spring Time Rock ‘n Roll

Spring is revving up to full throttle. A vigorous Spring storm system is gaining strength across western NE. A sharp contrast of temperatures is accompanying this system with 70s from southeast SD southward to TX and eastward through the SE and 20s & 30s across much of the Intermountain West.

In the warm sector, showers and thunderstorms are likely, today. Some of the thunderstorms will be severe. A large slight risk area has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center that stretches through the Plains into northern TX with a moderate risk bull's-eye across southeastern KS into north central OK. Overall, the biggest severe threat will be damaging winds and hail; however, a threat for tornadic activity exists within the moderate risk area.

On the flip side, into the cold sector across the northern Rockies, a blizzard will roar. The hardest impacted areas will be the Black Hills of SD, the panhandle of NE and much of eastern WY. A large swath of 6" to 12" of snow with wind gusts up to 60 mph is expected. The Black Hills could see has much as 3 feet of snow!

Here is a live look at Deadwood, SD who could see the 3 feet of snow today into Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the heart of the system will move into MN. With it, the snowy and potential blizzard conditions will move across the Dakotas. A trailing cold front from the low will trigger more showers and thunderstorms across the MS Valley. The risk for severe weather will shrink, though, and mainly only cover the lower MS Valley.

Also, a cool down will push east through the Upper MS Valley and through much of the Plains southward into OK. The warmest air will also shift eastward from the southern Great Lakes through the OH/TN Valleys and across the Gulf Coast.

The cold front will push further east on Wednesday and a large cool down will occur along and north of I-40 as temperatures will fall back into the 50s and 60s. Rain will spread into the OH Valley with thunderstorms further south from the TN Valley back into TX. A few of these storms could reach severe levels.

A second wave of energy will spin up across TX on Thursday and move across the Gulf Coastal region Thursday through Friday. This will set up a very wet end of the week from TX to GA. In addition, a continued risk for severe weather from the lower MS Valley into the Southeast.

As a result of all of the potential severe weather this week, if you have not already done so, now is the time to have your severe weather awareness plan in affect. Do you know what you are going to do if a severe thunderstorm/tornado/flash flood warning is issued for when you are at: Home, Office, and School or while you are in a care? Do you have a NOAA weather radio? If not I suggest getting one. Many radio/TV stations have partnered up with a local business and Midland to make them easily available to you. Also, have you signed up for Weather Call? Maybe you are asking what is Weather Call? Weather Call is a new service that is available that provides immediate notification when a warning is issued for a specific location that you specify such as home or office. The National Weather Service began last year issuing warnings on a storm base scenario and not by the county. With a weather radio, though, you are still notified by the county for warnings. With Weather Call the specific region being warning is all that is notified reducing the false alarm rate. This service is very affordable, just $6.95 per year! This includes warnings for one specified location and up to 3 notification methods such as a phone call, text message or email. Several TV stations across the country are offering this service such as WAAY-TV here in the TN Valley. You can sign up for anywhere in the U.S. through WAAY-TV or any of the many TV stations offering the service. If you would like to learn more or possibly even sign up for Weather Call simply click here. Also if you already have Weather Call I would love to hear how it has already worked for you so simply please just leave a comment or you may email me at dopplerdale@dopplerdale.com

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Cool First Day of Spring but Spring Warmth & Storms Quickly Return

A cool Canadian air mass will encompass most of country from the MS Valley eastward to the Atlantic Coast on the first day of Spring. Cool conditions will continue, on Saturday but a gradual warming trend will begin on Sunday for most. The cool air will hang for a while longer, though, for the eastern Great Lakes into New England as a secondary cool shot will arrive early next week.

With the warming trend comes the return of a moister atmosphere, too. A few showers and t-storms will be possible Saturday across the midsection of the country. A much higher chance for thunderstorms will arrive on Monday for the Plains. In fact, severe weather is possible. The area of showers and t-storms with some severe storms will push into the MS Valley on Tuesday.

Also on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday, a potential blizzard will be brewing from Wyoming into the Dakotas. Since this is still several days away, details are still a bit sketchy to make sure you monitor local news and here for the latest on this potential blizzard.

Winter Wants to Hold On, But Will It?

Spring officially arrives Friday at 6:53AM CDT; however, Friday will likely be the coolest day of the week for many as yet another shot of Canadian air moves ESE from the Upper Midwest into the eastern 1/3 of the nation. The good news is this will be a very brief shot of cooler air and the coldest will be held north of I-80.

A warming trend will begin already Saturday across the Plains to the MS River then further east on Sunday and continue right into next week. A BIG Spring storm will spin up across the Plains late this weekend. It will help pump warmer and more moist air across the center of the nation with also the addition of windy conditions for Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely across much of TX through the Plains and into the Midwest, Sunday and again on Monday as the system will be slow to move out. This will likely set up a severe storm risk from SD to TX on Monday. Stay tuned for further updates regarding this potential severe weather event. And since there will be a chance for severe weather in the near future, now is a good time to make sure your weather radios are working and that you have signed up for Weather Call. If you have not signed up yet for Weather Call, simply click here and you can learn more and sign up. I strongly recommend it to help provide you with the best warning information specifically for your home/office/school.

Weather History for Today

Today marks the date of the nation's deadliest tornado, the Tri-State Tornado. The Tri-State Tornado occurred during the afternoon of March 18, 1925 and crossed through 3-states, hence the name. The tornado first touched down near the town of Ellington, MO around 1 PM and traveled a distance of 219 miles finally ending its devastation near Princeton, IN. This length still is the longest continuous tornado track on record.

It was rated as an F5 tornado on the Fujita Scale and had a mile-wide base. The first deaths occurred in Ellington, MO with a total of 11 deaths in Missouri as a result of the twister. It then crossed the MS River into IL where it did some of biggest death and destruction. The town of Gorham was obliterated around 2:30 PM and was the site of 34 more deaths. The tornado then continued to move to the northeast with a forward speed as high as 73 MPH. Next in its path were the towns of Murphysboro, De Soto, Hurst-Bush and West Frankfort. Within just ¾ of an hour, nearly 550 deaths occurred with the most occurring in Murphysboro, 234. The total death count in the state of IL alone was 613, the most in a single state due to a tornado in U.S. history.

It continued eastward crossing the Wabash River into Indiana affecting the communities of Griffin, Owensville and Princeton. Around 4:30 PM, after nearly 3 ½ hours, the tornado lifted and was just a memory. But left behind was at least 695 deaths, 2,027 injured and an estimated $16.5 million of damage, when adjusted for inflation, it is about $1.4 billion! This amount has only been exceed by two destructive tornadoes that affected the City of St. Louis.

A complete slide show of images will be added this evening so make sure to check back.

Luck of the Irish Brings Beautiful St. Patrick’s Day to Many

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

Many of you are experiencing a very beautiful St. Patrick's Day with lots of sunshine and nice mild temperatures.

A look at today would make you think Spring has sprung, but be aware if you live east of the MS River and north of I-40 as another cold front is on its way and will sweep southeast out of the Northern Plains over the next couple of days. Temperatures will be cooler for a few days behind the front, but good news, the overall weather pattern will be rather progressive so a warming trend will return for the weekend.

Spring Officially Arrives Friday, but It Will Appear It Arrived a few Days Earlier

A very wet end of last week from eastern TX through much of the SE; however, the rain was very welcomed. Below is an image of the amount of rainfall that fell during this period. Some areas saw as much as 6" to 8".

Rain will continue today for portions of the SE up into the Mid-Atlantic but drier days lie ahead.

This image of the Water Vapor Satellite, which helps show where large amounts of moisture in the atmosphere exist, shows a large area of dry air now intruding to the NE out of Old Mexico into TX and portions of the Southern Plains while things still remain relatively moist from LA northeast into PA. The dry air will continue to push eastward over the next 24 hours and so the end of the wet times is near for the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.

With the drying out comes a very welcomed warming trend. Today, the warming will already be taking place from SD eastward in to southern MN southward through much of the Plains and the MS Valley. How about temperatures around 60 today in Minneapolis; where it has been a very chilly and snowy winter. A large swath of 80s will also exist today from southwestern KS south through much of TX.

The warming trend pushes eastward on St. Patrick's Day, from the Great Lakes south through the OH Valley and southward to the Gulf Coast.

For those of you heading south to one of the many Florida Beaches this week for Spring Break, it is looking GREAT! Temperatures will be in the 80s for most of the Florida Peninsula while 70s will be the rule across the Panhandle. It will also be mainly dry, too. As a result, make sure you have your sun screen and apply it often. The UV Index will be high, ranging from 9 across northern FL and the Panhandle to 11 across the south tip of the state. And if you are planning on taking a dip, be prepared. Waters are still a bit chilly across the Florida Panhandle while further south waters are in the middle 70s and pleasant.

For those of you in the northern tier of the nation, make sure you enjoy the next couple of days of warmth as another cold front is poised to drop south through the eastern ½ of the nation. By the official start of Spring, Friday, it will feel much cooler for most of us yet again. 30s and 40s will dominate from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. The cooling will even make it all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Good news for the week, it doesn't appear that any widespread severe weather is likely so a nice quiet start to Spring is expected.

Ice and Snow from Midsouth to VA, Wet and Chilly Across the Deep South

A wave of energy will move from AR through western TN and into KY and southern VA today into tonight. With it will be a mix bag of precipitation. Freezing rain, sleet and some snow is expected along the I-40 corridor through AR into the Memphis area; however, temperatures will be hovering around the freezing point so this will help keep accumulations down. Further north and east, as the wave of precipitation moves eastward, more snow vs. ice is expected with rain further south. Snowfall accumulations will be light, 1"-3", through much of KY into VA.

Attention will then turn south into TX and the western Gulf of Mexico for Friday and Friday night. A stationary frontal boundary that will stretch near the Gulf Coast from FL into eastern TX will have several low pressure systems spin up along it and move eastward. On Friday afternoon through Friday night, a wave will develop off the Eastern TX coast. This wave will bring widespread rain from eastern TX through LA, southern AR, into MS and AL on Friday. Some areas of heavy rainfall are also possible, especially from northern LA into MS.

On Saturday, most of this same area will see continued rainfall; however, its edge will spread further north and east. Through Saturday evening, a maximum area of rainfall, generally along I-20 through LA and MS, will reach 3" to 5". This band of heavy rainfall will spread further east through the TN Valley through Sunday; however amounts will be slightly less.

Old Man Winter Has Returned, More Ice Possible Across Mid-South

Much colder air continues to sink south and east today turning the season back to winter from spring. A wet pattern is also going to set up through the end of the week from TX through much of the Mid-South/TN Valley/Southern OH Valley. Question is setting up regarding the potential for more winter weather along and north of I-40 from eastern OK into western TN. How about yet another ice storm? Looks like this is very possible from Fort Smith, AR to the Memphis Metro Area tonight into tomorrow. The Memphis National Weather Service Office has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for this possibility. The good thing, if there could be one for an ice storm, is that generally along the I-40 corridor, temperatures will be near the freezing point.

The highest accumulations of ice, ¼" to ¾", will fall across the following counties in AR: White, Woodruff, Cross, St. Francis and Crittenden; and the following counties in TN: northern Shelby, Tipton, Lauderdale, Haywood, Crockett, Madison, Gibson, Carroll, Henderson, Benton, Humphreys, Dickson and Cheatham.

To the south of the icing, much needed rainfall will occur from TX through much of the Gulf Coastal States starting tonight and continuing in waves through Sunday. This region of the country is already running between 3 and 8 inches below normal for this year and the year is only a little over 2 months in.

Through Sunday, as much as 3" of rain could fall from northeast LA into MS and portions of the TN Valley

Lastly, if you like to look up into the heavens and are a star gazer, you may be able to have a real treat this evening. If you live in FL GA and the Carolinas and look SE at 9:20 PM EDT, you will have a chance of seeing Space Shuttle Discovery as it launches into space. The viewing period will only last for 8 minutes. Further north and west from AL to the Mid-Atlantic and into New England, you may also have a chance to spot the shuttle on its flight into orbit but it will determine greatly on the amount of clouds and unfortunately I believe there may be too many to get a good view but it won't hurt to give it a shot.

Officially It’s Still Winter

In case the last few days have made you think that winter is over with temperatures across much of the southern 2/3 of the nation in the 70s and 80s, remember, officially winter runs until March 20. Mother Nature is providing a harsh reality check today with yet another blizzard for the Upper Midwest and temperatures that are turning significantly colder across the Heartland, today and the Southeast, tomorrow.

A major late winter storm with wind and heavy snow will pound the Dakotas/MN/northwestern WI today into early Wednesday. Snowfall accumulations in excess of a foot a likely across much of northern MN with winds in excess of 30 mph, too.

Further south and east across the Gulf Coast into the Southeast, temperatures will soar into the 80s. A battle ground will set up along the cold front that will be delivering the resurging cold air this evening and overnight. A line of t-storms will develop along this front from IL southwestward into MO, western AR, eastern OK and northeast TX late this afternoon. A few of these t-storms could become severe with damaging winds, large hail and possibly a few tornadoes although damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. The SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms through early Wednesday morning from southern MI southwestward into eastern OK. Some cities included within the risk area include: Dayton, OH; Indianapolis, IN; Louisville, KY; Paducah, KY; Champaign, IL; Springfield, IL; Carbondale, IL; St. Louis, MO; Cape Girardeau, MO; Branson, MO; Fayetteville, AR; Ft. Smith, AR; McAlester, AR.

The cold front will make it from SC to along the Gulf Coast and westward into eastern TX by Wednesday evening. Temperatures along and north of I-20 will likely be nearly 30 degrees colder on Wednesday and yet another 5 to 8 degrees colder on Thursday. The TN Valley, for example, will be in the low 80s today, near 60, at best, Wednesday and only near 50 on Thursday and Friday.