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Thursday, December 17, 2009

An Updated Look at the Christmas Forecast

Are you "Dreaming of a White Christmas"?

Many of us each year dream of a white Christmas but we know it is just going to be a dream unless we head to the mountains or someplace else where we know snow will be. This year, though, many of us who normally have to just hold on to a dream of a white Christmas may actually get what we dream for as a present from Mother Nature. As I hinted to last week, the weather pattern setting up for Christmas week appears generally to be cold. Specifics were up in question and still are but things are becoming clearer and it appears that much of the U.S. along and north of I-70 will see below normal temperatures for Christmas week. In addition, the Southeast will be in the cold, at least to start out the week. They will likely warm some towards midweek but things could turn colder again Christmas Day.

Now, how about that snow? Model guidance has been bouncing around on exact track but they have been consistent that past few days in indicating that a major storm system will move out of the Southern Plains, likely next Tue/Wed. It then will likely track eastward through the southern U.S. before turning northeastward Christmas Day. The system will likely tap into Gulf moisture and send it northward over an already existing cold airmass providing the ingredients for widespread snow and ice for the areas bounded by I-40 on the south and I-70 on the north from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Now this can change quite a bit since Christmas is a week away still but this is definitely a system to watch. To help you keep an eye on this system and what to expect I will be posting a daily update now through at least this weekend. So, for those of you from Amarillo-Oklahoma City-Little Rock-St. Louis-Nashville-Louisville your dreams may be coming true. Stay tuned!

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