Fast-Paced Flow to Continue with Surges of Cold; First Look at the Christmas Forecast

A very fast and active weather pattern will continue across the United States for the next week or more. The pattern is definitely setting up as anticipated with El Nino in charge. The southern jet stream is very active with a quick flow across the southern tier of the U.S. This is bringing several quick-moving storm systems from the Pacific Coast through the southern Rockies and into the Southeast. In addition, several surges of cold-arctic airmasses have made it south through the Plains and eastward into the Ohio Valley and portions of New England. This has already set up to the recent major snow that just occurred from the Plains into the Great Lakes. The same storm system also brought very heavy rains to southern California and other locations in the South such as the Tennessee Valley. I had 6.8" of rain in less than 24-hours here at my house in the Huntsville area.

As we head through this upcoming weekend two storm systems will take focus. The first will be spinning up in the western Gulf of Mexico tonight into Friday. This system will bring more abundant rains from eastern Texas to the Florida panhandle through Saturday morning. An additional 1"-3" of rain is possible through 6 AM Saturday, especially from southern Louisiana through southern Mississippi. The heaviest rains will move then eastward through Saturday and into Sunday through southern Alabama and into South Carolina. Some snow will be possible along the spine of the Appalachians from eastern Tennessee/western North Carolina northward into western Maryland by Sunday morning.

The second storm system will be approaching the northern California coast by Friday morning. More widespread rains are likely through California as a result with accumulating snow for the Sierras. The storm system will not move much through Sunday morning so some significant rainfall and snowfall will be possible. Some locations in the Sierras could see as much as another 3 to 4 feet of snow from Friday morning through Sunday morning. Accumulating snow will also spread further east through much of Nevada, Idaho Utah and northern Arizona. Much of California will see rainfall during this same time period reach at least 1 inch and as much as 3 inches. This storm system will then finally move eastward into the southern Rockies by Tuesday morning. This will help spin up yet another western Gulf of Mexico low. At the same time, yet another surge of arctic air will sink through the Plains. The combination of the cold front and the Gulf low will bring another round of heavy rain, possibly strong storms, to the South from Louisiana to east Tennessee, Tuesday. It will also become very windy along and east of the Mississippi river into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Now a look out two weeks towards Christmas. A lot can change from now until then; however, looking at some different parameters it appears that it could be quite cold from the Plains to the Ohio Valley and as far south as the I-40 corridor. What about the chances for a White Christmas? Well, based on the current pattern, I believe there is a higher than normal chance of snow being on the ground Christmas morning from Missouri to Ohio and northward. Also for much of the intermountain west from the high country of California through Nevada, northern Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Colorado. I will fine tune this over the next week and begin to provide potential specifics this time next week.