Busy Winter Pattern Setting Up from Plains Eastward

Two Storm Punch Could Bring Season's First Snow from the Ozarks to Mid-Mississippi Valley to Michigan

A one two punch storm system is organizing across SE New Mexico and will be tracking eastward over the next 24 hours. In addition, a second storm system will be dropping south through the Northern Plains. These two systems will be phasing, or coming together, on Wednesday and a powerful low pressure system will track from the southeast Texas coast to near Louisville, Kentucky by Wednesday evening. A sharp shot of cold air will sink rapidly southward behind this moisture rich system and likely rainfall will be changed over to accumulating snow.

Still many questions on the exact path this storm will be taking and how much wrap around moisture will accompany the system from Missouri through Illinois and into Michigan. Models are showing similar solutions but not exactly and I still have some doubt. Would like to see this evening's model runs after the next upper-air balloon launch at 6 PM CT to nail this forecast down. However, you are not wanting to hear that so here is my initial thinking and again, by 11 PM CT tonight, I will post another forecast that will nail things down a bit more.

I am anticipating an area of accumulating snow to fall from the Ozarks into central Illinois and then continuing into southern Lower Michigan. In general, the snowfall accumulation will be in the range of 1"-3"; however, I would not be surprised to see a band of 3"-5" across the northeastern Ozarks and again across central Illinois.

A limiting factor to the snowfall accumulation will be the rapid speed of the system and the relatively warm ground. Soil temperatures are generally 40-46 degrees through Missouri and Illinois. Also, pavement temperatures are in the 50s, too.